Welcome UFC fans, UFC Vegas 58 is live from the Apex in Las Vegas, headlining the main event is a lightweight fight between Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev which should be full of excitement. Below are some MMA DFS picks and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC Vegas 58 and find some of the best UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC Vegas 58: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev MMA DFS Picks
Top End UFC Picks
David Onama| DraftKings: $9,300 , FanDuel: $22
Onama should be relieved just to stay on the card after Austin Lingo pulled out this week. He suffered the first loss of his career when he moved up to lightweight to face-off against Mason Jones, who defeated Onama via decision. That said, Onama then moved back down to featherweight where he made quick work of Gabriel Benitez with a first-round knockout. Our Top Fighters Tool gives Onama a 51.3% of being in the top-6 on this card – the highest on the slate, while Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give Onama 86% win odds with a 60% chance of a knockout. For UFC DFS lineups today, Onama is a solid play in all formats, even with high ownership.
Rafael Fiziev | DraftKings: $9,000 , FanDuel: $23
Fiziev is coming into this Matchup riding a five-fight winning streak, with three victories via decision and two via knockout. Furthermore, Fiziev had four bonuses, including two Fight of the Night awards and two Performance of the Night bonuses over that streak. Rafael dos Anjos will be Fiziev’s toughest challenge thus far in his career. I expect this will be a close fight and Fiziev could find the early knockout with his forward pressure. Our Top Fighters Tool has Fiziev with 48.6% of being in the top-six on this card, second only to Onama. Stokastic’s projections give Fiziev 67% win odds with a fair $9,000 price tag on DraftKings and $23 on FanDuel.
Mid Range UFC Picks
Jared Vanderaa| DraftKings: $8,600 , FanDuel: $20
Vanderaa will be looking to safe his UFC career when he goes up against Chase Sherman tonight. If Vanderaa comes out shows off his well-roundness and is able to take Chase Sherman to the mat, he has a strong shot at the victory with a solid MMA DFS score. Vanderaa has risk but if he implements the right game plan, he could find himself in the optimal today. Stokastic’s projections give Vanderaa 65% win odds with a 40% chance for a knockout. With only 25% projected ownership and a 31% chance of being in the top-six, he makes for a nice leverage spot on a slate without many to choose from.
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UFC Value Picks
Armen Petrosyan | DraftKings: $7,300 , FanDuel: $14
Petrosyan is coming into this matchup off a split-decision win over Gregory Rodrigues, where he landed 127 significant strikes. This fight is dangerous for both men because Caio Borralho can be caught moving into strikes when pressing forward and Petrosyan could struggle with Borralho’s solid wrestling game. Petrosyan has fight-ending power and could end the fight at any moment. I expect this fight to be close, but we could see Petrosyan landing a fight-ending power shot early. Stokastic’s projections give Petrosyan 32% win odds, which decent, given the price tag.
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