UFC 283 Picks & Preview: Teixeira Takes on Hill for Vacant Light Heavyweight Title

On Saturday, the UFC will return to Brazil for UFC 283 live from Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The main card will air on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+. The main event will feature former champion Glover Teixeira and Jamahal Hill fighting for the vacant light heavyweight title. In the co-main event, for the fourth time Deiveson Figueiredo faces off against Brandon Moreno for the flyweight title. Below are some MMA DFS picks the with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC 283.

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MMA DFS Picks: UFC 283 Glover Teixeira-Jamahal Hill

Shamil Abdurakhimov $6,500 vs. Jailton Almeida $9,700

Shamil Abdurakhimov

  • Age: 41
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 258 lbs.
  • Reach: 76 ins.
  • Record: 20-7-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 54%
  • Betting Odds: +600

Shamil Abdurakhimov has bounced back from an unsuccessful UFC debut by winning five of his last six, among them a nasty knockout over Marcin Tybura. That said, he’s now winless in three straight and will be looking to get back on track with an upset over Jailton Almeida. This will be an extremely tough matchup for Abdurakhimov, and given his recent struggles off his back and facing such a sharp jiu-jitsu practitioner, it could spell huge trouble for him inside the Octagon once again. Abdurakhimov has developed good freestyle wrestling and a solid top game early on in his career. But facing such a strong opponent in Almeida, he should have another disappointing trip to the Octagon on Saturday.

Jailton Almeida

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 216 lbs.
  • Reach: 79 ins.
  • Record: 17-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 63%
  • Betting Odds: -1100

Jailton Almeida is coming off a huge victory over Anton Turkalj in September and will be looking to climb into the ranking with another impressive performance. He has a 100% finishing rate in his professional career, with 17 wins and only two losses. Almeida is a powerful striker with a solid ground game and a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He won his last three fights in the UFC, with two coming via submission and one via knockout. Expect Almeida to be well prepared and looking to put on a show with a possible first-round finish over Abdurakhimov.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Almeida. His sharp striking, power and durability will be too much for Abdurakhimov to withstand. Almeida has 88.8% win odds according to Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections and an 81.4 % chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Jailton Almeida via First-Round KO/TKO

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Gregory Rodrigues $9,100 vs. Brunno Ferreira $7,100

Gregory Rodrigues

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 185 lbs.
  • Reach: 75 ins.
  • Record: 13-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 57%
  • Betting Odds: -340

Gregory Rodrigues earned a Fight of the Night bonus his last time out with a nasty knockout over Chidi Njokuani in the second round. He will have the experience, along with a three-inch reach and a five-inch height advantage. Rodrigues is currently riding a two-fight winning streak, with both coming via knockout. Expect this to be extremely aggressive, with both men throwing bombs looking to land the finishing blow. It can be easy to forget how high level Rodrigues is when he is always relying on his power striking, but he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and extremely dangerous on the mat.

Brunno Ferreira

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5-foot-10
  • Weight: 184 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins.
  • Record: 9-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 62%
  • Betting Odds: +250

Brunno Ferreira is stepping in on 10 days’ short notice after Brad Tavares pulled out. He earned his UFC contract after knocking out Leon Aliu on The Contender Series in September. Ferreira boasts six wins via knockout and three via submission, and he will look to make a statement in his UFC debut. However, he will have a tough road ahead of himself against an incredibly durable Rodrigues, who showed his toughness by absorbing a nasty knee from Chidi Njokuani. Expect Ferreira to be aggressive in the first round, but the longer the fight goes the more it will favor Rodrigues.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Rodrigues, whose power striking, durability and ability to read his opponent will dent the unbeaten record of Ferreira. Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give Gregory Rodrigues 73.3% win odds and a 61.7% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Gregory Rodrigues via Second-Round KO/TKO.

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Gilbert Burns $9,300 vs. Neil Magny $6,900

Gilbert Burns

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 5-foot-10
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 71 ins.
  • Record: 20-5-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 57%
  • Betting Odds: -500

Gilbert Burns is coming off a disappointing unanimous decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev in April where he earned a Fight of the Night bonus. Over his career, Burns has relied on his world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu and highly regarded grappling. But in recent years, he has developed solid striking under the renowned kickboxing coach Henri Hooft. His last time out against Chimaev, Burns looked extremely sharp and well rounded, showing off his skills on his way to a very close decision loss. Expect Burns to take care of business against Neil Magny and establish himself firmly one again in the welterweight division.

Neil Magny

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 171 lbs.
  • Reach: 80 ins.
  • Record: 27-10-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 58%
  • Betting Odds: +340

Neil Magny is fresh off a victory over Daniel Rodriguez in November. He relied on his grappling against Rodriguez, taking him down five times before sealing a submission victory in the third round. Prior to that, Magny lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov via second-round submission in June. Magny is long and rangy and combines high-volume striking with solid clinch work and good grappling skills. He has become an extremely smart and well-rounded fighter but tends to be predictable when stepping inside the cage. If Magny decides to clinch with Burns, that could lead to another submission loss.

The pick on DraftKings and FanDuel is Burns. His power punching, timing and ability to get his opponent to the mat will seal the victory. Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give Burns 80.7% win odds and a 50.8% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Gilbert Burns via Second-Round Submission.

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Glover Teixeira $7,800 vs. Jamahal Hill $8,400

Glover Teixeira

  • Age: 43
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 205 lbs.
  • Reach: 76 ins.
  • Record: 33-8-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 60%
  • Betting Odds: +114

Glover Teixeira is coming off his first title defense, where he was on his way to victory until making a mistake that led to a submission win for Jiri Prochazka. He was originally expected to face off in a title rematch against Jiri Prochazka, but Prochazka chose to vacate the belt due to a shoulder injury. This is a great matchup, as Teixeira has veteran status and a wealth of experience and Jamahal Hill has powerful hands, athleticism and all the talent to become champion. Teixeira was on a six-fight winning streak prior to his loss to Prochazka, also earning three Fight of the Night bonuses and five finishes. Expect Teixeira to use his boxing to get inside and land heavy shots, withstanding damage along the way and looking to take Hill to the mat for the finish.

Jamahal Hill

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6-foot-4
  • Weight: 205 lbs.
  • Reach: 79 ins.
  • Record: 11-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 55%
  • Betting Odds: -146

Jamahal Hill is a dynamic striker with fast hands and excellent movement, but he struggles in the grappling department. He is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, with all coming via knockout. Hill earned Fight of the Night bonus against Thiago Santos and two Performance of the Night bonuses against Jimmy Crute and Jimmy Walker. Teixeira will be a tough test for Hill, as he has not been pressured by someone of Teixeira’s suffocating top game and mastery on the mat. Teixeira has suffered knockout losses before, and Hill has the power to put his lights out, but Teixeira has remained out of danger in recent years.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Teixeira, and Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give Glover Teixeira 43.8% win odds and a 35% chance for a knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Glover Teixeira via Third-Round Submission.

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