March Madness DFS Advice: NIT Championship (March 30)

The 2022-23 college basketball season continues with a showdown slate on Thursday, March 30 for the NIT Championship game. This column will dive into each team and highlight the top March Madness DFS picks and value plays to target with the help of Stokastic’s CBB DFS projections.

March Madness DFS Picks | NIT

North Texas vs. UAB | March Madness DFS

A C-USA matchup will conclude this year’s NIT. The North Texas Mean Green take on the UAB Blazers as a 1.5-point underdog in a game with a 127.5-point total. To get to this point, North Texas defeated Alcorn State, Sam Houston State, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin. On the other side, UAB knocked off Southern Miss Morehead State, Vanderbilt and Utah Valley. With all of that said, let’s dive into the game.

Taylor Perry ($10,000) leads North Texas in usage and paces the slate in terms of pricing. Perry will play almost every minute. Over the last three games, Perry accounts for a 25.9% shot rate, 18.7% rebound rate and 24.2% assist rate. He immediately stands out as one of the safest plays on the slate.

On top of Perry, Kai Huntsberry ($7,200) also plays almost every minute at a much cheaper price tag. Huntsberry accounts for a 24.1% shot rate, 14.3% rebound rate and 39.4% assist rate over the last three games, providing a cheaper access point to the Mean Green. He is a viable choice at captain.

Interestingly, Aaron Scott ($8,000) comes in with a higher price tag than Huntsberry. Scott hasn’t seen the same consistency regarding workload. He logged 29, 39 and 25 minutes over the last three games. Some of that comes as a result of foul trouble. However, his minutes remain more volatile than Perry’s or Huntsberry’s. He also accounts for a minuscule 7.9% usage rate, which ranks last among the North Texas starters.

From there, Rubin Jones ($6,000) has played 32, 37 and 32 minutes over the last three games. While his usage trails the studs, he still accounts for a 15.4% shot rate, 12.1% rebound rate and 15.2% assist rate over the last three games. His consistent usage makes him a viable play at this price.

Finally, Moulaye Sissoko ($4,800) rounds out the starting five with Abou Ousmane out. Sissoko has now logged 28 and 34 minutes in back-to-back games. He only has an 8.6% shot rate in this span, but his 24.2% rebound rate gives him an outside chance at a double-double. Sissoko remains too cheap following the role shift.

For those playing in large field GPPs, Jayden Martinez ($4,000) would be the next forward onto the court if one of the starters struggles with fouls. He logged 15, 11 and 23 minutes over the last three games.

Tyree Eady ($2,800) and Matthew Stone ($1.200) are the rotational guards. Stone logged 13, 14 and 13 minutes over the last three games. In that same span, Eady notched 2, 6 and 10. Based on minutes alone, Stone looks like the superior price-adjusted option for those searching for pure punts on this slate.

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Moving to the UAB side, the Blazers are also led by an alpha scorer in Jordan Walker ($9,600). Like UNT’s Perry, Walker will play nearly every minute in competitive games. This has led him to play 41, 38 and 27 minutes over the last three. In that span, Walker posted an elite 27.3% shot rate and 39.5% assist rate. Perry possesses more double-double upside and has a higher ceiling.

From there, UAB’s usage has been tricky to decipher. Eric Gaines ($7,400) technically has the second-highest usage on the team. However, he comes off the bench and has logged 29, 27 and 25 minutes over the last three games. Gaines has also seen his usage drop down the stretch this year.

Trey Jemison ($8,400) played 26, 31 and 30 minutes over the last three games. Foul trouble limited him in UAB’s most recent contest. While his minutes have been decent, Jemison remains rebound dependent. He only accounts for a 9.6% shot rate this year but has been bailed out by his 20.3% rebound rate.

K.J. Buffen ($7,600) has also been playing plenty of minutes — at least before he fouled out after just 22 in the NIT semifinal. Buffen accounts for consistent usage across the statistical categories, including a 12.8% shot rate, 16.5% rebound rate and 11% assist rate on the year. Buffen makes some sense as a buy-low candidate if he can stay out of foul trouble.

Playing alongside Jemison in the frontcourt, Ty Brewer ($5,600) has logged 41, 21 and 32 minutes over the last three games. Part of the minute spike had to do with foul trouble for Jemison and Buffen. However, Brewer should still play between 25-30 minutes at a cheap price. Over the last three games, he accounts for 18.7% of the shots and 20.3% of the rebounds, which should make him somewhat popular here.

The final starter remains Tavin Lovan ($4,400). Lovan has only played 23, 20 and 11 minutes over the last three games. He mainly facilitates the offense with a 15.8% assist rate and little else. UAB uses a somewhat deep bench behind him.

Let’s dive into UAB’s bench. Javian Davis ($2,200) sometimes picks up a few extra minutes when the forwards foul. He has played 19, 9 and 10 over the last three games. Tony Toney ($1,600) plays a similar role in the backcourt. He played 18, 10 and 18 minutes over the last three. Ledarrius Brewer ($3,400) and Efrem Johnson ($1,000) continue to see their minutes cut in more competitive games. Johnson didn’t even see the floor for UAB last time out. Brewer has only played 6, 5 and 11 minutes over the last three games.

Matt Gajewski
Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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