Bills-Falcons + Bears-Commanders DFS Picks: Monday Night Mayhem Doubleheader (Week 6)

Monday Night Football brings the third doubleheader of the season, and the DFS world responded with some sizeable prize pools. A four-team player pool creates different, yet plenty of decision-making opportunities across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down for Bills-Falcons and Bears-Commanders NFL DFS picks for Week 6 Monday Night Football. Let’s get ready by analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Monday Night Football Week 6 NFL DFS Picks

Much like Week 4, there is only a one-hour difference in the start times for tonight’s action. That does not change much in the way of strategy, unless you are someone who really leans into late-swapping if your earlier plays are doing well or poorly. It makes the single-game prize pools a little smaller, particularly for the second game as compared to Week 2, when there was a three-hour difference in kickoffs.

Quarterback NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Jayden Daniels

Daniels was out for two weeks with a knee injury, though he wore a brace last Sunday, yet still had eight carries for 39 yards in Los Angeles, while the Chargers sacked him once. In his absence, veteran Marcus Mariota was able to keep the offense moving, and the team managed a 1-1 record. Terry McLaurin (quad) and Noah Brown (knee/groin) are out, and Deebo Samuel Sr. (heel) is going to be a game-time decision. Considering how thin the Commanders are at running back, this could be a heavy load for Daniels to shoulder.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Daniels has -114 odds on over 221.5 passing yards, -115 for his over 45.5 rushing yards prop and +115 for over 1.5 passing touchdowns, with +140 odds for an anytime touchdown. The Bears rank 23rd in overall DVOA, and the team is 20th against the pass.

Quarterback Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Allen, of course, is the reigning NFL MVP, and he is the current leader (+150) this season as well, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes II (+250) and a surprising Baker Mayfield (+450, all odds from Hard Rock). He is posting better numbers across the board through five games, though tonight will be a good test against a tough Atlanta defense that has the best passing DVOA in the league. That FTN-provided metric takes into account matchups, though this is really the first test for the Falcons since seeing Mayfield in the opener. Prior to last week’s bye, they got to face J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young and Mariota.

Williams started the season off with three multi-touchdown efforts, totaling seven aerial strikes and one rushing score. He was sacked only once in the last two games, which were the two Chicago victories this season. He is less efficient with his legs, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, down from 6.0 during his rookie campaign; however, he is running six times per game this season, compared to 4.8 last year. Russell Wilson had 44 yards on eight carries in the opener against Washington, and last week Justin Herbert ran for 60 yards on four attempts.

Penix gets a bit of a break against Buffalo, as the Bills is missing a key defender at each level with defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (knee), linebacker matt Milano and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) all out. Of course, the Atlanta attack is focused on the running game, so the path to volume for Penix will be the Bills getting out to an early lead.

1. Daniels: There is a decent chance for early-evening rain, though the weekend weather system moved on from the DC Metro area.
2. Allen: It really is a coinflip between Allen and Daniels, accounting for their salaries.
3. Williams: Showing steady improvement, though some of it was two steps forward, one step back.
4. Penix: Flashes upside, but keep in mind tonight will be only his eighth NFL start.

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Running Back NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Bijan Robinson

Tyler Allgeier sees action between the 20s and closed out the two Atlanta victories, with 16 carries and a touchdown in each. In the two losses, he has only 11 carries for 28 yards and just three total targets on the season. He mostly has contingent value if something were to befall Robinson in-game, which makes him a better option for the single-game contests.

Running Back Positional Preview for Monday Night Football

James Cook III tied for the league lead last year, boasting 16 rushing touchdowns while adding two receiving scores. Heading into this week, he was fourth in the league with five touchdowns, sixth with 107.8 combined yards per game, and unlike last year, he dominated the backfield opportunities, logging a 62% snap share while Ty Johnson (25%) and Ray Davis (13%) were almost afterthoughts.

The only knock is that Cook doesn’t get much volume in the passing game, seeing just 14 targets through five contests, though his five opportunities in the last two games account for all of the running back targets. If the Bills end up in a pass-heavy situation, Johnson could see more run, but he has just five targets this season and is really only viable for the single-slate contests.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt may be the last man standing in the Washington backfield. Brian Robinson Jr. was traded to San Francisco late in the preseason, and Austin Ekeler (Achilles) is out for the year. Chris Rodriguez Jr. did not practice at all, and he is on the wrong side of questionable with a calf issue. Jeremy McNichols would be the RB2, in addition to his passing-down role, though he and Croskey-Merritt each had two targets in the last two games. The main knock against Croskey-Merritt this offseason is that he never held much of a receiving role during his extensive college career.

D’Andre Swift dominates the backfield with a 67% snap share, while rookie Kyle Monangai is the only other running back to see action, playing on 28% of the snaps. Swift is fourth on the team with 18 targets, and while his 187 rushing yards are not particularly impressive, he does have two touchdowns. Only three running backs had at least 70 combined yards against the Commanders this season.

This position is pretty much consolidated with a core four, though there are still strategy nuances to consider in the large-field tournaments. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic MNF Live Before Lock Show at 6:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

1. Robinson: Best combined role.
2. Croskey-Merritt: The Bill is due!
3. Cook: 16 or more offensive opportunities in every game.
4. Swift: Nobody is waiting in the wings.
5. Allgeier: Does have a defined role.
6. Rodriguez and McNichols: If Rodriguez is out, McNichols moves ahead of Allgeier and becomes a terrific salary saver on DraftKings ($4,000).
7. Monangai: Meh.
8. Johnson: He will have games that work out in his favor, though they will be hard to pinpoint prior to kickoff.
9. Davis and Nathan Carter: Single-game contest dart throws.

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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Drake London

For Monday’s action, volume will be just fine, and London is one of the best floor plays on the slate. Casey Washington is the direct replacement for Mooney, having logged a team- and season-high 72 (95%) snaps in the opener and then stepping between the lines for 34 (52%) of the plays last week after Mooney went down halfway through the game. Washington did not play in Weeks 2 and 3, though he had six and three targets in the other pair of performances.

He is a terrific salary saver for the single-game contests, and he is a decent punt as well on the two-game slate with a $3,000 salary on DraftKings and a $4,200 cap hit on FanDuel. Ray-Ray McCloud III is just $400 and $500 more on those sites, and he has a similar median fantasy point projection.

Wide Receiver Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Samuel is a game-time decision with a heel injury and even if he does play, he is not going to be at full health. He should still have ample opportunities go his way when he is on the field and he scored in each of the last two games without McLaurin. If he were coming into this game without any injury concerns, he would be the easy choice for the cover photo and the best option in the player pool since he probably would have a path to half a dozen touches out of the backfield. He still may tonight, though he is more likely to be leveraged as a receiver in the red zone.

Rookie Jaylin Lane had at least two targets in every game and has 13 on the season. He and Luke McCaffrey each had three and two targets in the two games without McLaurin. Chris Moore also lurked with three and one opportunities in these games, though he is an afterthought for DFS purposes, as is Tay Martin, who had one target in each game.

Former University of Washington stalwart Rome Odunze leads Chicago with 35 targets, seeing seven or more in each of the first four weeks. Olamide Zaccheaus is second with 22, and DJ Moore rounds things out with 21. Rookie Luther Burden III has eight looks this season, though coming out of the bye week, he could be ready for more of a role, likely at the expense of Zaccheaus. Washington is in the top third of the league, employing man coverage against the pass, which should benefit Williams and Odunze.

Buffalo is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma when it comes to figuring out the pass-catching corps. Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir lead the team with 29 targets, followed by tight end Dalton Kincaid (24) and wideout Joshua Palmer (18). Kincaid is questionable with an oblique and veteran Curtis Samuel is dealing with neck and rib injuries.

Kincaid being out would benefit the three wideouts, who would be the most likely to divvy up his targets. If Samuel is out, it does not do much other than bring Elijah Moore back from inactive status.

1. London: Enjoy the volume and hope he finds the end zone.
2. Odunze: Gets the second slot comfortably.
3. Samuel: Heel is a concern, though if he plays he should be in the mix for high value opportunities.
4. Shakir and Coleman: Close your eyes and pick one.
5. DJ Moore: Why is it receivers who are the most petulant players.
6. Zaccheaus: Played for Washington last year, not that it matters.
7. McCloud and Washington: McCloud also shares punt return duties with Jamal Agnew, as well as kickoffs with Agnew and Natron Brooks.
8. McCaffrey and Lane: McCaffrey is the lead kickoff returner, with Samuel and Lane already scored on a punt return.

Tight End NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Kyle Pitts Sr.

Zach Ertz has not been as prolific as he was last year, though with all the injured skill position players, he should have a more prominent role tonight. He gets a bump if Samuels is out. In 2024 he was second on the team with 91 targets while leading the pass catchers with 24 red zone opportunities. This year he has three red zone looks to the five of Samuel.

Cole Kmet had nine targets in the last game, including two in the red zone. That was fluky as he had just seven looks in the three preceding games and rookie Colston Loveland was out with a hip issue. Loveland did get in a full practice on Saturday, though he still has the questionable tag. Stephon Carlson is likely to be inactive if Loveland is available, while Durham Smythe will slide back into irrelevance.

Dawson Knox is not directly competing with Kincaid since it is the formation that tends to determine which player is on the field. Still his absence would benefit Knox somewhat, along with rookie Jackson Hawes. Knox has 10 targets on the season, while Hawes has four and the trio has snap shares of 53% for Knox, 49% for Kincaid and a steady 37% for the rookie.

1. Pitts: Projecting as the most popular option, with around one-third tournament representation on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
2. Ertz: Takes into account Kincaid and Samuel’s injuries.
3. Kincaid: Still risky with the oblique issue.
4. Kmet and Loveland: Double Meh, though in play. Kmet would be a solid option if Loveland were to be ruled out.
5. Knox: Jumps the Bears if Kincaid is out.
6. Hawes: This would be his ranking if Kincaid is out.