MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Plenty of the misfortune can be attributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play, along with a 68.3% left-on-base rate. These figures are among his worst outcomes since his rookie season with the White Sox. Cease did not allow a home run in his last three starts, including a game in Coors Field, and it also looks like his walks are trending back down to a palatable level.
The projected Chicago lineup has just three hitters striking out above 24% against right-handed pitching this season. Losing Luis Robert Jr. (hamstring) has taken the most fearsome hitter out of the lineup, and youngsters Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero have struggled against right-handed hurlers this season. Over the last month, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery and Andrew Benintendi were the only players with positive production against righties.
While LHP Tarik Skubal (-10000) has all but locked up his second consecutive American League Cy Young Award, fellow southpaw Garrett Crochet (+1000) is the likely runner-up, well ahead of RHPs Hunter Brown (+7500) and Bryan Woo (+10000).
Crochet is second with 16 wins on the season, as well as 191.1 innings. He leads the league with 240 strikeouts, and only Cease having a better strikeout ratio (11.5 per nine compared to 11.3 for the lefty). The 26-year-old is fifth with a 2.63 ERA and 10th with a 1.052 WHIP.
Not having Jonathan Aranda (wrist) weakens the Tampa lineup, and Junior Caminero (back) was held out on Wednesday. The Rays also set up better against right-handed pitching since key hitters such as Brandon Lowe, rookie speedster Chandler Simpson and outfielder Josh Lowe struggle in lefty-lefty matchups.
Woo and Brown are alternative options, with the duo facing off in Houston tonight as the Astros and Mariners battle for the American League West lead. Seattle and the ‘Stros put out top offensive lineups, which is why Crochet is the featured recommendation.
The tougher matchups do impact the salaries, of course; Woo has slight discounts of $500, $200 and $5 on FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo, while Brown is $600, $1,000 and $8 cheaper.
In New York, RHP Brandon Sproat and the Mets are hosting the Washington Nationals with a 3.6 implied team total. The rookie will be making his third start in The Show, and the top of the Washington order is good against righties, but he does provide salary relief as an SP2 on DraftKings ($7,800). On Yahoo, RHP Luis Severino ($32) is in Pittsburgh profiling as the best fantasy point-per-dollar option for the expanded player pool of the “secret site.”
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Chase Field roof will be closed this series, but the humidor is unlikely to provide enough relief to save RHPs Taijuan Walker and Walker Buehler. The Red Sox waived Buehler at the end of August as they are in the thick of the Wild Card hunt. Philadelphia signed him to a minor league deal after the 48-hour waiting period, desperate to find someone to eat innings at the back of the rotation with Aaron Nola just returning from injury and Zach Wheeler on the shelf.
Taijuan Buehler (let’s have some fun with a portmanteau) struggles mightily against right-handed power, and lefties are not too far behind. This bodes well for Corbin Carroll, along with switch-hitters Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte at the top of the order. Right-handed Gabriel Moreno is a strong catcher option on DraftKings and Yahoo. He is the cleanup hitter, so do not skip him on FanDuel. Infielder Blaze Alexander is also in the mix as he will likely be in the five-hole tonight and he has shown above-average pop when he actually connects.
Philadelphia has clinched the National League East division title, and the Phillies are three games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in the league. If both Walker and Buehler fail, the well-rested bullpen can be called upon, though that would likely mean that the Diamondbacks have already put up half a dozen runs.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: New York Mets
The focus for this recommendation is Pete Alonso and Juan Soto, with third baseman Mark Vientos likely hitting in the heart of the order while also providing significant salary savings across the main MLB DFS platforms. Leadoff man and maestro with the bat Francisco Lindor has been uncharacteristically weak on the power front when swinging the stick from the right side of the plate, posting .300 wOBA and a .124 ISO as compared to last year’s .375 wOBA and .282 ISO. He is also expensive, so skipping him is not a bad idea.
Washington has a dreadful bullpen, as the current collection of relievers ranks in the bottom 3 at a 112 ERA-, a 4.74 ERA and a 4.73 FIP. The Mets are holding on to the final wild card spot, with Cincinnati and Arizona two games back and San Francisco trailing by three. New York is four games behind San Diego, so the team is unlikely to take the foot off the gas down the stretch as every win is paramount.
For those seeking discount dandies to facilitate rostering top pitchers and hitters participating in the Coors Field Extravaganza, look to the Texas Rangers in Miami against RHP Janson Junk. Josh Smith, Joc Pederson and Rowdy Tellez are the trio to target at the top of the order, though keep in mind that Pederson and Tellez are particularly cheap since they usually are pulled for pinch-hitters when a lefty comes in from the pen. The Marlins have two southpaw relievers, both of whom have not pitched in five days, so expect manager Clayton McCullough to call on at least one of them tonight.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Taijuan Walker to allow less than five hits tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
In his three September starts, Walker averaged five innings and 7.33 hits. However, the difference for tonight is that Buehler has already been announced as a likely long reliever, which means manager Rob Thomson is likely to have a quicker hook at the first sign of trouble. This, of course, is factored into the numbers and odds, but it is a key callout as it puts under 5.5 hits into better perspective for those just quickly scanning game logs.
