Following Chase Elliott‘s victory at the inaugural Cup Series race at Circuit of the Americas, NASCAR heads back “home.” Memorial Day weekend will be capped off by one of the crown jewels in the Cup Series calendar, the Coca-Cola 600. Let’s delve into the fallout from last week’s rain-shortened event in Austin and what to expect for NASCAR DFS purpose on DraftKings and FanDuel this Sunday evening at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Circuit of the Americas Recap
Rain, Rain, Go Away
In what can only be compared to a mid-Summer Gulf of Mexico-influenced weather event, the first-ever NASCAR race at Circuit of the Americas was a deluge. The rain has continued to fall across Texas even since Sunday afternoon. So much so, the only racing event NASCAR could have possibly seen was a road race.
However, the Austin area received so much rain that COTA began to see standing water in multiple areas of the track as the laps winded down. This standing water started to become a safety hazard as hydroplaning began to occur. Kurt Busch hydroplaning in a corner and nearly taking out his brother is one thing. Drivers coming down the long backstretch at 170 mph with no brakes or steering is a bird of a different feather. Eventually, NASCAR made the call to red-flag the race before deciding minutes later just to call it all together.
Driver safety should be a paramount concern. However, drivers were complaining about the loss of steering and vision issues after just a few laps into the race. Multiple wrecks happened throughout the day just because Driver A literally could not see Driver B through the rain and rooster-tails getting kicked up. Several drivers voiced their ire, but who knows if NASCAR makes adjustments in the future.
Playoff Picture
Now, just put past the mid-way point of the regular season, the playoffs picture is still hazy. Elliott’s win gave the Cup Series its 11th different winner thus far. Assuming Denny Hamlin continues his rampant pace and secures the regular-season championship, only four open spots remain for the playoffs. With 12 races remaining until the playoffs begin, there could easily be four more winless drivers “lock” in playoff spots with wins including Kevin Harvick who has still yet to grace the victory circle in 2021.
Chances are all 16 playoff spots will be occupied by race winners this season, and the results of the regular-season finale in Daytona will have major implications on that final spot.
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Coca-Cola 600 Race Preview & NASCAR DFS Strategy
Charlotte Motor Speedway
However, the road to Daytona begins one race at a time, this weekend at Charlotte. Racing action returns, this weekend, to the original intermediate track in the Series. Charlotte is a mile and a half, asphalt-paved, quad-oval, first built in 1959 by Bruton Smith and still operated by the Smith family to this day.
The Memorial Day race at Charlotte has long been considered one of the “Crown Jewel” races of NASCAR due to its longstanding history. A win here will go a long way into helping cement a driver’s place in NASCAR lore. For example, whatever one may think of Austin Dillon, he has a victory at Charlotte. That win was fueled by fuel strategy, oddly enough. Regardless, what matters is that win and the fact that he knocked down one of the “grand slams” of NASCAR.
This race matters so much to NASCAR that they’re not setting this weekend’s field via the formula. Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup will all set their fields via qualifying, save for rain “raining out” the qualifying sessions. This, unfortunately, means, for DFS players, that this weekend is going to look a lot like COTA. Both Xfinity and Trucks will qualify just hours before the race. The Cup Series, thankfully, will hold qualifying on Saturday and then race on Sunday evening.
NASCAR @ Charlotte Schedule for Trucks, Xfinity, & Cup:
Trucks- 5/28
Practice: 11:35 AM
Qualifying: 5:35 PM
🟢: 8:30 PMXfinity- 5/28-29
Practice: 4:35 PM Fri
Qualifying: 10:05 AM Sat
🟢: 1 PM SatCup- 5/27-29
Practice: 7PM Fri
Qualifying: 11:35 AM Sat
🟢: 6PM Sun— Phill Bennetzen has a NASCAR spreadsheet 🏎🏁 (@RaceSheetsDFS) May 24, 2021
Charlotte Baseline Information
One positive thing is actual track history to sort through. There are decades of races at Charlotte to parse through, but only the last four races are necessary. Over the last three seasons, NASCAR has raced at Charlotte four times. This used to be a bi-annual track with one race coinciding with Memorial Day and the other occurring during the playoffs. That second race became the Charlotte Roval event, so now we’re limited to just one race per year here on the oval.
However, thanks to the impact of COVID, NASCAR raced at Charlotte twice last season. The first race was the annual Coca-Cola 600 on the Sunday prior to Memorial Day. The second occurred just three days afterward. There are four races worth of data to look through. Although, consider not weighing that second 2020 race too heavily, as the field was set via inversion from Coca-Cola 600 results and was shortened to just 208 laps.
Sunday’s race, on the other hand, will see 400 laps, i.e., 600 miles. There will be longer races this season in terms of laps, but none will be longer in actual distance covered.
DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Construction
With 400 laps on the schedule, the first concern everyone has is just how many dominators should be in our lineups? Assuming qualifying doesn’t get rained out or go haywire, our baseline for dominators begins with two. Although those races were held under a different package, two match up with what we’ve seen in races of similar lap length in 2021. Two dominators are what I would look to in cash games on DraftKings and would also be my goal on FanDuel.
However, the “Laps Led data” page in the Race Sheets shows that this race has traditionally been a three-dominator race. In fact, in six of the past eight Coca-Cola 600 events, those races have seen three drivers lead 10% or more of the event. It should be noted there are two races where one driver ran away with the event. In 2016, Martin Truex Jr. led 392/400 laps from the pole position. Later in 2018, Kyle Busch led 377 of 400 laps from the pole as well. Be aware there are outliers just like Darlington and Dover in this past month.
Regardless, this race is typically a three-dominator event, and it reflects in the optimal lineup on DraftKings. In last year’s Coca-Cola 600, the optimal lineup included the top two lap leaders (Alex Bowman, Martin Truex Jr.), a semi lap leader who led just 38 laps but scored 50 fastest laps (Chase Elliott), and finally three chalky place differential drivers (Ryan Blaney, Cole Custer, Michael McDowell). This should be our guide for roster construction on Sunday evening. Two main dominators, a third driver who leads some but also gains fastest laps and finishes high, and then whatever place differential drivers are affordable.
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