Last season, each of these teams sat atop their respective conferences with 15-2 regular season records. Kansas City was in five of the last six Super Bowls, which is insane by any metric, winning three Lombardi Trophies. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Lions-Chiefs Week 6 SNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 6 DFS Picks: Lions-Chiefs
The last time these two teams met in an official game was Week 1 in 2023 as the Lions upset the Chiefs in Kansas City 21-20. Most of the key Detroit offensive contributors are still on the team, with a couple of additions. The Chiefs have their future Hall of Famers, though they are older and have a lot more mileage on their bodies.
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6: Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $12,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.68
FanDuel: 20.51
Jahmyr Gibbs looks intriguing tonight as Kansas City allows 64.2 rushing yards to lead running backs, with Saquon Barkley (22/88/1) in Week 2, Cam Skattebo (10/60/1) in Week 3, and Justice Hill (3/76/1) and Derrick Henry (8/42/0) having the bulk of the production.
The Chiefs are 21st, ceding 123.4 rushing yards per matchup, and the 4.8 yards per carry are the seventh most in the league. Detroit averages 134.8 rushing yards per game, just inside the top 10, on a steady 4.4 yards per tote. Gibbs is a tremendous combo back, able to produce in all facets of the game while also being spelled by David Montgomery, who is no slouch himself.
Last year, Gibbs tied Henry and James Cook III with 16 rushing touchdowns, though he had two more receiving scores than this duo, finishing with a lofty 20 combined touchdowns. Across the last four games, the 12th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft had at least 89 combined yards, adding four total rushing scores and another through the air. Monty had three rushing touchdowns and three games of at least 69 combined yards. The other Detroit running backs combined for eight offensive snaps, five carries and 15 yards.
Gibbs has the highest salary on DraftKings, and he ranks second on FanDuel. He and Montgomery may be deployed together as each carries solid touchdown equity for their respective salaries. Thursday night we saw an “overly pricey” Cam Skattebo crush with three touchdowns, and while that is not a common occurrence, those that backed him on DraftKings were thrilled.
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Detroit Lions Positional Preview
Quarterback | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
In Brazil Week 1, Justin Herbert put up 318 yards and three touchdowns against Kansas City. On Monday Night Football last week, Trevor Lawrence had 221 yards and a score with two rushing touchdowns. During the three games between these bookends, opposing quarterbacks had one rushing score (Jalen Hurts) and one aerial touchdown (Lamar Jackson), with a collective average of 115 passing yards and a tick over 23 rushing yards.
Jared Goff is 13th in the league with 237.4 passing yards per game, though he has a whopping 12 passing touchdowns, which have him atop the leaderboard. It is the same result for his 75.2% completion rate, while his 120.7 passer rating is second. Goff had 28, 28, 27 and 23 pass attempts in the last four games, all of which were victories, though he did have 39 in a 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field in Week 1. Last year in the two losses, Goff had 59 attempts against Buffalo (48-42) and 55 against Tampa Bay (20-16). Similarly in 2023, he had 35, 53, 44, 35 and 34 pass attempts in five losing efforts.
Kansas City is a 2.5-point home favorite, and we know the Chiefs will put points on the board. This matchup has all the makings for Goff to see north of 35 pass attempts. Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, we can see that the over on 33.5 pass attempts is currently +114 on DraftKings.
The only knock against Goff for fantasy purposes is that he adds nothing on the ground, averaging 1.9 attempts and 2.8 yards per game in his 56 regular season starts for Detroit. Keep in mind kneeldowns count as rushing attempts. He had only two rushing touchdowns in this timeframe, which makes sense considering his running backs.
Wide Receiver | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a phenomenal receiver, working out of the slot for most of his opportunities. He is an excellent downfield receiver as well, but that is now the domain of Jameson Williams. St. Brown earned First-Team All-Pro status each of the last two seasons, and he received Pro Bowl honors for the last three years. He is 14th with 8.2 targets per game, which is a tremendous 29.3% target share, and his six touchdowns are the most in the NFL.
Williams is 16th this season with 436 air yards on just 21 targets, and it should be no surprise he is second in the league with 20.3 yards per reception while playing on nearly 90% of the snaps. St. Brown has 10 of the 20 red zone opportunities that have gone to the wideouts and tight ends.
Kalif Raymond (neck) was injured while returning a punt in the first quarter against Cincinnati last week. He is listed as questionable, having been a limited practice participant on Thursday and Friday. Rookie Isaac TeSlaa did get a season-high 21 (34%) snaps on Sunday, though he has only five targets on the year with two touchdowns.
If Raymond is out, TeSlaa and fellow rookie Dominic Lovett will be the likely options in three-wide receiver formations.
Tight End | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Sam LaPorta is second on the team with 27 targets, seeing at least four in every game this season. Brock Wright has the other six targets for the position, while Ross Dwelley and Shane Zylstra (currently on the injured reserve) have played on a scant 30 combined snaps.
LaPorta leads the team with 282 (89%) snaps, which is one more than Williams. Wright has been on the field for just over half of the offensive action, and he has two red zone opportunities. He is in play for those crafting north of 25 lineups on DraftKings ($1,600) and FanDuel ($2,000) as a sub-5% differentiation piece.
Kicker | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Second-year kicker Jake Bates led the league in both point-after-touchdown attempts (67) and conversions (64). Though he was nowhere near as prolific with 29 field goal attempts, he had a strong 89.7% conversion rate. He set the UFL record with a 64-yard field goal for the Michigan Panthers, but he missed two of his three kicks from 50-plus yards this season. One was a 67-yard attempt in Baltimore at the end of the first half, and the other was a 55-yard effort at home in Week 2.
Defense | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Detroit has a dozen defenders either out or on the injured reserve, with defensive backs Brian Branch (ankle) and Kerby Joseph (knee) on the wrong side of questionable. Kansas City ceded only seven sacks this year, while the Lions racked up 16, led by the five of Aidan Hutchinson and 3.5 from linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad. The Chiefs have only two turnovers, both interceptions, with the Motor City Kitties third in the league at nine takeaways.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 6: Patrick Mahomes II
Patrick Mahomes II
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $12,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.65
FanDuel: 15.48
Patrick Mahomes II had his first 300-yard passing game of the season in a Monday Night Football loss in Jacksonville. He also had six carries for 60 yards and a score, giving him three games with at least 57 rushing yards.
Things are looking up now that Xavier Worthy (shoulder/ankle) is playing again and Rashee Rice will return from his suspension next week.
Aside from Joe Flacco in Week 4, Detroit allowed multiple passing touchdowns in the other four games. Mahomes is currently -114 to throw for more than 262.5 yards and -120 for more than 25.5 rushing yards. The +325 odds on an anytime touchdown is intriguing for wagering purposes, while his -195 for over 1.5 passing touchdowns is encouraging for DFS gamers. You can more easily view these lines and more on the OddsShopper Live Odds page.
Mahomes needs to be the catalyst this season even more than usual, and his 38.0 rushing yards per game are well above his 20.8 career average. This is intentional and a key part of the Kansas City offense.
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Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview
Running Back | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Isiah Pacheco had a season-high 63% snap share, though Kareem Hunt is still getting nearly half of the backfield opportunities. Pacheco had three targets in each of the last two games, while Hunt had one look in each of the last four. Rookie Brashard Smith had seven targets in the last two tilts, catching six for 59 yards. He had five carries for 13 yards in this timeframe, plus two red zone opportunities. In summary, this is a muddled mess.
Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Pacheco, Hunt and Mahomes to each rush for 35-ish yards, with the three running backs expected to have two targets apiece. Hunt leads the backfield with three rushing touchdowns, while Pacheco has a receiving score.
Considering salaries, the preferred DraftKings ranking would be Pacheco ($4,000), Hunt ($4,600) and Smith ($3,000). On FanDuel, it is Hunt ($5,400) then Pacheco ($7,600), with Smith ($3,000) much closer to Pacheco on the blue site given his significant discount.
Wide Receiver | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Worthy is a priority across the DFS landscape, while the other pass-catchers pale by comparison. Each of them has merit, as well as drawbacks. Tyquan Thornton developed a nice rapport with Mahomes as the downfield option, though volume runs thin for the former New England Patriot. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are no longer difference-makers, but they are on the field more than Thornton and have better target volume.
Let price and personal preference be your guide when choosing which player to click, though keep in mind with Mahomes under center, everyone has touchdown equity since he doesn’t play favorites (at least until Rice returns to consolidate things with Worthy).
Tight End | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Travis Kelce had a “ceiling” game on Monday, turning eight targets into seven receptions, 61 yards and a touchdown. Considering the lofty 52.5-point game total and his hefty salary, he probably needs two touchdowns to make anyone angry that they did not roster him.
Noah Gray is a discount dandy on DraftKings ($1,600), as 12 of his 13 targets came in the last three tilts. His 5.7 aDOT is not particularly enthralling, but he does have two red zone targets in the last four games, while Kelce has four.
Kicker | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Harrison Butker is off to a very slow start this year, making just 10 of 13 field goal attempts, though two of his misses were from 50-plus yards. In the three preceding seasons he missed only four of his 110 point-after-touchdown opportunities, but this year he already missed two on 13 tries. Field goal volume is fickle; however, Butker is trending down since signing his mega contract, and he missed nine of his last 22 field goals of 50 or more yards.
Defense | Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6
Goff averaged 1.8 sacks per game over the last two-plus seasons, with 0.7 interceptions per game in the same timeframe. Kansas City is in the middle of the pack for both categories this season, though the overall defense is a strength. Expect this unit to be motivated after the late-game collapse on Monday Night Football.
NFL DFS Picks for Lions-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 6: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Lions-Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes II: Mahomies Unite!
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: No weakness in his game; projecting for half the multiplier-slot representation of Mahomes and Gibbs.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Barely behind the two above, and it would not be a surprise if he were the key to the slate.
- Xavier Worthy: Starting to regain his form.
- Jared Goff: Lack of rushing production makes him a mediocre Captain/MVP, but he is a phenomenal flex play.
- Jameson Williams: Tremendous upside.
- Jake Bates: Solid salary saver.
- David Montgomery: Unlikely to be as featured as he was last weekend; still a savvy selection.
- Harrison Butker: Luck be a lady tonight!
- Travis Kelce: Worked his way back into the top 10, just barely.
Secondary Options
- Sam LaPorta: Not enough of a discount from Kelce; does provide differentiation with projections having him on around 25% of both DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
- Isaiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith: Each is viable, though preference changes by site. Smith is the main kickoff returner. See details above for specifics.
- Taquan Thornton, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown: Ibid.
Lottery Tickets
- Kansas City DST: Homefield advantage is big at Arrowhead Stadium.
- Noah Gray: Better on DraftKings.
- Isaac TeSlaa and Kalif Raymond: If Raymond is inactive, TeSlaa goes to the top of this section.
- Brock Wright: Will be on the field a lot; opportunities are thin, though not impossible.
- Nikko Remigio: Main punt returner; usually gets a couple offensive snaps each week; has one target and one rushing attempt.
- Jalen Royals: Played 14 snaps in his Week 4 debut; only four for the rookie on Monday. He and Remigio negate each other for “designed” touches.
- Robert Tonyan, Craig Reynolds, Dominic Lovett and Ross Dwelley: Most will be active, though collectively this crew has just under three expected offensive opportunities.
