The UFC will be back live from the Apex in Las Vegas, featuring a men’s featherweight main event Calvin Katter vs. Arnold Allen, with the co-main featuring a welterweight bout Tim Means vs. Max Griffin. Below are some MMA DFS picks and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC Vegas 63 and find some of the best UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC Vegas 63 Picks: Katter vs. Allen DFS Plays
Top-End Pick: Christian Rodriguez | DraftKings: $9,400 , FanDuel: $18
Rodriguez is coming off a decision loss to Jonathan Pearce in February. Prior too, he was riding a seven-fight winning streak three via knockout and three vis submission. He will be moving down to bantamweight for this fight against Joshua Weems, who is stepping in on short-notice and this should be an interesting fight for Rodriguez facing a natural 135-pound fighter in Weems. That said, I expect Rodriguez to bring a high-paced fight, with big volume looking to seal his first UFC victory. Rodriguez should be better everywhere and find an early finish. According to Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections Rodriguez has 77% win odds with a 41.3% chance for a knockout.
Top-End Pick: Chase Hooper | DraftKings: $9,200 , FanDuel: $22
Hooper is coming off a spectacular performance win and his first Performance of the Night bonus, with a third-round knockout over Felipe Colares in May. He has been training in South Carolina, focusing on wrestling, and striking, the two areas he believes needs a lot of improvement. That said, I expect we see a more polished Hooper on the feet and on the ground in this bout. Look for Hooper to come out looking to make a statement, with an early submission win over Steve Garcia. The Top Fighters Too is also high on Hooper giving him 71.9% win odds with a 43.&5 chance of being the top six on this card.
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Mid-Priced Pick: Phil Hawes | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $17
Hawes has all the tools and skills to get through someone of the Caliber of Roman Dolidze, with his dangerous wrestling, elite submission skills, and huge power in his hands. He is coming off an impressive Performance of the Night bonus in June, with a second-round knockout over Deron Winn. Hawes has seven first-round finishes in his career and has finished ten of his opponents within two rounds. I expect Hawes to come out and push the pace looking for his eight first-round finish. Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give him 61.1% win odds with a 36.7% chance for a knockout.
Value Pick: Andrei Arlovski | DraftKings: $7,300 , FanDuel: $10
Arlovski is a veteran of the sport, and he will be looking to add another victory to his lustrous career. He has all the skills to win this fight against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, his striking, background in Sambo, and slick approach inside the octagon. Arlovski is coming off back-to-back decision wins over Jared Vanderaa and Jake Collier. I expect Arlovski’s range slick footwork and solid boxing should seal a decision victory over Lima. According to Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections he has 30.1% win odds.
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