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USFL DFS Picks: Week 8 USFL DraftKings Strategy

Matt Gajewski

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With seven weeks in the rearview mirror, the USFL continues to Week 8 in a 10-week regular season. At this point, the Birmingham Stallions and New Jersey have already clinched playoff berths. Every game this year has been played in Birmingham, leaving little to play for. The league already functions with an added degree of volatility from suspect injury reporting and whimsical decision making from certain coaches. Now adding in the upcoming playoffs, the league should continue to provide information edges for those playing GPPs. This piece will dig into the particulars of each game, pointing towards the best DraftKings USFL DFS picks this week.

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Week 8 DraftKings USFL DFS Picks

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Pittsburgh vs New Jersey USFL DFS Picks

Pittsburgh Maulers

The worst team in the USFL by a wide margin, the 1-6 Pittsburgh Maulers have been outscored 164-92 by opponents this year. Already cutting their best signal caller and benching another due to “body language”, the Maulers may end up firing head coach Kirby Wilson after the season. As a team, they rank fifth in pace and second in pass rate (54.3%). However, this team routinely attempts to establish the run before falling behind and resorting to the pass. Now a weekly tradition, the Maulers have the lowest implied team total (16.0) and face a top two defense in the New Jersey Generals.

At quarterback, the Maulers used Vad Lee ($7,900) for most of the game, until Wilson decided that he didn’t approve of the quarterback’s body language. Regardless, Lee has played poorly and deserved to be benched. In three games of action, Lee has a 52.5% completion percentage for 5.33 yards per attempt and three interceptions. With Lee benched, newly signed backup Roland Rivers ($6,000) did not perform much better. Rivers only completed three of nine passes for 25 yards. The former Slippery Rock starter did show some mobility in college, but he didn’t log a rushing attempt here. Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation has been a revolving door and they now face the second-best defense in the league. This remains a situation to avoid.

At running back, the Maulers continued with the usual split featuring Garrett Groshek ($5,700) and Madre London ($5,900). As usual, the two split snaps evenly at 46% and 48% apiece. The backfield did shift with London playing primarily on running down. Overall, London carried 18 times for 99 yards and a touchdown, while Groshek rumbled to 29 yards on 10 carries. Meanwhile, Groshek dominated passing downs, participating in 50% of the routes to London’s 12%. Even with the clear split, both backs also ceded 25% of the snaps, two carries and three targets to fullback Mikey Daniel ($3,200). Apparently disappointed in the backs so far this year, Pittsburgh also signed James Gilbert ($3,000) to their roster last week but left him inactive. New Jersey allows the fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.5), making this a situation to avoid regardless.

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The biggest disappointment in Pittsburgh was the shift at receiver. Tre Walker ($4,700) and Bailey Gaither ($9,100) had been the lone two bright spots to this point. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh transferred Walker to the inactive roster without listing him on the injury report. Likewise, Gaither saw his route share reduced to 35% with just three targets. The two still rank fourth and fifth in overall receiving yards, showing how curious this looks. In their place, Isiah Hennie ($3,400) and Delvon Hardaway ($3,700) participated in 96% and 88% of the routes. Hardaway went catchless on three targets, while Hennie brought in three of five targets for 18 yards. Behind them, newly signed Jalen McCleskey ($3,000) participated in 62% of the routes, catching one of three targets for 18 yards. Overall, fullback Daniel led the team with 21 receiving yards, showing how inept this offense can be. At tight end, Hunter Thedford ($2,500) and Artayvious Lynn ($2,500) each participated in 35% and 31% of the routes. The team did move Walker back to their active roster, making him an intriguing value play based on talent. Overall, this is a situation to avoid.

New Jersey Generals

Now 6-1 to start the season, the New Jersey Generals have outscored their opponents 152-118 this season. A unique offense even by USFL standards, the Generals run the third-most plays per game, while passing at the lowest rate in the USFL (40.2%). Already clinching a playoff berth in the north, the Generals have questionable motivation moving forward. This week, they’re 9-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Maulers in a game with a 41-point total. Implied for 25 points, the Generals hold the second-highest implied team total this week.

Despite entering the game with the questionable tag, De’Andre Johnson ($8,600) ultimately missed Week 7. This allowed Luis Perez ($7,500) to take every snap. Perez has played solid football this year, completing 67% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. The AAF and XFL veteran offers no mobility, but he will take every snap without Johnson. However, the Generals moved Johnson to their active roster, potentially creating a timeshare. In the week before suffering the ankle injury, Johnson took every offensive snap at quarterback. Johnson leads the USFL with a 72% completion percentage for an absurd 10.5 yards per attempt. He also remains the single best dual threat in the league, giving him immense upside, if active. This remains a wait and see situation, but either quarterback could be viable in the right circumstances.

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With Johnson out of the picture, Trey Williams ($9,500) and Darius Victor ($7,600) predictably handled more work on the ground. Williams out-snapped Victor 53% to 47%, but Victor held the edge in carries. Overall, Williams carries eight times for 14 yards, while Victor handled 14 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown. Williams also participated in 50% of the routes, compared to 31% for Victor. Even on fewer routes, Victor out-targeted Williams 3-2. Overall, this backfield continues to be a split, but the balance has shifted slightly towards Victor. Receiver KaVontae Turpin ($8,600) also averages three carries per game in his gadget role. Of the group, Victor remains the best price-adjusted DFS play.

At receiver, Turpin leads the USFL with 361 receiving yards. More impressively, he’s done that on just 40 targets (24.2%). Turpin doesn’t have the best route participation, seeing just 65% and 53% of the routes over the last two weeks. However, his Deebo Samuel-type role makes him a solid DFS play. Alongside Turpin, Alonzo Moore ($4,900) and J’Mon Moore ($3,000) participated in 96% and 85% of the routes. Alonzo saw six targets, catching four for 69 yards, while J’Mon caught four of four targets for 37 yards. It should be noted that Moore’s return to the offense coincided with a Darrius Shepherd ($4,000) absence due to a hamstring injury. Still, it looks like J’Mon is the preferred WR3 when everyone is healthy. Outside of the big three, Cameron Echols-Luper ($3,000) and Randy Satterfield ($4,100) rotated in for a handful of snaps, while Woody Brandom ($2,500) and Braedon Bowman ($2,500) split the tight end position evenly with 50% of the routes, respectively. Overall, all three of the main pass catchers can be used in GPPs with a preference to Turpin in his gadget role.

New Orleans vs Birmingham USFL DFS Picks

New Orleans Breakers

The favorite to land the second playoff spot in the South, the New Orleans Breakers sit at 5-2 while outscoring opponents 167-128 this season. The Breakers notoriously run the fastest offense in the USFL and pass at the third highest rate (52.8%). They draw a tough matchup as 3-point underdogs to the undefeated Birmingham Stallions. However, the Stallions have already clinched a playoff berth, raising motivation questions. Overall, the Breakers bring a serviceable 20.5 implied team total to the Week 8 slate.

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For the second straight week, the New Orleans Breakers took their foot off the gas with Kyle Sloter ($11,000). Sloter played 92% of the snaps in Week 6 and 73% in Week 7. Playing a tight game against the Panthers, moving to Zach Smith ($6,200) at any point looked like a questionable decision. As a quarterback, Sloter has completed 58% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt. The big issue with Sloter’s game has been the seven interceptions. Smith hasn’t really provided a spark when entering the game, so Sloter should continue to play a majority, if not all of the snaps moving forward. Unfortunately, Sloter offers little mobility, making him dependent on elevated pass attempts. With the recent split Sloter remains dicey for DFS, but his offense continues to propel him to success. For what it’s worth, Birmingham has played excellent pass defense, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt into their coverage (5.54).

The New Orleans Breakers’ backfield has ebbed and flowed the last few weeks, but it appears to have settled into a committee featuring Jordan Ellis ($9,200) and Anthony Jones ($4,800). Ellis played on 55% of the snaps and participated in 55% of the routes, while Jones played on 45% of the snaps and participated in 30% of the routes. Despite the reduced playing time, Jones carries 11 times for 34 yards. Ellis proved more efficient with 42 yards on seven carries. Both players saw three targets in the pass game. On paper, this looks like a 50/50 split moving forward with perhaps a slight edge to Ellis overall. It should be noted that Jones’ initial emergence coincided with an Ellis injury, so it appears that Ellis simply reclaimed his position. Overall, the Stallions play solid defense, but they’re far weaker on the ground, allowing 4.22 yards per rush attempt. Ellis remains incredibly expensive for his role, but both backs can be used in GPPs.

At receiver, New Orleans made a slight shift in their top three, elevating Shawn Poindexter ($6,600) over Taywan Taylor ($5,300). Poindexter had battled injury prior to this point, but a 97% snap share in Week 7 provided a shock to the entire DFS community. Poindexter led the team with seven targets, but only managed to snag three of them for 37 scoreless yards. Behind him, Jonathan Adams ($7,000) and Johnnie Dixon ($8,800) maintained their roles with a 91% and 85% route share. Adams turned five targets into two catches, 18 yards and a touchdown. Likewise, Dixon managed three catches for 44 yards on four targets. Now the clear WR4, Taylor caught both of his targets for 20 yards. Taylor did fumble twice in this game, perhaps contributing to his benching. Either way, Poindexter played well enough to have a role moving forward. At the tight end position, Sal Cannella ($4,900) continues to have one of the better roles in the USFL. Cannella participated in 85% of the routes, catching four of five targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. Overall, the volume has remained spread in this offense, making Cannella and Adams some of the better price-adjusted DFS plays in recent weeks. Poindexter now appears to occupy that role as well, as long as his routes remain consistent.

Birmingham Stallions

Mentioned above, the Stallions have the only 7-0 record in the USFL. Outscoring opponents 188-125, the Stallions have won through a strong defense and balanced offense. On the year, the Stallions rank fourth in pace and sixth in pass rate (48.4%). The Stallions remain 3-point favorites here, giving them the fourth highest implied team total on the slate (23.5). It should be noted, the Stallions already defeated the Breakers 22-13 this year, but the game remained within a touchdown until the waning minutes of the fourth quarter.

The Birmingham Stallions gave J’Mar Smith ($10,600) 100% of the snaps at quarterback, while letting Alex McGough ($7,200) play 25% of the snaps at wide receiver. Still, McGough figured out a way to negatively affect Smith by tipping an on-target pass right into a defender’s hands for Smith’s only interception on the day. Still, Smith did not play well regardless, completing nine of 24 passes for 138 scoreless yards and the aforementioned interception. Smith added nine yards on five rush attempts, but the inefficiency persisted. The offense’s insistence on getting McGough the ball remains frustrating, but Smith has now completed only 52.5% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. Still slightly better than McGough, Smith offers the team the best chance to win. For DFS, Smith still remains volatile due to Birmingham’s erratic usage of McGough. The New Orleans Breakers also have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt into their coverage (5.51). However, last week’s 100% snap share add confidence for those interested in using Smith in GPPs.

Even with a healthy C.J. Marable ($8,100) returning to the lineup, Birmingham fully committed to Bo Scarbrough ($7,000) as their lead back. Scarbrough played on 86% of the snaps and participated in 57% of the routes. For reference, Tony Brooks-James ($5,600) and Marable each saw 16% of the snaps. It should be noted that Marable still may not have been 100% after missing Week 6. Either way, Scarbrough appears to have played well enough to hold onto his feature back role. On his massive opportunity share, Scarbrough carried 27 times for a semi-efficient 100 yards. He also caught his only target. Unfortunately for DFSers, Scarbrough found himself vultured twice. One of these occurred on a fake punt from tight end/fullback Bobby Holly ($3,500), who now has one carry all season. For now, Scarbrough looks to have one of the better roles moving forward in the USFL. The Breakers allow the second fewest rushing yards per attempt (3.87), but Scarbrough’s affordable price keeps him very much in play for DFS this week.

The Birmingham Stallions have struggled to evaluate their player personnel all season, making it that more impressive they’ve won every game. On top of McGough’s cameo at receiver, the Stallions effectively benched WR1 Victor Bolden ($10,800). Bolden made an excellent over the should catch in quarter one, but he went on to play a disappointing 32% of the routes. Ultimately, this ended up being Bolden’s only catch on three targets. With Bolden benched and Marlon Williams ($5,200) inactive due to injury, Osirus Mitchell ($9,500) and Michael Dereus ($3,600) operated as the WR1 and WR2. Mitchell and Dereus participated in 96% and 93% of the routes, recording five and four targets apiece. Jeff Thomas ($4,600) split time with Bolden participating in 29% of the routes. Thomas saw four targets himself but failed to catch any of them. He even dropped a would-be touchdown, providing yet another reason to return to Bolden as a full-time player. At tight end, Cary Angeline ($5,100) and Sage Surratt ($2,500) have devolved into a timeshare, with each seeing a 46% and 43% route share, respectively. An increasingly volatile team with a playoff berth locked up, Mitchell and Williams (if active) remain the best DFS plays. Bolden still leads the USFL in targets, but he simply can’t be trusted at this price if he’s going to play 27% of the snaps again. Dereus can also be used as the volatile replacement for Bolden, in case his 93% route rate continues.

Michigan vs Philadelphia USFL DFS Picks

Michigan Panthers

One of three teams with a salty 1-6 record, the Michigan Panthers have only been outscored 144-131 this year. While eliminated from the playoffs, the Panthers continue to play exciting games. On the year, the Panthers rank second in tempo and seventh in pass rate (47.8%). This week, they face the Philadelphia Stars as 5.5-point underdogs in a game with a 47.5-point total. Implied for 21 points, the Panthers have the fifth-highest implied team total alongside the New Orleans Breakers.

With plenty of movement in the quarterback room last week, Josh Love ($7,400) ultimately started and played every snap for Michigan. Again, Michigan cut Shea Patterson ($8,900), leading to the switch. Additionally, the Panthers moved Paxton Lynch ($7,300) to the active roster after battling an ankle injury, but he did not see the field. Love played average in his return to action, completing 18 of 37 passes for 179 scoreless yards. On the year, Love has completed 52.3% of his passes for 5.6 yards per attempt. The former Mauler’s signal caller did add 16 yards on four carries, but Lynch likely takes over most of that role when finally healthy. Like many other teams, the Panthers quarterback situation remains volatile on a weekly basis. Love tentatively looks like the starter, but a healthy Lynch could change that as soon as next week. Philadelphia remains the worst defense in the USFL and allows the second-most yards per pass attempt (6.90).

The Michigan Panthers arguably have the best running back in the USFL in Reggie Corbin ($6,300). However, Jeff Fisher insists on using Corbin in a foolish timeshare also involving Stevie Scott ($6,000) and Cameron Scarlett ($4,200). Last week, Corbin played on 42% of the snaps, while Scott and Scarlett each logged 36% and 22%. As expected, Corbin ran laps around his teammates, finishing with 108 yards on 13 carries. For the sake of comparison, Scott slammed into the back of his offensive line 11 times for a pathetic 25 yards. Even worse, Scarlett and Scott each vultured Corbin on the goal line. For this week, Corbin still holds a backfield edge and benefits from a matchup against a league-worst Stars’ run defense that allows 4.85 yards per carry.

At receiver, Lance Lenoir ($9,000) continues to dominate opportunities in the Michigan pass game. Lenoir participated in a team high 83% of routes, catching three of seven targets for 47 yards. Overall, Lenoir’s 59 targets (28.1% target share) rank second in the USFL. Michigan had previously used Devin Ross ($3,800) as their clear WR2, but his route participation fell to 63%. This coincided with just four targets, his lowest number since Week 2. Joe Walker ($3,900) stepped up to see a 68% route share and record a team high nine targets. He only managed to catch four of them for 32 yards, but Walker has now seen eight and nine targets in back-to-back weeks. Whoever holds the WR2 role matters because Michigan runs a moronic tight end-focused offense. Four tight ends made their way onto the field, including Marcus Baugh ($2,500), Connor Davis ($2,500), La’Michael Pettway ($2,700) and Ryan O’Malley ($2,800). In total, Baugh (51% of routes), Davis (37%), Pettway (63%) and O’Malley (15%) reduced the available routes for receivers more than they contributed to the pass game themselves. Outside of Lenoir and Walker, this pass game remains difficult to trust even in a solid matchup.

Philadelphia Stars

Holding a 4-3 record, the Philadelphia Stars have been outscored by their opponents 177-176. However, the Stars would need to lose all three of their next games to even have a shot at missing the playoffs. As a team, they rank seventh in pace of play, but pass at the highest rate in the USFL (61.4%). That pass rate has fallen in recent weeks. Over their last two games, the Stars have only thrown the ball 46% of the time. This has coincided with back-to-back wins. Now facing the Panthers, the Stars hold a 5.5-point advantage, giving them a slate-leading 26.5 implied team total.

Case Cookus ($9,300) continued to function as the full-time starter in Philadelphia, completing 21 of 31 passes for 163 yards, a touchdown and a pair of interceptions. On the year, Cookus holds a 63.2% completion percentage for 5.8 yards per attempt. Even with some of the better statistical marks in the USFL, Philadelphia has embraced a run first approach of late. Cookus handles between two-four carries per game, making him somewhat reliant on the added volume from a pass heavy offense. However, so many teams in the USFL use timeshares at quarterback, that Cookus’ 100% snap share still makes him among the safest and highest projected quarterbacks on the slate.

At running back, Matt Colburn ($6,100) continued to dominate snaps and opportunities over Darnell Holland ($6,900). Overall, Colburn played on 76% of the snaps and 66% of routes, while Holland handled 24% of snaps and 16% of routes. This led to Colburn carrying 21 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, while reeling in four of seven targets for another 14 yards. However, Hollard showed plenty of juice himself. Holland carried seven times for 49 yards and a touchdown, while notching a single reception for another seven yards. While last week’s performances came against the pitiful Houston defense, the Michigan Panthers allow the second-most yards per rush attempt in the entire USFL (4.28). With Paul Terry ($5,000) remaining on the inactive roster, Colburn looks plenty viable here, with Holland also available for contrarian GPP builds.

At receiver, Philadelphia has quickly discovered their top three options with Diondre Overton ($5,700) injured. Jordan Suell ($7,700) continues to function as the alpha with a 94% route rate and a team-leading seven targets. Better yet, Suell caught all seven for 72 yards and a touchdown last week. Devin Gray ($7,400) also participated in 97% of routes and saw six targets. Maurice Alexander ($3,700) rounded out three receiver sets with a 94% route rate, but he only saw one target in the pass game. “Tight end” Bug Howard ($4,800) also remains heavily involved. Howard only caught two of four targets for nine yards last week, but he participated in 84% of the routes for Philadelphia. Chris Rowland ($3,500) also popped up for five targets, but Rowland only participated in 31% of the routes, making him a distant fifth option in the pass game for now. When adjusting for salary, it remains hard to ignore Howard and Alexander at their prices. The two look like some of the better cheaper options on this slate. Conversely, Gray and Suell provide more security and provide stacking options with Cookus.

Houston vs Tampa Bay USFL DFS Picks

Houston Gamblers

Another 1-6 team, the Houston Gamblers have been outscored 156-177 this year. The Gamblers run the slowest offense in the league, averaging just 48.7 plays per game. They also rank fifth in pass rate (49.6%), leading to an overall inefficient offense. This week, the Gamblers sit as 5-point underdogs to the Bandits in a game with a 44.5-point total. Implied for 19.75 points, the Gamblers project for the seventh-most points scored on this slate.

Clayton Thorson ($9,400) started the game for Houston, but he only played 55% of the snaps before exiting with an elbow injury. Presumed to be injured, Kenji Bahar ($6,100) entered the game for a hurt Thorson and played the other 45% of snaps. On the day, Bahar proved to be the more efficient passer, completing 10 of 13 passes for 101 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Thorson himself played one of his better games, completing 8 of 12 passes for 70 yards. Regardless, the team moved Thorson to the inactive list, meaning Bahar should draw the start here. Neither quarterback runs much, but Tampa Bay allows the third-most yards per pass attempt to opposing signal callers (6.76). Bahar should play at least as well as Thorson, giving him plenty of GPP viability.

Previously one of the work horses in the USFL, Mark Thompson ($8,500) only played on 59% of the snaps and 31% of the routes last week. Even worse, he carried just 13 times in a game where Houston shot out to an early lead. Thompson’s reduction in playing time coincided with Houston activating three backs for game day. Dalyn Dawkins ($3,400) and Devwah Whaley ($3,000) played 29% and 12% of the snaps respectively, handling five carries combined. While that may not seem like much, it reduced Thompson’s role enough to make him difficult to trust moving forward. There are simply better price adjusted backs than Thompson at this point.

Houston receivers have unfortunately suffered from brutal quarterback play all season. Isaiah Zuber ($10,400) functions as the top receiver, logging a 94% route share and four targets last week. He leads the team with a 20.4% target share. Behind him, Anthony Ratliff-Williams ($4,400) has a 17.4% target share and participated in 78% of the routes a week ago. His five targets led the team. Teo Redding ($4,800) has also worked into a full-time role, seeing four targets last week and handling an 81% route share. Redding has missed multiple games already this year, but his increased routes seem to be a consistent trend. From there, Tyler Palka ($3,200) and JoJo Ward ($6,400) participated in 66% and 25% of the team’s routes, respectively. Ward previously played a much larger role but appears to have lost it. Still, both Palka and Ward finished with two targets. It should be noted that Houston uses the tight end position a little less than other teams. Julian Allen ($2,500) and Brandon Barnes ($2,500) participated in 31% and 25% of the routes, while seeing three targets each. With the poor quarterback play here, Zuber is simply too expensive to target outside of large GPPs. The other pass catchers have been volatile, making this a tough situation to target altogether.

Tampa Bay Bandits

Fighting for a playoff berth with the New Orleans Breakers, the Tampa Bay Bandits hold a 3-4 record. Like their record implies, the Bandits have been outscored 154-125 this season. Under former Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley, the Bandits rank sixth in pace and third in pass rate (53.7%). This week, the Bandits’ 24.75 implied team total ranks third on the slate behind only Philadelphia and New Jersey. After a tight loss to the Generals last this, the Gamblers should offer a solid bounce back spot for the Bandits here.

A week after throwing for 333 yards, Jordan Ta’amu ($11,200) busted as complete chalk in Week 7. Ta’amu completed only 17 of 37 passes for 237 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. With that said, Ta’amu still had the best volume on the slate behind those 37 pass attempt. Improving matters further, Ta’amu also carried the ball seven times as a rusher. Unfortunately, he only managed 18 yards on the ground, but that volume remains incredible for the USFL. Now, he faces a bottom two defense in the Houston Gamblers, who allow the most yards per pass attempt into their coverage (7.04). While expensive, this looks like a solid time to return to Ta’amu.

With a healthy B.J. Emmons ($8,800) back in the picture, Tampa Bay has returned to a timeshare. Still, Juwan Washington ($4,900) continues to lead this time share after playing 62% of the snaps and handling 60% of the routes last week. Even on the elevated playing time, he only out-touched Emmons 10-9. Emmons himself played on 41% of the snaps and received 35% of the routes. This backfield has been tough to trust all year, but they draw a solid matchup against a soft Houston defense here. With Washington coming in cheaper, the scatback looks like the optimal target of the two here.

At receiver, Tampa Bay uses one of the nastiest rotations in the league. Derrick Dillon ($4,500) and John Franklin ($4,300) led the team with a 79% and 74% route share over the last two games. Franklin led the team with six targets, but he only managed to secure one of them for 20 yards and a touchdown. Dillon also only caught one of five targets for 15 yards. The WR3 last week was Vinny Papale ($3,300), who had the best game. He snagged four of six targets for 68 scoreless yards on just a 58% route share. From there, Rashard Davis ($5,900), Keith Mumphery ($3,100) and Derrick Willies ($3,000) all played between 21% and 35% of the routes. At tight end, Cheyenne O’Grady ($4,400) slightly separated from De’Quan Hampton ($2,600). O’Grady participated in 51% of the routes, while Hampton participated in 35%. This still only amounted to three targets for O’Grady, making him just as volatile as the rest of the group. Overall, Franklin and Dillon remain the two players to target in this passing attack.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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