UFC 291 DFS Picks and Value Plays: Dustin Poirier-Justin Gaethje

The UFC returns to Salt Lake City for UFC 291: Dustin Poirier-Justin Gaethje. They will be joined by Alex Pereira and Jan Blachowicz in the co-main event. This pay-per-view card comes with extra wrinkles for UFC DFS and features several fights with longer favorites. Let’s review some UFC DFS picks, value plays with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Nonetheless, onto our UFC Fight Night DFS picks, predictions and more. Nonetheless, onto our UFC 291 DFS picks.

UFC 291 DFS Picks: Dustin Poirier-Justin Gaethje

*The salaries below are from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC fight Night DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.

Matthew Semelsberger, $8,600

While the main event should certainly be prioritized on this card, the preliminary card offers plenty of upside spots for DFS. One such spot looks like Matthew Semelsberger taking on Uros Medic as a -205 favorite. Throughout the week, Semelsberger has taken considerable money, making him a value based on his DFS salary. Additionally, this fight comes with one of the higher projected paces, according to the Stokastic projections.

Starting with Semelsberger, the former Marist college football player enters this fight off a split decision loss to Jeremiah Wells. Semelsberger comes from a wrestling background, but he has developed a fairly well rounded game over the years. He lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.21. Semelsberger actually possesses solid 56% striking defense, which should ease any concerns regarding the negative striking ratio. On the mat, he lands 1.16 takedowns on average with 70% accuracy. However, he has been out-grappled at times, evidenced by his 52% takedown defense. Most recently, Wells landed six takedowns on Semelsberger and controlled him for over 11 minutes. At 11-5 overall, Semelsberger has six knockouts and one submission victory on the profile. 

Medic has a diverse mixed martial arts background that includes wrestling, kickboxing, and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ). He currently lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.76. Medic has never landed a takedown in the UFC, but he has also only been taken down once himself. This occurred against Jalin Turner, resulting in his only professional loss. Overall, Medic sits at 8-1 with six knockout wins and another two submissions. With that said, his lack of UFC statistics could cloud some of his skills for now. 

As for DFS purposes, Semelsberger has been known to chain wrestle his opponents. This creates massive upside for DFS, in addition to the money he has already taken throughout the week.

Vinicius Salvador, $7,500

Another uptempo early pre-lim fight, CJ Vergara takes on Vinicius Salvador as a -155 favorite. The opposite of the Semelsberger-Medic fight, Salvador has taken money throughout the week, providing value to the underdog. In a fight with the highest projected pace on the slate, Salvador stands out as a potential underdog to target on a slate short on quality underdogs.

Vergara comes from a Muay Thai striking background and lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute. He only absorbs 4.75 behind his 53% striking defense. Vergara has never landed a takedown in his career, but he defends them at 72%. The only fighter to control him on the mat to this point has been Tatsuro Taira, but Vergara has pretty solid defense if a fight hits the mat. At 11-4 in his career, Vergara enters this fight off a knockout win over Daniel Lacerda back in March. 

On the other side, Salvador also comes from a striking background, with 13 of his 14 professional wins coming via knockout. Salvador has been knocked out twice himself and does have some durability concerns. Overall, he lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.29. Salvador theoretically has an advantage on the ground, but he only lands 0.62 takedowns per bout. Vergara isn’t much of a threat on the ground, but Salvador does defend takedowns at 86%. Overall, Salvador enters this bout off a loss to Victor Altamirano back in March as well. 

In what should be an uptempo striking affair, plenty of value sits with the underdog. Salvador theoretically has an advantage on the ground, but he holds clear knockout power for a flyweight. The Stokastic projections give him a 42.2% chance of winning this fight and a 32.3% chance of finishing it.

Gabriel Bonfim, $9,200

On a card with multiple longer favorites, Gabriel Bonfim stands out as a potential leverage play. Bonfim enters his fight against Trevin Giles as a -330 favorite, which is up from -300 earlier this week. This fight doesn’t have the highest pace, but Bonfim actually checks in with the second-highest value score, according to the Stokastic projections.

Previously fighting on the Contender Series, Bonfim won his UFC debut over Mounir Lazzez via submission back in January. A specialist on the ground, Bonfim enters this bout with a perfect 14-0 record. Among these wins, Bonfim has three knockouts and 11 submissions, giving him a perfect finishing rate. Hyper aggressive, Bonfim lands 6.95 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.76 himself. Despite these high numbers, Bonfim still has 65% striking defense. On the mat, Bonfim lands 2.98 takedowns per bout with 100% takedown defense. He still hasn’t fought the same caliber of competition as Giles, but his regional record actually looks decent here. 

On the other side, Giles enters this fight on a two-fight winning streak after defeating Preston Parsons in March of this year. Giles comes in with a 16-4 professional record. He holds six knockout wins and five submission victories. At the same time, he has been knocked out and submitted twice himself. As for UFC stats, Giles lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.09. He also lands 1.29 takedowns, while defending them at 73% himself. Overall, he has proven himself as a fairly well rounded fighter and competent enough to stand with some of the division’s best.

Despite the proven pedigree of Giles, Bonfim looks like the more explosive overall. Both fighters keep a solid pace and Bonfim has the ground game to neutralize Giles’ wrestling. For these reasons, he looks like a solid pivot away from some of the other expensive fighters on this slate in our UFC 291 DFS picks.