UFC Vegas 24 may be headlined by Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum, but there are plenty of other great fights to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup on the card. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match and a pick to win; this info will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
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UFC DFS Picks: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Whittaker vs. Gastelum
I am extremely excited for this main event between Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum. This fight has been in the making for quite some time now. Gastelum is coming off an impressive victory over Ian Heinisch, but before that was struggling against the elite. Whittaker has put together back-to-back impressive victories over Darren Till and Jared Cannonier, and it’s tough to argue against his resume. This will be a close fight that could remain on the feet for 5 rounds, which could limit DFS production. It is OK to avoid the main event for some of your lineups, and obviously Gastelum has an attractive salary at $7,100. Traditionally southpaw fighters are difficult matchups, but Whittaker has plenty of experience against them. Have exposure to both fighters.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Whittaker ($9,100)
Klose vs. Stephens
In the co-main event of the evening, two hard-hitting lightweights square off with Drakkar Klose taking on Jeremy Stephens. Stephens is bumping back up to lightweight, and both men are looking to rebound from knockout defeats. Few men have more experience in the UFC than Stephens, and his resume speaks for itself. Stephens is on a four fight losing streak, but it’s against the top of the division. Klose hasn’t fought nearly the strength of schedule as Stephens, and is looking to rebound from a knockout defeat to Beneil Dariush.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Stephens ($8,400)
Arlovski vs. Sherman
Next is an interesting fight between Andrei Arlovski and Chase Sherman in the heavyweight division. Sherman looked fantastic in his return to the UFC, but was popped for PEDs following the bout. It’s tough to gauge how much of his performance was from PEDs, but he’s up against a true legendary heavyweight in Arlovski. Throughout the years, Arlovski has adjusted his style, and he could do well in this matchup. Arlovski is good at checking kicks, and picking his opponents apart from the outside. Sherman is an excellent GPP target due to the unknowns surrounding his PED usage.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Arlovski ($8,500)
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Alhassan vs. Malkoun
Next up is the once highly-touted Abdul Razak Alhassan taking on Jacob Malkoun. This fight is a head-scratcher, and clearly seems like a favorable matchup for Alhassan. Throughout his UFC tenure, Alhassan has proven to be a dangerous knockout threat. There are too many unknowns surrounding Malkoun, other than the fact he is Whittaker’s jiu-jitsu coach. Alhassan will walk away victorious with another knockout on his record, and could break the slate.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Alhassan ($9,300)
Pena vs. Munoz
This next fight between Luis Pena and Alex Munoz might be flying under the radar. Munoz should have a significant wrestling advantage in this matchup, despite being outgunned on the feet. Pena is a talented fighter with a giant frame for the division, but he has been underwhelming in the UFC. Pena should look to keep this fight on the outside on the feet, but he often engages in the clinch which could lead to plenty of takedowns for Munoz. It’s hard for me to picture Pena finishing Munoz, when Nasrat Haqparast was unable to.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Munoz ($7,500)
Cortez vs. Kish
In a women’s flyweight bout, Tracy Cortez takes on Justine Kish. This fight doesn’t seem to be a priority for me, but Cortez has potential. Throughout this contest Cortez could display crisp striking, while mixing in takedowns to solidify rounds. Perhaps Cortez can surprise with an expensive salary of $9,000, but quick finishes limit upside. Kish is a complete dart throw.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Cortez ($9,000)
Romanov vs. Espino
This fight screams GPP and you will likely need the winner of this bout for the optimal lineup. Both Alexander Romanov and Juan Espino are talented wrestlers in the heavyweight division, which could ultimately come down to cardio and top position. Whichever fighter has the better gas tank and is able to implement top control will likely win this bout, but who knows who it will be.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Romanov ($8,800)
Penne vs. Godinez
In the strange matchup of the evening, Jessica Penne takes on Lupita Godinez. There are so many unknowns surrounding Penne’s inactivity, but facing off against an interesting prospect in Godinez is no easy task. Throughout Penne’s career she survived on a serviceable ground game, but over time was exposed on her feet. Godinez should look at Penne’s defeats and try to replicate a heavy striking approach mixed with strong takedown defense. Godinez has potential but it’s a tough task to pay off $9,200 in a UFC debut.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Godinez ($9,200)
Meerschaert vs. Fabinski
Up next is a middleweight clash between Bartosz Fabinski and Gerald Meerschaert. This matchup deserves prioritizing because of this stylistic clash and think both fighters have potential. Fabinski is a fighter who looks for takedowns constantly in his matchups, but his kryptonite is facing submission savvy fighters, and Meerschaert is just that. Meerschaert possesses poor takedown defense, and is going up against a strong takedown artist, so either one could break the slate. Split your exposure.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Meerschaert ($7,900)
Hubbard vs. Bush
Austin Hubbard will be fighting Dakota Bush in a lightweight clash. Hubbard has fought some legitimate wrestlers and grapplers in the UFC, and will now be welcoming Bush to the UFC. Hubbard comes from a strong team and should be well-prepared for this fight. Bush could run into some trouble in this matchup, as Hubbard will nullify his strengths and test him throughout.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hubbard ($8,900)
Fairn vs. Nunes
In a women’s bantamweight bout, Zarah Fairn takes on Josiane Nunes. This is an ugly matchup because Fairn has two UFC appearances, both in which she lost in the first round to Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer. This is a much better matchup for Fairn, though, where she can showcase her striking skills and keep the fight on the outside with her length. Nunes is a Thai-fighter who looks to close the gap and implement the clinch. It’s tough to know what to expect in this matchup.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Fairn ($7,600)
Gravely vs. Birchak
Kicking off UFC Vegas 24 is a bantamweight banger between Tony Gravely and Anthony Birchak. Admittedly Gravely is surprising has high hopes within the division. Gravely’s well-rounded game will eventually have him ranked within the division, as he can strike, wrestle and dominate opponents throughout. Birchak is a tough veteran of the sport with some impressive finishes on his resume, but he will be out-gunned in all areas of the fight. For those looking for an extreme leverage play, Birchak is the guy. It will be a dominant performance for Gravely, though.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Gravely ($9,400)
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