Monday Night Football features the plucky Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) hosting the erstwhile dynastic Kansas City Chiefs (2-2). In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Chiefs-Jaguars Week 5 Monday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla.
NFL Monday Night Football Week 5 DFS Picks: Chiefs-Jaguars
Tonight should be spicy, as Kansas City course corrected with two wins after dropping the first two games on the season. Based on Thursday Night Football’s improbable outcome of the 49ers beating the Rams, the Jaguars’ Week 4 victory in San Francisco, where they held off the 49ers 26-21, is giving Jacksonville legitimacy.
NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5: Patrick Mahomes II
Patrick Mahomes II
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
FanDuel: $13,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.68
FanDuel: 20.51
Patrick Mahomes II is averaging a career-low 234.8 passing yards per game, well below his lofty highs of 316.0 yards in 2020 and 308.8 in 2022. After Sunday’s action, he ranks 14th among quarterbacks who have made at least three starts.
Losing Xavier Worthy (shoulder/ankle) in the opener has not helped, plus there is still one more week left on Rashee Rice’s suspension. Worthy was a late addition to the injury report, listed as questionable after his injured ankle exhibited swelling following the plane ride to Jacksonville.
Assuming Worthy plays, he will still have a brace for his shoulder, which did hinder him on longer routes and when trying to extend for catches. He led the team with eight targets, five receptions and 83 yards. He also added 38 yards on two rushing attempts. Fingers crossed he is a go tonight.
Mahomes continues to make do with a group of aging and declining pass-catchers, though Kansas City leans into the passing game. The future Hall of Famer is averaging 35.5 attempts per game, which is the seventh most in the league. After tossing one touchdown in each of the first three games, Mahomes popped off for four last week in a 37-20 victory over a fading Baltimore Ravens squad.
Last week a banged-up Brock Purdy put up 309 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville, and in Week 2, Jake Browning came in for the injured Joe Burrow and had 241 yards with two scores, albeit with three interceptions.
There should be fantasy goodness available for Mahomes, particularly if Worthy is suiting up. One other key fantasy note, Mahomes is running more this season, simply because the team is desperate for a spark. He already has 130 yards and two scores on 22 carries, and his 32.5 yards per game are well above his 20.5 career average.
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Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview
Running Back | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Through the first three games of the season, Isiah Pacheco played around 55% of the snaps, Kareem Hunt 40%, and rookie Brashard Smith worked in on 10%. Smith saw fourth quarter run last week closing out the victory, so it is hard to put much weight on his 26% snap share. Barring injury to one of the veterans, Smith probably will work in gradually, getting up to a 30% share by Halloween.
Pacheco and Hunt have been less than inspiring, seeing nearly equal opportunities in the running and passing game. Hunt has 36 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown, with six targets for five receptions and 36 yards. Pacheco has 32 carries for 126 yards, plus nine targets for six receptions, 26 yards and a touchdown. This means each player is averaging right around 6.6 fantasy points per game in full-PPR scoring formats. YIKES!
Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections give Pacheco a slight edge at 8.16 carries for 32.76 yards, while Hunt is right behind with 7.91 attempts for 31.74 yards. Heck, Mahomes is at 5.12 carries for 27.98 yards, for additional perspective. Smith is in line for 3.06 carries and 12.29 yards, though he has the speed to easily crush his median projection.
The veterans project for just over two targets each, while Smith is in the mix for 1.3 looks. Factoring in salaries, it is pretty much a pick’em on DraftKings, though on FanDuel Hunt ($5,200) has the edge over Pacheco ($8,400) and Smith ($3,000).
Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Last Sunday, with Worthy returning to action, it was Tyquan Thornton who saw a playing time hit and not JuJu Smith-Schuster. For the season, Smith-Schuster has been between the lines for nearly 75% of the action, and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (71%) is right behind. Rookie Jalen Royals made his debut after dealing with knee tendinitis, logging 14 snaps.
Worthy saw action on 59% of the offensive plays, which should trend up as his health improves. Kansas City likes Smith-Schuster as a blocker, though depending on need, it could be Thornton who presses for more playing time as a downfield threat. Brown leads the team with 32 targets, but that was buoyed by a Week 1 outlier of 16 looks when Worthy was injured early in the game.
Thornton had a high of nine targets in Week 3, sliding to just two last Sunday. Smith-Schuster keeps chugging along with a handful of looks each game, though his 18 targets for 14 catches, 151 yards and a score are pretty pedestrian. If Worthy is active, it is hard to be excited about any of the other receivers with Mahomes not playing favorites.
Tight End | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Travis Kelce still has the most consistent role in the passing game, though his days as a DFS difference maker are going to be entirely predicated on touchdowns going forward. In his last 41 regular season games, Kelce had only nine touchdowns. Noah Gray has 13 targets this year, which are less than exciting since he has six catches for 22 yards. He is an above-average pass catcher, but the team relied on him as a blocker for the last season-plus, attempting to help out a beleaguered offensive line.
Kicker | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Harrison Butker already missed two extra points and three field goals, albeit two were from 50-plus yards. The veteran of nine NFL campaigns is still a strong option, even with 10 to 15 mph winds in Jacksonville and a slight chance of rain.
Defense | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Kansas City averages 2.5 sacks and one takeaway per tilt. The Jaguars have four interceptions but a league-low three sacks this season.
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NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $11,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.74
FanDuel: 15.59
Trevor Lawrence has just five passing touchdowns, though his 2.4% sack rate is the best in the league. The volume is there with 36 attempts per game, but both he and his receivers have struggled to connect. Overall the Jaguars have the 20th-ranked passing DVOA, while the Kansas City defense is seventh.
In his nine mostly healthy games last year, Lawrence averaged just under five targets to running backs, and that has fallen to just over four this season. New head coach Liam Coen is likely to reverse this trend, though it is a little surprising it did not already transpire. The team is 3-1 almost in spite of the offense. Across his last 14 starts, Lawrence barely accounted for 10 rushing yards per game, which is half of what he had in his first three years.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Positional Preview
Running Back | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Shout out to Travis Etienne Jr., who is leading the league with 98.5 rushing yards per game. He has only three plays of 20-plus yards, so he is doing this efficiently with 6.1 yards per carry. Even taking out his longest run of 71 yards, he still has just over 5 yards per carry. Jacksonville has the second-best rushing DVOA, while the Chiefs rank 24th on defense and 31st for EPA per Rush.
Unfortunately, Etienne has only 10 targets this season, while rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. have been involved in the passing game. Tuten is more of a change-of-pace option who flashes electric upside. However, Allen appears to have the edge over his counterparts as the preferred pass protector, though he has only six offensive opportunities.
When Jacksonville traded Tank Bigsby to Philadelphia after the first game, the hope was that Tuten would see more of a role, but that has not happened, as he and Allen are each on the field for around 15 snaps per game. There are still 13 games left in the season, so things could easily change, though at this time we are looking at a shared backfield that is game-flow dependent.
Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
It is hard to pick which Jacksonville receiver is having the most disappointing fantasy season, but second-year man Brian Thomas Jr. narrowly edges out two-way rookie phenom Travis Hunter. Injuries to the defensive backfield have Hunter focusing more on that side of the ball.
Thomas simply has to turn things around, and he at least was active with at least six targets in every game. Dyami Brown was out last week with a shoulder injury, and he is questionable for tonight. If he plays, that means Hunter can continue to see more defensive action, and it also means Parker Washington is likely to be relegated to a 30% snap share.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Thomas is -110 to exceed 57.5 receiving yards and -103 to collect at least 4.5 receptions, and he is +180 to score a touchdown. If Brown is out, Washington is a discount dandy since he will have the WR2 role and the defensive attention will remain on Thomas and the running game.
Tight End | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Brenton Strange is second on the team with 23 targets, and while he is far from a dynamic playmaker, he has a nice rapport with Lawrence over the last season and change. While he has only two touchdowns in his last 14 starts, his 45.5 receiving yards per game are nearly double his production from last year. He has a favorable salary and would easily return a profit if he manages to find the end zone tonight.
Johnny Mundt is mostly a blocker with just three targets this season on 95 snaps. Hunter Long is a dart throw who saw three targets each of the last two weeks, and his 22 Week 4 snaps represent half of his playing time for the season. Is this a trend, or something sticky? Well, we will have to wait and see.
Kicker | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Cam Little had a 70-yard field goal this preseason, which is the longest successful attempt in football history. Because it was not a regular season game, it did not make the official NFL record book, but is, nonetheless, impressive. After winning the starting job in training camp last year, Little made all 29 of his PATs, continuing his perfect streak from college where he had a 100% success rate on 129 attempts over three seasons. He also converted 36 of 40 (90%) NFL field goal attempts, which is stellar. Sadly, the DFS sites do not award more than 5 fantasy points for kicks of 50-plus yards.
Defense | Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 5
Jacksonville has just seven sacks through four games, which mirrors the seven Kansas City ceded. On the turnover front, the Jaguars have a league-high 13 takeaways, while the Chiefs have just one lonely interception as the only blemish.
NFL DFS Picks for Chiefs-Jaguars NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 5: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Jaguars
- Patrick Mahomes II: Mahomies Unite!
- Trevor Lawrence: Fourth-highest salary, second-best median fantasy point projection.
- Travis Etienne Jr.: Only knock is limited looks in the passing game.
- Xavier Worthy: If he hadn’t been a late add to the injury report, he would be second on this list. Hopefully, that designation was out of an abundance of caution.
- Hollywood Brown: Maintains this positioning even if Worthy is out.
- Cam Little: So many shared roles on both offenses make Little an appealing foundational building block.
- Brian Thomas Jr.: Needs to recapture his rookie season magic. The hope is that was not all a result of Mac Jones being the late-season starter after Lawrence’s injury.
- Travis Kelce: Alleged touchdown equity still keeps him in the mix with this unique player pool.
- Harrison Butker: Projectable value.
- Travis Hunter: Gets the last spot in the top 10 because of potential.
Secondary Options
- Brenton Strange: Has a solid role.
- Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith: Salaries keep them bunched together on DraftKings; Hunt has the FanDuel edge. Smith is co-kickoff returner with Remigio.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton: If Worthy is out, Thornton jumps up with Brown and Smith-Schuster moves ahead of Hunter.
- Jacksonville DST: Love to see all those takeaways, but Mahomes is good.
- Parker Washington and Dyami Brown: If Brown is out, Washington moves to the top of this section. Washington is the main punt returner, sometimes works in on kickoffs with the rookie running backs.
Lottery Tickets
- Bhayshul Tuten: Hard to supplant Etienne with his current form; does have lead kickoff return role.
- Kansas City DST: Getting by on reputation; showing some cracks. Can Lawrence and Coen find any exploits?
- Noah Gray and Hunter Long: TE2s have magical powers on primetime.
- LeQuint Allen Jr. and Johnny Mundt: Will at least be on the field. Allen has partial role as the kickoff returner with Tuten.
- Tim Patrick, Jalen Royals, Robert Tonyan and Nikko Remigio: Remigio and Royals have backed up Smith as the lead kickoff returners; Remigio also returns punts.
