Against all odds, the Panthers are tied with the Buccaneers for the lead in the NFC South. Meanwhile, the 49ers sit third in division, though they hold final Wild Card spot if the season ended today. San Francisco is a 7.5-point home favorites in a game with a 49.5-point game total. This means there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Panthers-49ers Week 12 MNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action.
NFL Monday Night Football Week 12 DFS Picks: Panthers-49ers
NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 12: Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $11,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.89
FanDuel: 17.39
Rico Dowdle dropped the hammer in Weeks 5 and 6 when Chuba Hubbard was sidelined with an injury, getting 53 carries for 389 yards and nine targets for seven catches and another 84 yards. Surprisingly, he had just two touchdowns in these games, running one in against Miami and then catching one against his former Dallas teammates.
When Hubbard returned, it was a shared backfield for two games, as Dowdle had 25 totes for 183 yards, while Hubbard had 26 for 65 and a touchdown. Dowdle was the starter in each of the last trio of tilts, getting 63 carries for 228 yards and three touchdowns against 12 carries for 53 yards by Hubbard. In these three games, Dowdle also had 13 targets to the five for Hubbard on a 75% to 20% snap-share split, with rookie Trevor Etienne stepping between the lines for a couple of offensive plays each game.
Dowdle has the second-highest salary on DraftKings while ranking third on FanDuel, and it is appropriate. Eight different running backs rushed for at least 50 yards versus San Francisco in 11 games, with 11 backs posting 50-plus combined yards. Across the last month, San Francisco was in the bottom 10 against opposing ball carriers from a fantasy perspective.
Carolina Panthers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Bryce Young is coming off a career performance, recording 448 yards and three touchdowns in Atlanta, leading the Panthers to a 30-27 overtime victory. Interestingly, he topped 200 passing yards only twice this season, falling a tick shy during Dowdle’s two-game breakout, though the first overall selection of the 2023 NFL Draft lobbed five touchdowns passes in those performances.
Young is managing a sprained ankle suffered in Week 7, which kept him out of Week 8, though he does not have any injury designation at this time and was a full practice participant for the week. San Francisco is incredibly thin on defense, missing linemen Nick Bosa, Tatum Bethune, Mykel Williams, Yetur Gross-Matos and Robert Beal Jr., linebackers Fred Warner and Tatum Bethune, and defensive backs Tre Tomlinson and Jakob Robinson.
in six of the last seven games, the 49ers allowed opposing signal-callers to throw for multiple touchdowns, with three field generals amassing 318 or more passing yards. Carolina tends to play slow and methodical football, though if the Panthers are forced into passing, the Niners may not be able to contain them.
Young rushed for only one touchdown this season, but he had at least 19 yards on the ground in four of his starts. Last year he did have six rushing scores while averaging 17.8 yards per game on 3.1 carries. Sacks are an issue for Young and the Panthers, but the 49ers just allowed NFL nomad Jacoby Brissett to attempt 57 passes for an NFL record 47 completions, without registering a single takedown against him.
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Wide Receiver | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Rookie Tetairoa McMillan has had to shoulder a heavy workload, earning 89 targets for 54 receptions, 748 yards and four touchdowns. The rest of the team combined for 262 targets, 168 receptions, with 1,507 yards and 11 touchdowns. McMillan is the odds-on favorite for NFL Rookie of the Year, and there is not much else to add other than get him on some lineups tonight!
Jalen Coker missed the first six games of the season, but the second-year wideout looks to be back to full health. Though he has four targets in each of the last two games, he is very much in play on DraftKings ($4,000, 29.1%); however, he is not quite as appealing on FanDuel ($6,400, 17.3%). Hunter Renfrow had two touchdowns on 26 targets in the six games without Coker, but he is out of the picture at this time.
Xavier Legette is second on the team with three touchdowns, though he steadily lost playing time with the return of Coker. Legette should still be on the field for at least half of the offensive action. That said, he is not much of a target earner and is rarely the primary read for Young.
Brycen Tremayne and Jimmy Horn Jr. round out the wide receivers, but Tremayne saw just three of his 15 targets in the five games alongside Coker, while Horn had seven of his ten under these circumstances. However, he did not have any opportunities in the last two games.
Tight End | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Ja’Tavion Sanders missed a couple of games earlier this season, but he had 15 targets in his last five, including nine over the last two weeks. He is a fine value option on both DraftKings ($2,800, 26.3%) and FanDuel ($5,000, 20.1%). Tommy Tremble will be on the field for around 60% of the offensive action, though 14 of his 25 targets occurred in the three games where Sanders was injured. He is still live for one or two looks, with TE3 Mitchell Evans having a 90% likelihood of getting at least one pass in his direction, as he is typically on the field for one-third of the offensive action.
Kicker | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Rookie Ryan Fitzgerald was a UDFA out of Florida State, winning the kicking job from Matthew Wright this preseason. He has been adequate with an 85% conversion rate on his 20 field goal attempts, including connecting on 2 of 3 (67%) from 50-plus yards.
Defense | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Carolina had more than two sacks in a game twice this season, with a scant five across the last four tilts. In this stretch, the team had one interception and four fumble recoveries. Brock Purdy has been a little shaky this season with four interceptions across his 99 pass attempts, though that can be chalked up to injuries and being rusty. He has an above-average 2.7% interception rate for his career, but it is hard to see the Panthers making much of that outside of Lady Luck giving them a gift.
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NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 12: Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel: $12,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 21.45
FanDuel: 16.81
Christian McCaffrey has not shown much burst in the running game, with one carry of 20-plus yards and a career low 3.7 yards per carry. However, he has six rushing touchdowns and is essentially a top-10 wide receiver if only judged by his contributions in the passing game.
The future Hall of Famer is ninth this season with 96 targets, ranking sixth with 74 receptions and 15th with 66.7 yards per game. He also has five touchdown receptions, with 11 combined scores ranking fourth overall. Carolina allowed 83 or more rushing yards to lead ball-carriers over the last four games, including Bijan Robinson (23/104/2) last week and James Cook III (19/219/2) in Week 8.
Now that most of the San Francisco skill position players are available, the team somewhat lightened the load for McCaffrey since it needs him healthy to continue this Cinderella run towards the playoffs. Brian Robinson Jr. had eight carries in each of the last two games, along with one target in both battles. The former Washington running back is a strong value play on DraftKings ($3,400, 24.1%), though on FanDuel ($8,100, 11.3%) he is going to need mop-up duty, a fortuitous touchdown or something befalling McCaffrey in order to be a DFS difference maker.
Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Robinson for 6.1 carries and 32.7 yards, plus 2.6 targets for 2.2 receptions and 14.4 yards, along with a 90% probability of getting a target from Purdy.
San Francisco 49ers Positional Preview
Quarterback | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Brock Purdy is everyone’s favorite Mr. Irrelevant; though there is no quarterback controversy in San Francisco, the play of Mac Jones this season made the absence of Purdy irrelevant. Purdy looked a little rusty in Arizona last Sunday, but he still had three touchdowns and no interceptions, completing 19 of 26 (73%) of his passes for 200 yards. Considering he played in Week 1, Week 4 and then Sunday, that is not a terrible stat line, and the 49ers had a comfortable 41-22 victory.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, Purdy is -111 for over 254.5 passing yards, -175 for more than 1.5 touchdowns and -115 for over 7.5 rushing yards.
Carolina held Atlanta without a passing touchdown last week, though Tyler Shough got them for two in Week 10 and three other quarterbacks had multi-touchdown games between Week 4 and 6. Purdy is best employed as a flex-play, but there are paths for him to be successful from the multiplier slot while also providing differentiation.
Wide Receiver | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
After a six-game absence, Ricky Pearsall returned to action with a 75% snap share, which likely would have been higher had the game not been a blowout. He did not convert on any of his three targets, though that is not overly concerning for tonight’s game considering Jauan Jennings had six targets and Demarcus Robinson saw two as the only other wideouts getting opportunities.
Pearsall is $600 more than Jennings on DraftKings, with Jennings holding a $600 premium on FanDuel. Each has a very similar fantasy projection, as well as in the sportsbooks, so it will be interesting to see how the field approaches what is essentially a coinflip. If one player ends up with more projected popularity, looking to the other will be a direct pivot away, which is rare in single-game contests.
Robinson was on the field for nearly half of the offensive action, while Kendrick Bourne (24%) had a season low with Jennings and Pearsall both healthy, and Skyy Moore did not step between the lines on offense for the first time all season.
There are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic MNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Tight End | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Across the last four games, George Kittle averaged an 88% snap share with a solid 24 targets, including nine red zone opportunities. His priority is still blocking, though we saw him crush on limited volume many times before. Jake Tonges is back to a TE3 role, backing up Kittle, with Luke Farrell getting on the field around one-third of the time, mostly in a blocking capacity. Since the return of Kittle, the other tight ends each had one target during the last month.
Kicker | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Jerry Glanville really was right: The NFL does equate to “Not For Long,” as Matt Gay found out, having been released by Washington last Sunday, only to find himself with the starting job in San Francisco after Eddy Pinero suffered a strained hamstring. This is Gay’s seventh NFL season, and while he struggled missing seven of his 19 attempts with the Commanders, five of those misses were from 50-plus yards. Gay earned Pro Bowl honors back in 2021 with the Los Angeles Rams, and he is a perfectly acceptable click tonight.
Defense | Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12
Young saw his sack rate drop each of his three seasons from a ridiculous 10.5% as a rookie to 7.0% last year and 5.7% this season. Across the last eight games, San Francisco had just seven sacks, three interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Young has a subpar 2.2% interception rate, still suffering seven pickoffs, despite a low-volume aerial attack.
NFL DFS Picks for Panthers-49ers NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Panthers-49ers
- Christian McCaffrey: Still getting it done for his fantasy backers.
- Tetairoa McMillan: He will have the attention of the defense, but will it matter?
- Brock Purdy: Each week he regains health will help his fantasy production.
- Rico Dowdle: Dang, what a surprise, becoming this year’s “Chuba Hubbard” for season-long drafters.
- Bryce Young: Feels like we are slighting him with this ranking, which are words I did not expect to type this year.
- Jalen Coker: We need salary savers, better on DraftKings with full-PPR.
- Matt Gay: Veteran nod.
- Ryan Fitzgerald: Hopefully, the skies of November do not turn gloomy tonight (real ones will get this reference).
- George Kittle: Soooooo many options tonight!
- Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings: Let personal preference be your guide.
Secondary Options
- Ja’Tavion Sanders: Solid fantasy point-per-dollar ratio.
- Brian Robinson Jr.: More of a contingency play on FanDuel; reasonable cheapy on DraftKings; expect half a dozen combined offensive opportunities.
- Chuba Hubbard: Ibid.
Lottery Tickets
- Xavier Legette: Salary is inflated by his touchdowns.
- San Francisco DST: The once mighty unit is ravaged by injuries.
- Carolina DST: Not dreadful but will need a splash play to have much of an impact tonight.
- Tommy Tremble and Kyle Juszczyk: Blocking is their focus for their respective teams, but each is on the field enough that an offensive opportunity or two is not out of the question.
- Demarcus Robinson: King of the Wind Sprints, though at least he is on the field.
- Brycen Tremayne: Last player worthy of his own line.
- Jake Tonges, Mitchell Evans, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Kendrick Bourne: Each will play, but collectively they project for 5.7 total offensive opportunities.
- Skyy Moore, Isaac Guerendo and Trevor Etienne: Special teamers at this point with everyone healthy; all return kickoffs, with Moore and Etienne being the main punt returners for their respective squads.
- Luke Farrell, Luke Skywalker, Luke Wilson, Luke Bryan and Luke Duke: Yee Haw!
