The UFC returns to London for UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura. They will be joined by Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko in the co-main event. This Fight Night card comes with extra wrinkles for UFC DFS and features several fights with short underdogs. Let’s review some UFC DFS picks, value plays with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Nonetheless, onto our UFC Fight Night DFS picks, predictions and more.
UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Value Plays: Tom Aspinall-Marcin Tybura
*The salaries below are from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC fight Night DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Yanal Ashmouz, $7,800
An absolute banger of a fight, Chris Duncan fights Yanal Ashmouz in the men’s lightweight division. As it stands, Duncan comes in as a short -140 favorite. Duncan currently holds a 1-0 record in the UFC with a win over Omar Morales. Likewise, Ashmouz smashed Sam Patterson in his UFC debut to put him at 1-0 in the promotion. From a volume standpoint, this fight has the second highest pace according to our projections.
A well-rounded fighter, Duncan currently lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing the same. He also lands 4.73 takedowns per bout with 36% accuracy. Interestingly, Duncan has never faced a takedown attempt in his UFC career. Of his ten wins, he has seven knockouts and one submission. Duncan’s durability should be questioned after getting knocked out against Viacheslav Borshchev on the Contender Series. He also ate some absolute bombs from Charlie Campbell on his second Contender Series appearance. His 41% striking defense shows that he can be touched on the feet.
On the other side, Ashmouz’s limited UFC experience makes him a tougher evaluation. It only took 15 strikes and one takedown for him to put away Patterson in the first round of his UFC debut. Ashmouz has four knockouts and a pair of submissions within his seven professional wins. His lack of UFC experience appears in his wild striking. However, he does have solid wrestling and solid ground and pound. He also has a willing dance partner, who will push a pace wherever the fight goes.
For two fighters with such solid records, this actually looks like a lower-level fight. However, what it lacks in talent, it makes up for in aggression. With a good chance for a finish and a better chance for an elite score in a decision, this is a fight to target on either side. For those strapped with salary, Ashmouz has the wild striking to potentially put Duncan away here.
Makhmud Muradov, $9,500
An interesting wrinkle to this fight card, Tom Aspinall comes in favored by a wider margin than any other fighter and it’s not particularly close. However, DraftKings’ pricing structure still has fighters like Makhmud Muradov just $200 cheaper. With that said, this could create an opportunity for leverage in what projects as the highest paced fight this weekend. As it stands, Muradov takes on Bryan Barberena as a -325 favorite this weekend.
Overall, Muradov has a 25-8 professional record with 17 wins by knockout. He lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.72. Muradov also averages 0.7 takedowns per bout, while defending them at 76%. He has been submitted four times in his career, but that shouldn’t be much of a threat against Barberena. A true striker’s paradise, these two are here to bang it out on the feet.
Like Muradov, Barberena remains a pure striker. He lands 5.81 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.83. Barberena does have some defensive deficiencies, including 44% striking defense and 54% takedown defense. At 18-10, Barberena has been knocked out twice and submitted three times. His most recent wins came against some older competition in Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown.
To put it simply, these two are here to knock each other’s heads off. Muradov should have a technical advantage and a grappling advantage if he chooses. With a high likelihood for a finish, Muradov could easily rival a high score put up by Aspinall and provide strong leverage in the process.
Mick Parkin, $7,300
It’s very rare that a fighter as cheap as Mick Parkin grades out this well in the Stokastic projections. His price also opens the door to a bevy of roster constructions. As for his individual fight, the UFC newcomer will take on Jamal Pogues as a +135 underdog in the ever-volatile heavyweight division.
Parkin’s small sample makes him a tough evaluation here. He landed seven strikes and two takedowns in his Contender Series match. Parkin also allowed 16 strikes and two takedowns in a fight that only lasted minutes. The UFC newcomer does appear to have some decent wrestling, which will be important against Pogues. However, he does some of his best work with his hands, evidenced by his five knockouts. Overall, this fight comes in tied for third in terms of projected pace.
Pogues comes from a wrestling background and lands 4.0 takedowns per bout with 50% accuracy. Pogues only has 66% takedown defense, but this speaks more to the limited takedown attempts he has been forced to defend. On the feet, Pogues lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.56. Despite the negative striking differential, Pogues still has four wins by knockout in his career. Still, this should open the door for a well-rounded fighter like Parkin to take advantage of.
The betting line tells the whole story here. Low level heavyweights are some of the most volatile fighters on the UFC roster. The line continues to move Parkin’s direction, making him one of the best raw values on the entire card.
