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How to Bet UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs. Rodriguez | Expert UFC Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions 10/9/21




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UFC Vegas 39 features a 10-fight lineup, and it is one of the weaker UFC cards this year. From a UFC picks and predictions perspective, this is not the best card either, but there are a handful of spots that are ripe for the picking. As always, when shopping for the best UFC betting odds and lines, make sure to use Awesemo OddsShopper to find the top odds at various sportsbooks. It is easily the best tool when it comes to shopping for the top ROI odds for the fights, and it will save bettors a lot of money in the long run. Let’s dig into some of the best UFC betting picks for Vegas 39: Dern vs. Rodriguez.

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How to Bet on UFC Vegas 39: Expert UFC Betting Picks

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez

Strawweight contenders will be in action in the main event this weekend as Mackenzie Dern takes on striker Marina Rodriguez. Dern wants to take the fight to the mat where she is probably the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner in the UFC. Rodriguez will want to keep the fight at range and use her striking. If Dern cannot get the fight to the mat, she will be in for a long night of getting picked apart at range by Rodriguez, the problem for Rodriguez, though, is her takedown defense is not great, and once she gets taken down, she can get controlled pretty easily. It is very unlikely that Dern can win a striking-based decision against Rodriguez, and if Dern can consistently earn top position over five rounds, she will find a finish. On the flip side, if Dern cannot find the takedown, there is a good chance Rodriguez can get a striking finish. Taking the unders on this fight could be a path to covering more outcomes, but the plus money on the best submission grappler in the game is the better move.

The Bet: Mackenzie Dern by Submission +100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Dern by submission was previously at +120, and now it is at +100 on most books. There is still plenty of value on that line all the way until -115.

Charles Ontiveros vs. Steve Garcia

This is an extremely low-level fight, with Charles Ontiveros returning after losing by submission to Kevin Holland via a scary slam to the mat. He took that fight on extremely short notice, and it is surprising that he is getting another shot with the organization. Ontiveros will be taking on Steve Garcia, whose only UFC appearance was a decision loss to Luis Pena. Prior to that, Garcia has finished three of his last four fights, including a first-round TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series against Desmond Torres. In his last nine fights, Ontiveros has only gone to decision one time, and that was all the way back in 2016. He and Garcia seem to be finish-or-be-finished fighters, and Vegas agrees, with the fight not going to decision at -250 (DraftKings Sportsbook). In Ontiveros last eight fights — all fights ending inside the distance — none have seen the third round, and Garcia has not ended in the third round since 2013. This seems like a fight that will end within the first two rounds, so getting -164 on the fight ending inside 2.5 rounds is good value.

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The Bet: Ontiveros/Garcia Under 2.5 -164 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jared Gooden via TKO +460

This line is very wide. Jared Gooden is a +185 underdog to Randy Brown this weekend, and chances are Brown will end up victorious. However, one of Gooden’s best paths to victory is by knockout, as he has a lot of power in his hands. On top of that, Brown has some durability issues, having been finished by Niko Price and Vincente Luque. This is not a bet to invest in heavily, but line is too wide for Gooden’s best path to victory.

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