Jets-Dolphins + Bengals-Broncos DFS Picks: Monday Night Mayhem Doubleheader (Sept. 29)

Monday Night Football brings the second doubleheader of the season, which also means bigger contests with a two-game featured slate. This creates different, yet plenty of decision-making opportunities across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down Monday Night Football DFS for Week 4 with the Jets-Dolphins and Bengals-Broncos comprising the player pool. Let’s get ready by analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Monday Night Football Week 4 NFL DFS Picks

Unlike in Week 2, there is only a one-hour difference in the start times for tonight’s action. That does not change much in the way of strategy, unless you are someone who really leans into late-swapping if your earlier plays are doing well or poorly. It has made the single-game prize pools a little smaller, particularly for the second game as compared to Week 2, when there was a three-hour difference in kickoffs.

Quarterback NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: Bo Nix

Denver is coming off a pair of tough road losses, with a 29-28 heartbreaker during Week 2 in Indianapolis and a 23-20 loss to the division rival Chargers in L.A. Cincinnati has not faced any tough competition yet, the three opposing signal-callers being Joe Flacco (290/1/2), Trevor Lawrence (271/3/2) and backup Carson Wentz (173/2/0). Nix is comparable to Lawrence, though with a better coach, overall team structure around him and more veterans he can lean on.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Herbert has -114 odds on over 218.5 passing yards, -110 for his over 23.5 rushing yards prop and +100 for over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Quarterback Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Nix is averaging 178.3 passing yards per game, which is 31st in the league among quarterbacks with at least two starts. That is less than Jake Browning (190.5) and Tua Tagovailoa (191.7) but ahead of Justin Fields (122.5), who left his second start with a concussion. Each of the four field generals has had a 20-plus fantasy point game as well as a single-digit effort already this season.

Fields has the rushing upside, and Miami has not put up much resistance against opposing running games, allowing 145.0 yards per tilt, which is the fourth most in the league. That is with a long of just 26 yards, so teams are just steadily moving down the field. Nix is averaging just over 25 rushing yards per game for his career, though it is not his primary source of fantasy points.

1. Nix: Fragile pick for tournaments considering his lofty projected presence.
2. Fields: Recovering from a bruised brain is different than other injuries, though the short term is all the sports world callously cares about.
3. Browning: Showed some pluck when being forced into a starting role back in 2023; has the best supporting cast on the slate.
4. Tagovailoa: Team is averaging a league-low 25:15 time of possession this season.

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Running Back NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: De’Von Achane

Achane is tied for the team lead with 23 targets, converting 18 for 141 yards and two scores. The third-year speedster also has a team-high 30 carries for 147 yards. Between homefield advantage and a New York defense that has not been quite as stout as usual, Achane should be a core building block in all formats tonight.

Running Back Positional Preview for Monday Night Football

J.K. Dobbins has had a nice start to the season, scoring a rushing touchdown in each game while averaging 13.1 carries and two targets. Rookie R.J. Harvey has 13 carries for 80 yards, with six targets resulting in five receptions for 29 yards.

Harvey has been on the field around half as much as Dobbins, though hopefully the Tyler Badie experience is winding down; he saw just two snaps last week after 14 and 13 in the first two games. Jordan Mason (16/116/2) and Travis Etienne Jr. (89 combined yards and a touchdown), each had successful outings against the Bungles the last two weeks.

The New York backfield has been more muddled than expected, with Breece Hall on the field for only 58% of the action, Braelon Allen at 29% and Isaiah Davis (15%) conspiring with Fields to limit the overall opportunities for Hall. Head coach Aaron Glenn is happy to have the team running the ball, which keeps the clock moving and the Jets at only 57.3 offensive plays per game, which is the seventh fewest on the season.

Half of Hall’s 13 targets have been from backup Tyrod Taylor, which is disappointing since Hall is a solid pass catcher. He is still second on the team, but that just underscores how little the team is looking to pass in the early portion of the season.

Chase Brown has a tough row to hoe tonight against the Broncos, with Denver allowing one rushing touchdown to opposing running backs through three games. Do not worry about the dramatic dip in playing time last week; rookie Tahj Brooks handled the late-game run in the 48-10 loss to Minnesota. If the game is reasonably close, Brown should be the main back, giving way to Samaje Perine in some passing situations.

This position is pretty much consolidated with a core four, though there are still strategy nuances to consider in the large-field tournaments. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic MNF Live Before Lock Show at 6 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

1. Achane: Trending towards fewer carries, though heavily involved in the passing game; projecting to be on 75% or more of all tournament lineups.
2. Brown: Slightly better median fantasy point projection than Dobbins, though with a higher cap hit.
3. Dobbins: Strong fantasy point-per-dollar ratio on DraftKings and behind only Achane on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring format.
4. Hall: It would not be a surprise if he were the top scorer at this position, which is likely to be decided by touchdowns.
5. Harvey: Needs fourth quarter mop-up duty or something to befall Dobbins in-game to reach his upside outcomes.
6. Ollie Gordon II: Nine carries on just 15 plays last week, including three in the red zone. The rookie has 30 pounds on Achane and may get more between-the-tackles work on low-leverage plays as the season unfolds.
7. Allen: Similar to Harvey and Gordon, he is well down the pecking order, though with contingent upside.
8. Perine: Better on DraftKings with full-PPR, little touchdown equity.

Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources and get the most out of your NFL DFS picks!

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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: Ja’Marr Chase

It will be interesting to see how coach Zac Taylor handles the passing game tonight. He could have Chase work out of the slot, though that still does not guarantee he would avoid Surtain, or that could be a sacrificial strategy with “safer” volume going to Tee Higgins. However this pans out, it should be an epic battle between the Defensive Player of the Year and Chase, who won the receiving triple crown last season.

Wide Receiver Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Garrett Wilson has close to a 40% target share for New York, and his 30 opportunities are more than the next three players combined. Heading into Week 4, Wilson was sixth overall in targets per game, and he will likely see Jack Jones in coverage, who is merely mediocre on his best days. Miami should also be able to roll coverage towards Wilson in obvious passing situations, with New York lacking a suitable second option. Ideally, Fields will continue to push his first-read efforts towards his best playmaker.

Journeyman Tyler Johnson and rookie speedster Arian Smith filled in for Josh Reynolds, who was out the last two weeks with a hamstring injury. Allen Lazard is still around, though he is behind this pedestrian trio.

Tyreek Hill had 109 yards in Week 2 and his first touchdown of the season in Week 3, against Buffalo. He leads the Dolphins with 23 targets, though Jaylen Waddle is not too far behind with 17 looks. Waddle reached pay dirt in each of the last two tilts, and we know that Tagovailoa is comfortable going to this duo. In an interesting twist, Malik Washington has a dozen targets, and the second-year wideout also has six rushing attempts. Considering his low salary on DraftKings ($3,500), he is the ideal discount dandy.

On FanDuel, Troy Franklin is only $500 more than Washington, making him the definitive play on the blue site. For the season, Franklin has 19 targets, which are only two behind Cortland Sutton. Marvin Mims Jr. popped up on the injury report Saturday with a hip issue, so his availability is questionable. If he is out, that opens up around 20 snaps that will likely go to rookie Pat Bryant. Veteran Trent Sherfield Sr. has been getting similar run to Mims, though he has had only two targets on the season.

1. Chase: Your cash game (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) option, though he is projecting to have Achane levels of popularity, with his counterparts 20% to 30% less.
2. Wilson: He will be the focus of the Miami defense, but is that really a detriment?
3. Sutton: The best all-around situation, quarterback, matchup, etc.
4. Hill: Perhaps this is a resurgent season for the Cheetah.
5. Franklin: Excellent option on FanDuel for salary relief.
6. Washington: Gets the nod on DraftKings over Franklin.
7. Waddle: Ideally his quarterback stays upright.
8. Higgins: If Burrow were playing, he would move ahead of Hill.

Tight End NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 4: Mason Taylor

Clearly, the Bengals are in flux with Burrow out, though Fant is second on the team with 14 targets, despite playing eight fewer snaps than Gesicki, who has 10 targets. Drew Sample has garnered the most playing time for the Bengals, and he is now blocking for his fellow University of Washington Husky in Browning. Gesicki will benefit the most from Fant’s absence, leaving Sample as a lottery ticket option for the single-game contests and out of the player pool for anyone crafting fewer than 50 lineups on the two-game slate.

Rookie Mason Taylor looks capable, though six of his nine targets on the season came last week with Taylor under center. The playing time will be around a 75% snap share, and given the lack of other capable pass catchers on his team, he has enough talent to offset the thin overall volume coming from Fields. Expect him to be more of a factor as the season unfolds; for now he is fine as a discounted differentiation option.

Evan Engram was out last week with a concussion, though he is behind Adam Trautman for playing time. That is likely because the Broncos need Trautman’s blocking, but why allocate salary cap to Engram if he is going to be on the field for less than half of the offensive action?

Darren Waller will be making his Miami debut tonight, though he will be playing limited snaps. That is fine since he will probably be on the field for clear passing situations. The now 33-year-old was last relevant in 2020 during his lone Pro Bowl campaign, and in his one season with the New York Giants, he was replacement level in a dozen games.

1. Gesicki: Feels icky.
2. Taylor: Rolling the dice.
3. Engram: Meh.
4. Waller: Double Meh.
5. Trautman: His median fantasy point projection is a tick higher than Waller’s.