Thursday Night Football opens the Week 5 action with an injury-decimated San Francisco squad heading to Los Angeles, where the 49ers will be nearly one-touchdown road dogs to the Rams. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our 49ers-Rams Week 5 Thursday Night Football DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 5 DFS Picks: 49ers-Rams
This is going to be a tricky game to assess, with San Francisco relying on backups at all but one skill position on offense. In turn, Los Angeles has a chance to put some distance on a division rival and improve to a 4-1 record on the season. This is the first division game for the Rams, though it is already the third for the 49ers.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5: Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400
FanDuel: $13,200
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 24.66
FanDuel: 20.04
And then there was one. Tight end George Kittle was already out, quarterback Brock Purdy missed two starts, and wideouts Brandon Jennings and Rickey Pearsall have been banged up all year. Jennings missed prior games, though this will be the first for Pearsall despite him being on the sideline with trainers multiple times per game all season. Plus these injuries do not include Brandon Aiyuk, who appears to be falling behind on his rehabilitation schedule.
Christian McCaffrey is the last man standing, though he has assumed a heavy workload. Currently, he ranks sixth in the league with 17.3 carries per game, but he has a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry and no touchdowns. Of course, he is also second in the league for targets, including wide receivers and tight ends, averaging nearly 11 targets, 7.8 receptions and 76.3 yards per with two total touchdowns.
The Rams did a good job of containing Saquon Barkley for only 55 combined yards in Week 3, though Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard had 90-plus combined yards in Weeks 2 and 4, and L.A. held Houston’s backfield by committee in check during Week 1.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is sharp, and he has an eye on the big picture. It will not be a surprise if he does his best to limit the pounding McCaffrey takes in the running game on the short week. More than a dozen carries would be gravy, though it looks like there is no way around McCaffrey seeing double-digit targets is the passing game. Unless the game is completely out of hand early, it is unlikely McCaffrey will be pulled prior to halftime.
The Week 1 victory against Seattle looks particularly fortuitous now with San Francisco having the tiebreaker on the Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. The NFL has a long season before even getting to the playoffs, so gamers should not be angry if McCaffrey exits in the fourth quarter if the game is not easily winnable. There is also the possibility that things will be wildly out of hand in the second quarter, and if the 49ers are down 21-0, that too could be the impetus to have Shanahan sideline McCaffrey.
Brian Robinson Jr. played just 10 snaps on Sunday, compared to the 56 for McCaffrey. He should easily double that, if not triple his on-field presence, particularly in the running game. Considering how many pass catchers are out, it would not be a surprise to see both him and McCaffrey on the field together tonight.
Keep in mind that Robinson averaged 56.8 rushing yards per game in three seasons with Washington, which works out to just over 965 in a 17-game season. Considering he is the better runner at this stage of their careers and Robinson is a serviceable receiver, he should approach double-digit offensive opportunities tonight. While that is unlikely to appear in the median projections, it definitely is in the readily attainable upside outcomes.
Kyle Juszczyk does not have any carries through four games, though he has converted all seven of his receiving opportunities for 70 yards and a touchdown. In the two preceding seasons, he had 10 total carries, but it would not be a shock to see him get one tonight.
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San Francisco 49ers Positional Preview
Quarterback | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Mac Jones is a capable backup who already has guided the 49ers to a pair of victories, plus he helped make Brian Thomas Jr. look outstanding in Jacksonville last season. Jones probably had to take on too much, too fast in New England, though keep in mind he did end up with a Pro Bowl nomination in his rookie year after Tom Brady left for Tampa.
Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Jones is -110 to exceed 224.5 passing yards and -105 to collect at least 5.5 rushing yards, though he is also -190 to throw under 1.5 touchdowns, which is appropriate considering his overall lack of upside as well as a paucity of professional pass catchers.
FanDuel dropped the ball, figuratively and literally, with Jones earning a $1,000 salary. This means the blue site is essentially a pick’em tonight, though there still is an added level of strategy with this gaff. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic TNF Live Before Lock Show at 7:15 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Wide Receiver | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Kendrick Bourne is back in San Francisco after four seasons with the New England Patriots. He overlapped for three seasons with Jones, and he was a 49er for his first four seasons in the league, coinciding with Shanahan’s debut as a head coach. We know what we are getting from Bourne, though at least he has some familiarity with the system and the quarterback, unlike Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Demarcus Robinson.
Robinson missed the first three games serving a suspension, while MVS was inactive last week and Moore played eight or fewer snaps in three of the four games this season. We could see Russell Gage or Malik Turner move up from the practice squad, though neither moves the needle. Gage played 28 (37%) snaps in the opener in his only active game, so he is the most likely to be tabbed for tonight.
Tonight the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Bourne and Robinson with relatively even target shares of 17.8% to 15.8%, trailing the 28.9% of McCaffrey. The rest of the wideouts have a 12.5% target share, making things difficult to decipher on the low end of the totem pole.
Tight End | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Jake Tonges had 13 targets in the three games without Kittle and 16 total on the season. Tonges was a UDFA after five seasons as a Cal Bear, signing a 2022 deal with the Chicago Bears. He saw action in four games, getting one target. He was on the practice squad in 2023 with San Francisco after being a late training camp cut by Chicago. He did not see the field that year, but he did appear in 16 games last year, seeing no targets.
Luke Farrell is the other tight end filling in the void Kittle left, arriving in San Francisco after spending his first four years with Jacksonville, starting 20 of 66 games. He has five target in the three full games without Kittle. Brayden Willis has been the TE3, though he has been on the field for only nine offensive plays in the last three games.
Kicker | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
The 49ers are the fourth team for Eddy Pinero, who has played in 73 games across five-plus seasons in the league. He is good enough to hold a job, though his overall profile is not particularly notable. He made all seven of his field goal attempts, and in his three prior years as the full-time kicker for Carolina, he was 8-for-11 (73%) from 50-plus.
Defense | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Los Angeles is allowing two sacks per game this season, up a tick from last year. The Rams had just 14 turnovers last season, though they are up slightly with four this year. That nearly mirrors the 49ers takeaway rates the last two years. Losing Nick Bosa for the season is going to have a very detrimental impact on the San Francisco pass rush. Defensive lineman Robert Beal Jr. (ankle) is also out, and fellow lineman CJ West (thumb) is questionable.
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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5: Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600
FanDuel: $12,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 23.36
FanDuel: 18.08
Through four games, Puka Nacua leads the league in targets (50), receptions (42), receiving yards (502) and plays of 20-plus yards (8). While he has “only” one touchdown, his 502 yards are 100 more than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is averaging a tremendous 100.5 yards per tilt.
Davante Adams is no slouch either, ranking eighth with 35 targets, catching 17 for 269 yards (16th) and three touchdowns. He also has five plays of 20-plus yards. Jordan Whittington is running wind sprints, on the field for 62% of the offensive action but having been targeted just six times. Tutu Atwell has five looks, while Xavier Smith is the only other wideout to have an opportunity, and that was in Week 1.
Considering how much of the volume has been going to Nacua and Adams this year, and with what we saw the last two years between Cooper Kupp and Nacua, there is not much left to go around in any meaningful or specifically projectable production to a particular pass catcher.
Los Angeles Rams Positional Preview
Quarterback | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Matthew Stafford and his creaky back have held up so far, though he will be 38 years old in February and this is his 17th NFL campaign. The 88-yard touchdown to Atwell with 1:33 left in the game on Sunday was the longest pass of Stafford’s career. We know he is going to limit sacks and interceptions and add nothing on the ground, but considering this passing attack and the rest of the player pool, Stafford is worthy of consideration for the multiplier slot — similar to Jordan Love and Dak Prescott on Sunday Night Football.
Running Back | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Kyren Williams continues to be the lead back, though we his snap share slid since Week 1 (82%, 70%, 76% and 68%), while second-year back Blake Corum pushed upwards (17%, 30%, 24% and 29%).
In the last two weeks, Corum had eight and nine carries, and he got first half action as well. Considering this is a short week, and with how thinned out the 49ers offense is, we could see Corum have a reasonable path to a fair amount of second half run in the right game flow.
No other running backs stepped between the lines on offense, though there is a chance that rookie Jarquez Hunter could not only get a couple plays, but he is live for some late-game mop-up duty.
Similarly with trying to project overall workload for the San Francisco backfield, the Stokastic NFL DFS stat projections have Williams with a 17.6 to 7.98 lead in carries over Corum and double the targets at 2.2 to 0.9. That phrase “double the targets” is meant to show the difference in framing versus something like “one more target than …”
Tonight between the injuries, short week and, of course, being early in the season, the probabilistic outcomes for both backfields likely skew towards the RB2s. That is where using the Top Showdown Plays Tool can be very helpful when trying to visualize range of outcomes for the single-game action.
Tight End | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Tyler Higbee (hip) may be out tonight, which would consolidate things between Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson. Higbee is third on the team with 11 targets, well behind Nacua and Adams, though that is tied with Williams. Aside from Week 2 when Parkinson was out, he and Allen have each been on the field for around one-third of the offensive action, with Higbee basically doubling them.
Kicker | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Joshua Karty had an uneven rookie season. Among the highs were converting on 6 of 7 (86%) of his field goal attempts from 50-plus yards, though he did miss four point-after-touchdown attempts. This year, he has been one of the more effective kickoff specialists, crafting a “knuckleball” of sorts that has very little spin/rotation and has been tricky for returners to have any momentum when catching it, as it has a lower-than-traditional flight path. Though this does not earn Karty fantasy points, it is one more thing working against the 49ers tonight since there is a big difference between starting on the 23-yard line as compared to league average which is right around the 29- to 30-yard line.
Defense | 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Jones has a 4.6% sack rate this season and one interception in 80 pass attempts. The Rams are second in the league at 14 sacks, tied with Detroit and one behind Denver. Los Angeles is also fourth with seven takeaways and 10th in points allowed at only 20.3 per contest.
NFL DFS Picks for 49ers-Rams NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 5: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Rams
- Christian McCaffrey: Last man standing; plenty of risk to get in-game rest depending on the score.
- Puka Nacua: The co-No. 1 and arguably safer play.
- Mac Jones: There is a strong argument that he should be on 100% of FanDuel rosters at the $1,000 minimum. Very little rushing upside; move below Adams and Stafford on DraftKings.
- Davante Adams: Another tremendous season for the future Hall of Famer; expect the touchdowns to balance out between him and Nacua, though their combined workload is on an unprecedented pace, giving each a strong floor and attainable ceiling outcomes.
- Matthew Stafford: Needs multiple passing touchdowns and at least 270 yards to have a chance at being the optimal multiplier slot winner on the main DFS sites. Those are far from ridiculous targets, particularly if San Francisco can keep things competitive for three quarters.
- Kyren Williams: Less immediate rest risk than McCaffrey, though he is going to need to score at least once to make up for his lack of receiving production.
- Joshua Karty: No questions about his leg.
- Kendrick Bourne: Literal last man standing in the non-CMC category.
- Blake Corum: With Jones being mispriced on FanDuel, Corum is not particularly enticing on the blue site — unless the expectation is that he is the closer in the lopsided game. He is very appealing on DraftKings at $3,000, which pushes him into the top 10. Shares kickoff duties with Whittington.
- Los Angeles DST: A shutout is unlikely, but not impossible.
Secondary Options
- Jake Tonges and Demarcus Robinson: Jones has to throw it to someone other than McCaffrey and Bourne, right?
- Eddy Pineiro: Field goal opportunities are fluky, particularly on limited offenses. San Francisco could struggle to cross midfield tonight, or they may be able to move the ball but be held out of the red zone.
- Brian Robinson Jr.: Should outperform median projections, though in a lopsided game, 3 yards and a cloud of field turf particles is not an exciting way to get fantasy points. However, it does keep the clock moving and gets both teams onto a long week of rest. Do not underestimate this outcome, and build some lineups to account for it.
Lottery Tickets
- Jordan Whittington: Has an established role; just hard to produce with 60% or more of the passing game opportunities concentrated with the dynamic duo.
- Skyy Moore: Lead kickoff returner and main guy on punts; former Kansas City Mr. Butterfingers is doing well with the change of scenery. Should see a couple of targets from Jones with the thinned-out offensive options.
- Tutu Atwell: Can get there on one play, may only have three chances per game, though.
- Luke Farrell and Kyle Juszczyk: Both will be on the field a fair amount and are live for a target or two.
- Isaac Guerendo: Another candidate for mop-up duty, so Robinson is not going to have the gig to himself. Guerendo also returns kickoffs.
- San Francisco DST: Will need a splash play via a kick return, pick-6 or scoop and score to move the DFS needle.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Dollar store version of Atwell.
- Xavier Smith, Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson: Even if Higbee sits, Allen and Parkinson are not particularly enticing with all the other discounted options, aside from being a touchdown lottery ticket. Smith returns punts, though an offensive target is unlikely with just 10 snaps this season.
- Malik Turner, Jacob Cowling, Russell Gage Jr., Braden Willis, Tyler Ferguson, Jarquez Hunter, Konata Mumpfield, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Jerry Rice and Marshall Faulk: Half of these guys will be inactive tonight, the rest are just fancy play syndrome clicks.
