NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Bengals at Ravens (Week 13)

Cincinnati will at least have some hope now that the franchise quarterback is poised to return to action after missing 2 1/2 months. The Bengals (3-8) are not yet mathematically eliminated, though the team probably needs to win out and get help down the stretch. Technically, it is three games behind both Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the NFC North crown, so from that perspective, it could lose tonight and still remain in the hunt for the postseason. Baltimore is a 7.5-point home favorite in this matchup with a 51.5-point game total, so hopefully we get some Thanksgiving fireworks as a nightcap to the festive holiday.

The dodgy defenses mean there is ample DFS strategy to consider. In this edition of the Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll provide our Bengals-Ravens Week 13 TNF DFS plays for the NFL Showdown action.

NFL Thursday Night Football Week 13 DFS Picks: Bengals-Ravens

NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13: Joe Burrow

It is hard to infer much from Burrow’s slow start to the season since that was a lifetime ago in NFL terms, though Joe Flacco did not gain much traction the last two weeks, failing to top 200 passing yards in Pittsburgh or against New England. Expect Burrow to be rusty, but the Ravens have not faced a real quarterback for nearly a month, going against Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, rookie J.J. McCarthy, and the run started with Tua Tagovailoa, so feel free to classify him as you wish.

Even against that stretch of palookas, the Ravens allow 230.1 passing yards per game, which is ninth in the league, with a solid 16 touchdowns and a reasonable 89.2 passer rating posted by opposing signal-callers. Josh Allen tossed two touchdowns in the opener, while Patrick Mahomes lobbed four in Week 4 and C.J. Stroud also had four in Week 5. Burrow is a reasonable option in the flex/utility slot, though he is harder to consider for the multiplier role. The key here is harder but not impossible.

If Burrow were not coming in after such a long layoff, pointing out that he had games of 428/4/0 and 392/5/1 against Baltimore last year would have been in the first paragraph. The former LSU Tiger averages around 11 rushing yards per game for his career, and while that is not much, the last time I went into great detail about this perceived weakness (for an Oct. 13, 2024 Sunday Night Football matchup), he broke off a 47-yard rushing score early in the first quarter, which was 1 yard short of his previous career high of 48 rushing yards in a single game! Anything can happen in a sport based around an oblong ball that takes funny bounces.

Cincinnati Bengals Positional Preview

Running Back | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

Samaje Perine is expected to be available after missing time with an ankle injury that he suffered in Week 9 against Chicago. Rookie Tahj Brooks (concussion) had 16 of his 29 total offensive snaps in the two games without Perine, while Kendall Milton stepped between the lines for four offensive plays in Week 11 after the bye. Prior to his injury, Perine saw work on 30% to 40% of the snaps, with Chase Brown in the 55% to 60% range, much to the dismay of his fantasy supporters.

Perine has not seen much volume, with only nine targets and 32 carries for 198 yards and a touchdown. The 6.2 yards per carry are nice, though on low volume and picked up on a lot of passing situations when the defense fell back.

Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Brown for 14.3 carries and 68.7 yards, plus 4.3 targets for 3.5 receptions and 23.4 yards, along with a 60% probability of scoring a touchdown. Perine is at 4.6 carries and 20.1 yards, accompanied by 1.8 targets for 1.5 receptions and 12.7 yards. Perine is a potential salary saver on DraftKings ($2,200), though he has about half of the popularity on FanDuel ($4,000).

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Wide Receiver | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

The analysis for Chase is that he should see double-digit targets but also have the focus of the defense. Though the Ravens allowed three wideouts to post 100-plus yard games, 10 more had at least 50 receiving yards against them this season, with seven different tight ends topping 40 yards. Mike Gesicki returned from a five-week absence with a 43% snap share, while Noah Fant slipped to 28% after he had consolidated the receiving role with Gesicki out. Drew Sample will be on the field around 50% of the snaps, mostly serving as a blocker, though the former University of Washington stalwart proved capable on his limited volume.

Andrei Iosivas played a lot this season, but he is well behind Chase and Higgins. He does have 42 targets, which is third on the team, and he should be in the mix for at least four looks on Thursday night, with a couple more targets in attainable upside. Second-year UDFA Mitchell Tinsley will also be working in as the WR3, though keep in mind that Gesicki can also fulfill those responsibilities.

Tinsley bounced around three colleges, spending two years at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas, transferring to Western Kentucky (where he was a starter in his second season), then he finished up with a final year at Penn State. He was a UDFA that was with Washington’s practice squad in 2023, getting in two games, though he did not see his first target until earlier this year. He did have a touchdown on Sunday, and he is a potential discount dandy on DraftKings ($4,600, 6.7%) and especially on FanDuel ($1,200, 28.7%).

Kicker | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

After a tough season last year, Evan McPherson returned to “Money Mac” form this season and connected on a career-long 63-yard field goal attempt last week. His 85% success rate is also a personal best and well above his 72.7% success rate last year. All three of his misses were from 50-plus yards, and keep in mind he plays most of his games outdoors.

Defense | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

The Bungles have only 15 sacks this season, which is the second fewest in the league, though the Ravens allow nearly three per game. Cincinnati is also in the bottom third of the league with a tick shy of one takeaway per game, while Baltimore is in the middle of the pack, ceding just over one turnover per tilt.

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NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 13: Derrick Henry

Last year in the two games between Baltimore and Cincinnati, which included a ridiculous 148 combined points, Henry did not have gaudy production, though he had 70-plus combined yards and a touchdown in each tilt. Fifteen different running backs put up at least 70 combined yards against Cincinnati this season, and it would not be a surprise to see Henry flirt with 20 fantasy points if he can get into the end zone at least once.

Justice Hill (neck) is out, which opens up more opportunities for Keaton Mitchell, who is the son of NFL defensive back Anthony Mitchell, a backup in the league for six years with Baltimore, Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Mitchell was a UDFA out of East Carolina, though he was also drafted in the fourth round of the UFL Draft in 2023 after he exited the college ranks after three seasons.

Currently, the Stokastic NFL projections have Henry for 18.5 carries and 99.4 yards, plus 1.6 targets for 1.2 receptions and 10.4 yards, along with a 90% probability of getting one touchdown and nearly a 40% likelihood of reaching paydirt twice. Mitchell is projected for five carries and 26.9 yards, with nearly two targets for 10 yards. He does have a path to additional opportunities in mop-up duty, though a lot of things need to break his way.

Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview

Quarterback | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

Last year, Lamar Jackson had a whopping 41 passing touchdowns, with four in each of the two games against Cincinnati. The two-time NFL MVP and three-time First-Team All-Pro leads the league with his career 8.25 air yards per attempt and his 102.6 passer rating. The OddsShopper Live Odds have Jackson at -115 for over 230.5 passing yards, a ridiculous -210 for more than 1.5 passing touchdowns and -115 for over 27.5 rushing yards.

Jackson missed a month with his hamstring issue, and he struggled over the last four games despite3 Baltimore winning each matchup. Though he had four passing touchdowns in his first game back on the road in Miami, he had one aerial strike in the last three games while averaging a weak 181.5 passing yards per game during this stretch, with only 14.8 rushing yards on average.

While it is clear that Jackson is not at his usual apex level, similar to Burrow, he had four touchdowns in each matchup against Cincinnati last year, with 290 and 348 passing yards.

Pass Catchers | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

The Baltimore pass-catching corps is essentially a two-man show, with third-year wideout Zay Flowers looking improved over his Pro Bowl campaign from last year and tight end Mark Andrews having been one of the most dependable recipients of Jackson’s passes since they were rookies back in 2018. Cincinnati’s defense has been dreadful for a couple of seasons, though this is one of the worst iterations yet, further hindered by the absence of starting defensive end Trey Hendrickson.

Rashod Bateman missed the last two games with an ankle injury, and he is questionable for tonight; however, he was listed as a full practice participant on Wednesday. Devontez Walker had been filling in, though he saw only one target on his 34 combined plays the last two weeks. Tylan Wallace and DeAndre Hopkins are splitting the WR3 role. Hopkins saw four and three targets in the two games without Bateman, but he has only 25 on the season and just one in the red zone. Wallace has only eight targets, and he took a backseat to Mitchell and Rasheen Ali for kickoff return duties.

Crazy things can happen, especially with Jackson not playing favorites in the red zone. Andrews leads the team with five touchdown catches, though tight end Charlie Kolar has two on his 11 targets, and Isaiah Likely is always a threat to score as well. Hopkins, Bateman and Walker each scored twice, with Flowers, Wallace and Hill posting one touchdown reception.

There are many potential paths to a unique lineup build, so be sure to tune into the Stokastic Thanksgiving Live Before Lock Show at 11:00 a.m. ET breaking down all the games with the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Kicker | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

Rookie Tyler Loop has been solid this season, converting 22 of 24 (91.7%), with both misses coming from 50-plus yards. The sixth-round selection out of Arizona nailed 27 of 28 (96%) point-after-touchdown attempts and has done a phenomenal job of making Baltimore fans forget his predecessor.

Defense | Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for TNF Week 13

The Ravens have the fourth-fewest sacks in the league with 18, while Cincy is solid, ceding just over two per game. Still, Burrow has a hefty 7.22% sack rate for his career, and Baltimore had three in each of the last two games, with nine in the last four. Expect at least one turnover for the Ravens in this matchup, and two is not out of the question against Burrow after his long layoff.

NFL DFS Picks for Bengals-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for MNF Week 12: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Ravens

1. Ja’Marr Chase: Gets the quarterback upgrade and is the clear priority with Higgins on the sidelines.
2. Derrick Henry: Tied for the league lead with 16 touchdowns last year, and he had three scores in the last two weeks.
3. Chase Brown: Solid touchdown odds, and while Perine will take away some of his playing time, he should still see 15 offensive opportunities with another five in realistically attainable upside.
4. Zay Flowers: Due for positive touchdown regression.
5. Lamar Jackson: Still not at full strength, which dings the rushing upside.
6. Joe Burrow: Slight concerns for his effectiveness after the lengthy toe surgery rehabilitation.
7. Mark Andrews: Gets the goal line carries when Baltimore uses the “tush push” formation.
8. Evan McPherson: Great name, and he has his swagger back.
9. Tyler Loop: Not bad for a rookie; temperatures will be in the upper 30s tonight with a slight breeze knocking 8 to 10 degrees off for wind chill.
10. Keaton Mitchell and Mitchell Tinsley: The former is an excellent salary saver on DraftKings, with the latter getting the FanDuel nod. Each drops to the middle of the Secondary Options section on the opposite DFS sites.

Secondary Options

1. Rashod Bateman: Always live for a little touchdown magic, though baseline volume is thin with 3 to 4 targets the most likely outcome.
2. Isaiah Likely: Since the Week 7 bye, his 17 targets are only two behind Andrews.
3. Mike Gesicki: Provides a discount to his teammate below.
4. Andrei Iosivas: Waaaaay more experience than Tinsley, though he has a hefty salary for his projected workload.
5. Samaje Perine: Better on DraftKings ($2,200) with full-PPR over FanDuel ($4,000). He should benefit with Burrow back, but he does not have much volume when considering his overall snap share. Likely will be in as the secondary man for kickoff returns with Brooks out.