Sunday Night Football features the undefeated Buffalo Bills hosting the 2-2 New England Patriots. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Patriots-Bills Week 5 Sunday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
NFL Sunday Night Football Week 5 DFS Picks: Patriots-Bills
Tonight should be interesting with the New England offense being so spread out and Buffalo’s passing attack receiving the same assessment. The Bills at least have a concentrated running game, though their quarterback is arguably the most feared rusher.
NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5: Drake Maye
Drake Maye
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $12,600
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.65
FanDuel: 18.48
Sophomore signal-caller Drake Maye has been off to a decent start, leading his team to a 2-2 record while also besting his counterparts across the league with a 74.0% completion rate. He is sixth in the league with 8.0 yards per attempt, ninth with 241.0 passing yards per game and eighth with seven aerial scores.
During the offseason, Maye indicated he planned on running more, and his 24 attempts are nearly half of his 54 last year in 12 starts. He also has already matched his touchdown total with two. The 24.5 rushing yards per game are about half of what he had in games that he started and finished last year, but expect the per-game average to push towards 35-ish yards per game if his six attempts per tilt hold.
The offensive line is not doing Maye any favors, and he is pacing for 55 sacks, which would have him just ahead of C.J. Stroud’s 52 last year, though still well below the 68 of Caleb Williams. Rookie Cam Ward is on pace to threaten the 76 sacks David Carr suffered in his 2002 rookie campaign.
Back to Maye, this will be the first real quarterback that Buffalo has seen since Lamar Jackson in the opener. Across the last three weeks, it was Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa and Spencer Rattler. This is the first time this season that New England will be on the primetime stage, though Maye is usually well composed, so that should not really be a factor. Last year in Buffalo, Maye almost earned the Patriots an upset in a 24-21 Week 16 loss. New England did win in Week 18, though Maye played only one series before giving way to backup Joe Milton, who battled Buffalo backups Mitch Trubisky and Mike White.
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New England Patriots Positional Preview
Running Back | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Rhamondre Stevenson keeps the lead role, despite a pair of Week 3 fumbles. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson has not looked like he should have been the 38th overall selection in the most recent NFL Draft, though the season is still young. The former Ohio State Buckeye does lead the backfield with 13 targets, but six of those were in Week 1. In the last three games, Henderson had seven targets, while Stevenson had nine and Antonio Gibson got just one all the way back in Week 2.
Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Stevenson leading the way with 9.62 carries, Henderson at 7.52 and Gibson at 1.48, with Maye contributing 6.04. On the receiving front, Henderson has a slight edge at 3.33 targets to 3.03 for Stephenson, while Gibson is 50/50 to get one opportunity.
This is definitely a shared backfield, though there are still savvy strategies to craft tonight. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic SNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Wide Receiver | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
The wide receiver room is very crowded with essentially a five-man rotation. Towards the bottom are rookie Kyle Williams and DeMario” “Pop” Douglas, with the former coming off a season-high 29% snap rate and the latter hitting a nadir of 16%.
Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are the two at the top, though Diggs has come along slowly as he recovers from a knee injury that ended last year early. He saw a steady climb in his participation rate from 41% to 52% to 53% and finally 63%. Boutte slipped a little accordingly from a Week 1 high of 82%, though it looks like he will probably settle into a 65% to 70% snap share.
Mack Hollins was on the field for 59% of the total snaps, but he has only a 7.5% target share. Williams has been disappointing to say the least, particularly since he was a third-round selection after five college seasons, including the last two as a starter for Washington State. He should start to gain traction at some point, but for now he is a tough click with only two targets on the year.
Tight End | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Hunter Henry leads the team in targets with 24, which is not particularly surprising. He had a whopping 11 in Week 3 but only two last Sunday during the 42-13 shellacking of Carolina. All was not lost as Henry did convert both for 39 yards and his first touchdown of the season, continuing his great rapport with Maye that began last year.
The offensive line is sketchy enough that the Patriots ran two-tight end sets over 30% of the time, which helped Austin Hooper be on the field for just over 60% of the offensive action each of the last three games. The veteran of 10 NFL campaigns is well removed from his back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons before the pandemic. He can still get it done in short bursts and had a trio of tuddies last season. Jack Westover is likely to step between the lines for a handful of offensive plays, though he has zero targets this year.
Kicker | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Pop Quiz: Name the New England placekicker? Answer: It is Andres Borregales, who was a sixth-round selection from the University of Miami in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Venezuelan was a four-year starter for the Hurricanes, leading the ACC in field goal attempts and makes his junior year, and extra point attempts and makes last season.
Thus far he converted on 4 of 5 (80%) of his field goals and on 10 of 12 (83%) point-after-touchdown attempts. In the last two games, he did attempt a field goal, though he made all eight of his extra points.
Defense | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Buffalo ceded seven sacks this season, which is right around league average, while New England has 10 sacks — solid, though not spectacular. Across the last 21 regular season games, the Bills have just nine turnovers, with one lonely interception last week being this year’s blemish. The Patriots have three interceptions but zero fumble recoveries, and there is no reason to have high expectations for this unit on the road tonight.
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NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5: Josh Allen
Josh Allen
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $14,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 22.95
FanDuel: 22.78
Josh Allen is the reigning NFL MVP, earning the mantle for the first time last year. In 2023, Allen had a whopping 15 rushing touchdowns and 524 yards on 111 carries. Last year he was “more selective,” though he still ran for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns on 102 totes.
This season the goal was to let the running backs do more of the heavy lifting, yet here we are with Allen already running in three scores while being on pace for 130 carries and 675 yards. There will be games where he does not contribute on the ground, but it would appear those will be the outliers.
Allen is also pacing for a better passing season: After leading the league with a 74.8 QBR last year, he has an 81.3 QBR thus far. With more games added to the sample size, colder weather and tougher competition will begin to erode these “on pace” rates, though he is still one of the most dynamic players in the game no matter what caveats or vantage points are assigned.
Continuing last season’s trend, Allen is not playing favorites, with four pass-catchers between 18 and 22 targets. The same four all have between three and five red zone looks and only one 100-yard game, back in the opener against Baltimore in the 41-40 victory. Last year the wideouts combined for just five games of more than 85 yards, and none had any multi-touchdown games. This means that Allen can still put up MONSTER games without bringing anyone along for the ride.
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New England Patriots Positional Preview
Running Back | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
James Cook III tied Derrick Henry with 16 rushing touchdowns last year, and each back also caught two scores. Cook has touchdowns in each game so far. Counting the playoffs, he found the end zone in 18 of his last 22 games, scoring 29 total touchdowns.
Second-year back Ray Davis had one rushing attempt in the last two weeks, and he has only 11 on the season. Third-down back Ty Johnson has eight carries but only one catch on his scant five targets. Davis has one catch, losing a yard on two looks. From an on-field perspective, it has been Cook for nearly 60% of the offensive action, while Johnson is at 27% and Davis just a 14% snap share.
Fullback Reggie Gilliam was on the field for 20% of the snaps, though he did not have any offensive opportunities. He had just one target in the last 36 regular season games and three carries for 7 yards.
Wide Receiver | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Theoretically, Keon Coleman is the WR1 in his sophomore season, getting on the field for 72% of the action this season. He does lead the team in targets, though 11 of his 22 targets were in Week 1 and his 18.5% target share is barely ahead of the scrum. Even his 252 air yards are closely contested by the 189 of Josh Palmer. Khalil Shakir still has a strong presence, and he is just behind Coleman with 20 targets.
But wait — there’s more! Curtis Samuel was finally active last Sunday, which gave Buffalo six wideouts who saw at least 24% of the snaps. Elijah Moore and Tyrell Shavers are the other two who have not yet been named, which is appropriate since this trio has a grand total of 11 combined looks from Allen.
This is such a crowded crew, it is hard to advocate for any one option. Coleman, Shakir and Palmer have the best chance at four-plus targets, though even that nominal bar is going to be tricky to pick who clears it tonight.
Tight End | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Rookie Jackson Hawes was on the field for 53% of the snaps last Sunday, though keep in mind that Buffalo was never really threatened by New Orleans, despite the Saints hanging around within theoretical striking distance in what ended up as a 31-19 Buffalo victory. The fifth-rounder out of Georgia Tech has converted on his lone target in each of the first four games, including a Week 3 touchdown.
Dawson Knox has played 11 more snaps than Dalton Kincaid, though aside from the Week 4 romp, each has been on the field for just over 50% of the offensive sets. Kincaid has 18 looks from Allen, to just eight for Knox and he has a 5-to-1 advantage in redzone opportunities. Keep in mind that Knox is the superior blocker and it is really the formations and game situations that dictate which is on the field, rather than a direct competition.
The only positive wager for the Buffalo pass-catchers, at the time this article was posted, is over 3.5 receptions for Kincaid. Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds page, we can see that the +135 available at BetMGM has a 5.2% expected ROI, while Caesars Sportsbook is punishing gamers with a +110 line, that equates out to a negative 5% ROI, when considering the +123 “true odds.”
Kicker | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Tyler Bass is eligible to return from the injured reserve, though there has not been any news on his availability. The team is not going to rush him back, so if he is active, he should be considered a full-go. Most likely it will be veteran Matt Prater continuing to handle the kicking duties. The 41-year-old is officially the oldest player in Buffalo franchise history, and he has been stellar converting all 13 of his PATs and 8 of 9 (89%) field goal attempts.
Defense | Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
New England has issues on the offensive line, which have led to 13 sacks through just one month of action. Expect Buffalo to get at least three quarterback takedowns tonight, with a couple more for upside. There is a high probability that the Bills will collect a couple of turnovers, though to be clear — this is far from a smothering defense. Defensive back Dorian Strong (neck) and linebacker Dorian Williams (knee) are out.
NFL DFS Picks for Patriots-Bills NFL DFS Picks for SNF Week 5: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Patriots-Bills
- Josh Allen: Captain, my Captain!
- Drake Maye: The dollar store version of Allen.
- James Cook III: Touchdown production has been off the charts, may find it tough between the tackles against interior defensive linemen Christian Barmore and Milton Williams (ankle).
- Stefon Diggs: Back in his old stomping grounds.
- Keon Coleman: Gets the nod on FanDuel over Shakir with a $2,600 discount.
- Khalil Shakir: Preferred on DraftKings, where he is only $200 more than Coleman.
- Hunter Henry: Live for a touchdown and a trusted checkdown option for Maye.
- Matt Prater: Assuming Bass remains out.
- Joshua Palmer: Take the savings on DraftKings ($3,000) and to a lesser extent FanDuel ($5,000).
- Andy Borregales: Rookie kicker gets his first primetime appearance.
Secondary Options
- Rhamondre Stevens and TreVeyon Henderson: Mr. Butterfingers is $2,800 cheaper on FanDuel and getting a $2,000 discount as compared to the rookie on DraftKings. Henderson shares kickoff return duties with Gibson.
- Kayshon Boutte: Seems to be safely above the scrum at the bottom of this position.
- Dalton Kincaid: Super spendy on FanDuel ($8,600) and DraftKings ($7,400), really needs a touchdown to be a DFS difference maker.
- Buffalo DST: #BillsMafia in the HOUSE!
- Dawson Knox: Cheap and on the field for around 55% of the plays and has been good for just over two targets per game since the start of last year.
Lottery Tickets
- Demario Douglas: Could “pop” up in lineups as a discount dandy.
- Ty Johnson, Ray Davis and Antonio Gibson: Not much to see here. Gibson is the lead kickoff returner for New England; Johnson is in the kickoff return mix as well for Buffalo.
- New England DST: Need a splash play such as a pick-six, scoop and score or kick return to the house.
- Mack Hollins: Running empty routes for New England after doing the same with Buffalo.
- Austin Hooper, Elijah Moore, Kyle Williams Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Shavers, and Jackson Hawes: They should all see the field, though collectively this motley crew projects for just over seven offensive opportunities.
