NASCAR

Big Machine Vodka 400 Cheat Sheet and Projections

Published

4 years ago

September 8, 2018

If you’d like a preview of this race, feel free to check out my recap (in the NASCAR section) of this event going back the past few seasons and especially last year’s wreck-fest that took six hours to complete. In that article, I highlighted what are the two preferred ways to build lineups this weekend and thanks to a rained out qualifying session the 1 Hog + 1 semi-Hog method seems to fit nicer than going straight for place differential. However, the conditions that made last year’s event a wreck-filled event are just as ripe today with everything being on the line for a shot to make the playoffs. Add in a green track and possible stoppages for further rain on Sunday afternoon into evening and you have what may be fun for the average NASCAR fan to watch but tough for us as DFS players to tilt through. After just eighty laps, rain may cause NASCAR to pull the plug (remember Indy does not have lights so they can’t just extend this event into the evening) and with the Xfinity race already moved to Monday there’s no doubt NASCAR would like to see the series and it’s race teams headed to Las Vegas as soon as possible.

Name	$	St	Fn	Analysis
Kyle Busch	11700	1	1	The last time Kyle sat on the pole at Indy he led 149 laps en route to victory. Things will be a bit tougher with Harvick startiing beside him but being on the pole gives Kyle a decided advantage and we know his flat long course form is good this year with a win at Pocono earlier in the Summer.
Kevin Harvick	12200	2	2	While rostering both Kyle and Kevin might make things a little tight, it's the easiest path to figuring out which two drivers lead the most combined laps on Sunday. At the corollary track Pocono, Harvick led 119 laps combined this season with two top-five finishes.
Kyle Larson	11300	7	3
Kurt Busch	8800	4	4
Martin Truex Jr	10100	3	5
Joey Logano	8600	5	6	With attention turned to just one or two Hogs this week it means our third driver can be a finishing position and Joey makes a great pick there with his field best average finish of 4.3 at Indy since 2015.
Ryan Blaney	9500	9	7
Denny Hamlin	10600	10	8
Erik Jones	8400	13	9	If you like consistency, Jones has been riding it the past few weeks with eight top ten finishes in his past nine races.
Chase Elliott	9200	11	10
Ryan Newman	7200	17	11	On the outside looking in of the playoffs and he needs a win to steal that final spot away from Alex Bowman. This is probably more a gut call than anything else but I foresee the 31 team making a late call to get Ryan up front but it falls short.
Daniel Suarez	7500	20	12	Somehow in last year's wreckfest, Suarez managed to keep his nose clean and finish 7th. Undoubtedly he benefited from several cautions with an average running position of 16th, however, even if he doesn't bring the #19 home into the top-ten he should be a good bet to gain place differential.
Jimmie Johnson	8200	14	13
Brad Keselowski	9800	6	14
Matt Kenseth	7000	29	15	It may take some pit road strategy to see Kenseth finish this high but even if he doesn't pull some hijinx he has the skill here to nagivate the little car that couldn't from 29th into the teens. In both Pocono races this year, Kenseth drove the #6 into the teens and should be able to replicate that here at a track he had an average finish of 4.7 since 2015.
William Byron	6800	22	16
Austin Dillon	7100	18	17
Jamie McMurray	7900	21	18
Clint Bowyer	9000	8	19
Aric Almirola	8000	12	20
Paul Menard	6700	19	21
Chris Buescher	6500	23	22	If Sunday's race is the wreck fest that it could very well be, Buescher is a name to keep an eye on. Although his finishing projection isn't that great, he does own an average of 11.5 in two races (this in spite of an average running position of 23rd) which speaks to his ability to maneuver around these late race wrecks. If we stay green, he's probably a bad pick but if we have several late race cautions then Buescher is probably a great pick.
Alex Bowman	7700	15	23
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	7300	16	24
David Ragan	5500	25	25	If you're into cheap drivers with momentum, then you're focus should be on David Ragan who has top-20 finishes of 5 of his last 7 races. He has DNF's here in 2 of his last 3 Indy races, but in both Pocono races this season his average finish was 17.5.
Ty Dillon	6300	30	26	Ty saw a significant price bump this weekend thanks to his 19th place finish last season but his 30th starting spot makes up for the jump. His average finish in both Pocono races this season was 23.5.
Michael McDowell	5700	26	27
AJ Allmendinger	6100	24	28
Ross Chastain	5300	32	29
Bubba Wallace	5900	28	30
Landon Cassill	5200	34	31
Matt DiBenedetto	5400	31	32
Jeffrey Earnhardt	4900	37	33
Reed Sorenson	5000	38	34
JJ Yeley	4800	35	35
Timmy Hill	4600	39	37
Corey LaJoie	5100	33	38
David Starr	4400	36	39
BJ McLeod	4700	40	40

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Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is a father, husband, and Catholic as well as a self-professed annoying fitness guy. Phill heads up NASCAR content at Awesemo.com. You can contact Phill by emailing [email protected].