Best Ball season is currently on its final month with Puppy 3 currently ongoing and Best Ball Mania 3 nearly halfway filled up. Stokastic wants to assist in winning the grand prizes by keeping fantasy gamers up to date with Best Ball rankings and draft guides. That is a collective $12 million dollars in prizes currently up for grabs. If drafting multiple teams hopefully its multiple pieces. One of the best ways to get that piece is through drafting wide-receivers and preferably buying the right amount of upside at the right price. Listed below are some wide receivers that Stokastic projects as going a bit too high and are likely to bust at current ADP.
Best Ball Fantasy Bust Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (Underdog ADP: 28 – WR13)
One of the better breakouts of in 2021 was second year receiver Michael Pittman Jr. He has a solid outing and breaches the 1,000-yard march with a solid PPR outing of 88 catches. This is a solid best of both worlds, and he is receiving a new quarterback in veteran Matt Ryan. This is all looking really good on paper. But at the same time does this mean that Pittman is a borderline WR1 on the season due to these changes? Stokastic doesn’t believe it does.
Stokastic likes Pittman but Stokastic’s rankings have him closer to the middle of the WR2 and it’s for good reason. Pittman had a lot swing in his favor in the 2021 season that helped him finished as high as he did. First being that Pittman had no competition for targets. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton missed multiple games and was a shell of his former self. Follow that up with fellow second round pick Parris Campbell once again missing another season. The Colts were left with Zach Pascal and Ashton Dulin both wide receivers were unable to breach 400 years on the season. This meant that Pittman was the only effective wide receiver on the team. No other team in the NFL had only one wide receiver break 400 yards receiving. With Campbell’s return, along with the addition of Alec Pierce, Pittman’s path to targets could be hampered.
Pittman’s role in the Colt’s offense is limiting in comparison to other team’s wide receivers. Pittman mostly lines up on the outside and runs the majority of his routes on one side of the field. Receivers who line up in multiple places of the field along while having a diverse route tree generally have more upside. Limiting their role in the offense will limit their production, Pittman’s route diversity dwindled as the season went on this could be a toll on Wentz but it’s probably due to what the coaching envisioned for Pittman. The combination of all these items along with chemistry rebuild for Pittman with Ryan, there are better prices for upside plays.
Gabriel Davis, Bills (Underdog ADP: 43 – WR21)
One of the biggest risers of the offseason has been wide receiver Gabriel Davis. Davis had one explosive playoff game and now is being drafted with the likes of other top end wide receivers such as D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson. All three of these players are ranked over Davis. Beyond the fact that Davis had the one amazing playoff game, he does have a better path to targets with Emmanuel Sanders no longer on the team. There should be an ADP increase for Davis, but not behind the likes of other established wide receivers.
Davis so far in his career hasn’t had a 1,000-yard season let alone a 600-yard season. In 2021 Davis was going in the tenth rounds of drafts and did not live up to his ADP. He only had six games that went over 10 points and all of the games besides one was a spike week of more than 15 points. Most of his contribution games were at 10 – 12-point range. Outside of his Week 15 big game, Davis was ineffective for nearly the entire season, if not all of it. People are banking on his Week 17 correlation, but if he performs terribly for the majority of the season, fantasy teams that have him will likely not make it to Week 17. That is the risk that comes with taking Davis this high in leu of a more established player.
JuJu Smith Schuster, Chiefs (Underdog ADP: 52 – WR25)
One of the bigger off-season moves was Smith-Schuster Smith Schuster joining up with the Kansas City Chiefs. Stokastic’s Best Ball ranks for Smith-Schuster is a bit divided but the majority of the rankings have him as a hard pass at his current ADP. Although it’s a good football move but for fantasy purposes especially in half PPR Best Ball there is quite a bit to think about.
In addition to Smith-Schuster joining the Chiefs, there are Marquez Valdez-Scantling and second-round pick Skyy Moore. Both wide receivers who fill a specific role of being further down the field. In comparison to Smith-Schuster short to intermediate routes. He will also be competing for targets against the likes of Travis Kelce the number one tight end in the league and longtime teammate of Patrick Mahomes. Therefore the path of targets for Smith-Schuster is a bit concerning as he will have to compete with many other prospects and Smith-Schuster isn’t the clear best talent on the team.
Smith-Schuster has only breached 1,000 yards once in his five-year career. But like with the issue of Davis, Smith-Schuster is being taken at the same range of players who have broken 1,000 yards consistently and earlier than players who have a better chance of it. In the event Smith-Schuster does break 1,000 yards this season, does he retain his target hog role of short yardage? If he does, then he might never contribute to Best Ball teams outside of the games he gets a touchdown. If Smith-Schuster averages a 1,000-yard pace in a 17-game span, then he would be averaging 60 yards a game. In real life and in regular redraft this isn’t bad and if he does it at the pace of 100 receptions. He would average approximately six catches for 60 yards a game, this would mean Smith-Schuster is getting nine fantasy points a week. The general threshold for receivers to contribute points is 10 points or more. This means on average he is contributing 0 points unless he gets a touchdown.
Smith-Schuster is a fine player, but as of right now he has the Mahomes pricing baked into him, and it’s putting him out of drafting range.
Garrett Wilson, Jets (Underdog ADP: 111 – WR52)
The New York Jets are doing their best to not repeat history with what happened with Sam Darnold by providing Zach Wilson a set of offensive weapons. Last year it was Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and Michael Carter. This year it is two rookie weapons in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and free agent tight end C.J. Uzomah. That is a lot of pieces brought in to assist Zach Wilson, who is now coming into his second year.
Garrett Wilson has potential to be fantasy relevant, but at the same time, the path to targets is not favorable right now, especially since camp news has broken in favor of Moore. Depth chart prediction has shown that Davis will likely be the WR2 for the team as he is a veteran player and has the big money contract to go with it. This means that Wilson could be a year early. Not every rookie wide receiver has to blow up in their first year; sometimes they get stuck playing behind others, and this is looking to be the case.
At best, Wilson might begin to take off towards the end of season, but at his current price, this is too early to go in on him — especially if the competition is stiff. Just a reminder: This is the same franchise that has second-round pick Denzel Mims in football purgatory.
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