Fantasy NASCAR DFS Picks: Go Bowling at the Glen at Watkins Glen

The field is set for Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Go Bowling at the Glen.

Fantasy NASCAR DFS Value Picks: Go Bowling at the Glen

Chase Elliott, 1st ($10,700 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

Watkins Glen is referred to as the “superspeedway” of road courses due to the impact of horsepower and speed on success here, rather than overall road racing prowess. In fact, with long straightaways and few turns and passing zones, it makes sense that as long as a driver has speed that it can make up for a lack of skill in racing on a road course. However, when Chase Elliott wins the pole with the car that ranked second in the single-speed practice category and third in the consecutive five-lap rankings, it doesn’t really matter because he can combine speed and talent to win on Sunday.

With the past three road races in mind, as the polesitter has been nearly impossible to pass, there’s no reason to think that this trend won’t continue on Sunday making Elliott live for all lineups, even cash game builds. With 90 laps on deck, there are more than enough laps for the polesitter to accumulate dominator points. Elliott should all but lock up the regular season championship on Sunday, giving him an extra 15-point cushion for the playoffs, so he has no need to points race. Therefore, he can pit early before stage breaks, assume the lead when the new stage begins, and start knocking down laps led and fastest lap points in pursuit of another victory.

Ross Chastain, 18th ($10,000 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

For those not willing to embrace the pole sitter, despite that driver being optimal in two straight road course events, Chastain offers upside at a similar salary to the likes of Elliott or Kyle Larson, albeit his comes via place differential. Despite his salary, Chastain could even be played with Elliott since there is a bevy of place differential options in the $6,000 range on DraftKings.

In 2022, Chastain has consistently been a threat to win road course events, and if he hadn’t galaxy-brained his way into a 27th-place finish at Indianapolis by taking the turn-one run-off, he should have made it four for four in finishing seventh or better at road courses. For those not playing a “dominator” in cash, Chastain is absolutely where lineups should begin. However, for those that do plan on playing a lap leader, Chastain could be added to that lineup due to race-winning upside from the 18th starting position.

Ryan Blaney, 26th ($9,200 DraftKings, $ 12,500 FanDuel)

This selection comes with a warning because there’s a good chance that Blaney will be racing one competitor — Martin Truex Jr. and it’s going to be odd keeping up with him throughout the race. With a 26-point cushion over Truex for the final playoff spot, Sunday could see Blaney racing for stage points, especially with the practice speeds he demonstrated on Saturday. Blaney was middle of the pack in both the short and long runs, and despite opening up at +1200 to win this race (BetMGM), his car looks far from a race-winning vehicle. Thus, if a team and driver know their vehicle probably won’t be in contention, it only increases the chances they go hunting for stage points to further increase their odds of taking the final playoff spot.

Therefore, don’t be shocked to see Blaney stay out when the rest of the field is pitting, at the end of both stages. This might mean he’s mired back in the field when the final segment begins, but with around 50 laps left in the race, that’s still more than enough time for him to move through the field once more and end his day with a solid top-15 result.

Cole Custer, 29th ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

Conventional wisdom will say to play Custer’s teammate, Aric Almirola, who starts seven positions further back at just $100 more on DraftKings. Both had similar practice speeds and when both are nearly identical in salary, side with the driver who has more place differential upside. However, Almirola looked dreadful in practice and his woes looked even worse in qualifying. This, unfortunately for Almirola, seems to be part of a bad saga for him in road courses this season as his finishes have gotten worse since posting back-to-back top 20 finishes at COTA and Sonoma. On the other hand, Custer has been trending up as his road course finishes have gone 23-21-15-9. Furthermore, Custer will have had valuable laps on Saturday in the Xfinity race that Almirola will not have.

There’s nothing to prevent someone from combining both Custer and Almirola on the same cash team. However, if faced with the choice of either Custer or Almirola as a “last driver in” scenario, Custer appears to come into Sunday with both a higher floor and ceiling.

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Christopher Bell, 38th ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)

During practice, Bell blew an engine and did not make a qualifying attempt, thus he starts one sport short of dead last. The honor of starting 39th belongs to Cody Ware who didn’t make a qualifying attempt either. Speed-wise, Bell was ranking around the middle of the pack with the 16th-fastest single-lap speed, and considering Toyota’s issues at road courses in 2022, he was on his way to qualifying and finishing mid-pack. However, with this starting position, he becomes a lock in cash games with the most place differential upside of anyone. With finishes of 12th and third at road courses this season, Bell does possess a ceiling as well, especially when one considers his seventh-place finish in this race last year. It’s going to take effort and speed, from a completely different engine, for Bell to finish in the top 10 but anything north of 20th will be a positive for cash purposes.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com