Monday Night Football puts a cap on the Week 7 action, with the San Francisco 49ers coming off a tough loss in Cleveland and on the road again in Minnesota against the Vikings. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our 49ers-Vikings DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these 49ers-Vikings DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: 49ers-Vikings DFS Picks
San Francisco 49ers: 25.25 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Brock Purdy as the QB9 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Of course, there are still six teams on bye, and Purdy was just handed his first regular season loss as a starter shortly after being anointed the odds-on favorite for NFL MVP. As an aside, the futures market for player awards is absolutely bonkers in all of the sports if you are looking to be a speculative prognosticator.
Back to Purdy. He has been solid, though he now has a couple of his primo skill-position players dinged up. It will be interesting to see how coach Kyle Shanahan reworks the offense, but at least it is against a less-than-stellar defense. Minnesota ranks 14th in rushing DVOA and 21st against the pass. The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to author three multi-passing touchdown efforts, and Jalen Hurts had one aerial score and two more on the ground.
Even with 15 regular season starts under his belt, Purdy has been remarkably consistent in both campaigns, with just over a 67% completion rate and 8.3 yards per attempt. Most impressive is that he has five interceptions, with only one so far this season. The youngster moves well in the pocket, but he rarely breaks containment, with only 44 yards on 31 carries, along with a trio of touchdowns, including two this season.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (oblique) was injured last week, missing around half of the game. While he only was able to practice in a limited capacity on Saturday, it sounds like the plan is for him to play. If he were fully healthy, he would easily be the best option in the player pool. There is not much analysis to add about the generational talent that would be new for DFS gamers. Word is that he felt good in practice, though as demonstrated week in and week out, we cannot implicitly trust information provided by players or coaches. Realistic expectations would be for coach Shanahan to have a quick hook for McCaffrey if either team takes a commanding lead.
Eli Mitchell is the definition of fragile, but when he is ambulatory, he has been a solid contributor. In his 19 games, 11 as a starter, he has averaged 4.8 yards per carry and has brought in 25 of 28 targets, albeit for a pedestrian 146 yards and one touchdown.
Second-year back Jordan Mason has even less work in the passing game, with only two targets in his 22 career appearances, though he has 64 carries for 375 yards, three touchdowns and a stellar 5.9 yards per carry. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk had one target last week for a 9-yard reception. This year he has nine total touches, and he caught his lone touchdown in Week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel is out with a hairline fracture in his left shoulder, suffered in Cleveland last weekend. The standard timetable for this type of injury is 4 to 6 weeks, so we should know more in three weeks after the 49ers have their bye. Samuel was on the field for only nine plays before going down, so we can sort of infer how things may shake out Monday night.
Brandon Aiyuk was on the field for a season-high 98% of the snaps, about 20% more than what he had seen in the prior two weeks. He also had 10 targets and now leads the team with 37, overtaking Samuel. Aiyuk has had stellar production, with 25 receptions and 454 yards, which works out to an absurd 18.2 yards per catch. Clearly that is not sustainable, but on a game-to-game basis, it is not out of the question that he can carry that upside. After all, for his career, he has 13.9 yards per catch and is outstanding after the ball is in his hands.
Jauan Jennings had a noticeable uptick in playing time last week, though it was veteran Ray-Ray McCloud III who had the largest increase. Of course, being on the field does not guarantee targets, but it is the first hurdle to clear. Jennings had four looks last week, which is a reasonable baseline against Minnesota as well. McCloud had just two targets, giving him five for the season. However, he also had his first two carries of the year, so we could see the team look to get the ball in his hands on reverses or jet sweeps. It is highly unlikely that he will line up as a running back in the same fashion as Samuel. He should still have his return duties on top of added offensive opportunities.
Rookie Ronnie Bell was on the field for only one offensive play, which was a season low. That should change tonight, and it should be considered a disappointment if he doesn’t have a target or two. Veteran Willie Snead IV will likely be active as the fifth receiver, though his playing time is tenuous at best.
In summary, Aiyuk should approach double-digit targets, and Jennings is the best fantasy-point-per-dollar option on DraftKings ($4,000) and FanDuel ($8,000), closely followed by McCloud at $2,200 and $7,000, respectively.
Tight Ends
George Kittle is the wild card, though it would make sense for him to see an increase in his receiving workload. Typically when Samuel is out, Kittle gets close to a 50% boost in production, but that is spread across several seasons and quarterbacks. We just saw Kittle upset the apple cart on Thursday Night Football, scoring a trio of touchdowns on four targets against the Cowboys.
Those are his only touchdowns for the season, but those fortunes are likely to shift while Samuel is out. Kittle has three of the 12 best single-game yardage performances for tight ends, and while logging a fourth is unlikely tonight — as he would need to approach 190 yards — it is a reminder of his potential and track record.
Kittle has 25 of the 26 tight end targets, with veteran Ross Dwelley getting his first look last week. Dwelley and Charlie Woerner will play between a dozen and two dozen snaps most games, but even including all of last year, non-Kittle tight ends have combined for 13 targets.
Defense/Special Teams
Minnesota has allowed 2.5 sacks per game, which is right around league average, along with almost two turnovers per tilt. San Francisco collects turnovers and records sacks at similar rates. The 49ers also lead the league with only 14.5 points allowed per game.
Minnesota Vikings: 18.25 Points
Quarterback
Last Sunday, the Vikings got their second win of the season, knocking off the Bears in Chicago. Kirk Cousins was off to a strong start, but things are faltering without the otherworldly Justin Jefferson commanding the attention of the defense. After starting the season with five consecutive multi-touchdown efforts, Cousins tossed just one against Chicago, along with just 181 yards on 31 attempts. The only game with lower figures was in Carolina against the Panthers, when the Vikings scored 14 unanswered points in the third quarter on the way to a 21-13 victory.
San Francisco has allowed just five aerial scores and has the second-best passing DVOA in the league. Both teams are likely to be content to keep the clock moving, which does not bode well for Cousins getting much more than 30 attempts once again.
Running Backs
The 49ers have ceded just three rushing and one receiving score to opposing running backs. Alexander Mattison has been getting by on volume, but that is not likely to work against this unit. The long-time Viking has 82 carries for 320 yards, with his two touchdowns coming in the receiving game, where he has 28 targets for a below-replacement level 18 catches and 104 yards.
The team brought in Cam Akers as a second option to boost the ground game, but he has played 14, 21 and nine snaps since donning a Minnesota uniform. Ty Chandler has not had an offensive snap in three games and has mostly been phased out. Kene Nwangwu is only getting special teams snaps and is the main kickoff returner. There will be a shakeup at some point, but it may be Minnesota trading their quarterback rather than even bothering to retool the rest of the backfield.
Fullback C.J. Ham had three targets in Week 1, one in Week 4 and nary a look since then. Over 81 career games where he has had an offensive opportunity, he is averaging barely over 1 rushing yard and just shy of one reception for about 6 yards. He could always luck into a red zone touch, but with five career scores, that is a longshot.
Wide Receivers
K.J. Osborn and rookie Jordan Addison are now the main options with Jefferson out. Brandon Powell is coming up on the outside, though he still saw significantly less time on the field than his counterparts. Osborn was already playing north of 90% of the snaps when Jefferson was healthy, so he is not going to be on the field “more,” but he should get additional looks by default. His standard baseline is 4 to 5 targets with the potential upside to bounce off his ceiling of nine, which he had in Jefferson’s final game.
Addison has touchdowns in four of the six games this season, but he has yet to crack 75 receiving yards. The five targets last week feel like a floor with Jefferson out, even against a ravenous defense.
Powell is the real wild card, particularly on DraftKings where his salary cap hit is a fraction of his fellow wideouts. The Stokastic projections have 6.3 targets slated for Powell, with 3.56 catches, 38.3 yards and a 20% chance of finding the end zone.
Powell is far from a prospect, as he first saw action in 2018 in Detroit as a 23-year-old. He was a key receiver but far from a flashy one in his four years at Ole Miss. Though, to his credit, he led the team with 42 receptions as a senior. Minnesota is his sixth franchise, but he did not actually see the field when he was with the Buffalo Bills or the Miami Dolphins throughout the 2021 preseason and early part of the regular season. He has mostly hung around as a special-teamer, with occasional forays into offensive opportunities.
For those who are ready to light money on fire, N’Keal Harry has one offensive snap each of the last two weeks.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson has seen at least eight targets in all but one appearance this season. Minnesota brought him in from Detroit via a trade during last year. He has been a steady presence and focal point of the offense, so it is hard to envision him getting less work with Jefferson out of the mix. Of course, the Niners specialize in shutting down tight ends, with only Zach Ertz (53) exceeding 28 receiving yards and Pat Freiermuth earning the lone touchdown back in Week 1.
To further cement the DFS interest in Hockenson, he has 47 targets through six games, which is impressive, and he was pacing all tight ends heading into Week 7. Josh Oliver has no targets in two games (Weeks 4 and 6), though he has averaged 2.5 in the other four matchups — not bad for someone on the field for around one-third of the plays.
To be fully transparent, it is not sexy and no longer National Tight End Day, but Oliver is someone we have to consider for single-game contests. While his salary is not particularly enticing on FanDuel ($6,500), it is still palatable for those building 20 or more lineups. DraftKings is a far different story, where the third-round pick (by Jacksonville) in the 2019 NFL Draft and subsequent NFL nomad is at the $200 minimum.
In the four games where Oliver had his 10 targets, he produced eight receptions, 64 yards and a tuddie. These are the discount dandies that make single-game strategy intriguing each and every time.
Defense/Special Teams
The Vikings have been solid with three sacks per game, and the 49ers are ceding just shy of two per tilt. Minnesota has a mere six takeaways, which does not bode well considering San Francisco leads the league, suffering only three turnovers.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
49ers-Vikings DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Vikings
- Brandon Aiyuk: Circumstances have him as the top option.
- Christian McCaffrey: Has reached the end zone in every game this season.
- Brock Purdy: Consolidating all of the passing production; less impactful in the multiplier slot than the top 5 position players.
- T.J. Hockenson: Gets the slightest edge over Addison, who is a fine consolation prize if the extra salary is not available.
- Jordan Addison: The rookie has shown flashes of immense upside, but how will he do without Jefferson commanding the attention of opposing defenses?
- George Kittle: Potential slate-breaker.
- Josh Oliver: Makes it all work on DraftKings at the $200 minimum; even if he only gets one or two empty targets, it is worth being over the field for the ability to upgrade other positions.
- Brandon Powell: Another fantasy-point-per-dollar play in a top-heavy player pool. Also returns punts.
- Kirk Cousins: No rushing upside; less than 190 passing yards in two of the last three games.
- Jauan Jennings: Baseline of four targets; half a dozen is readily attainable with a little luck.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Vikings
- Alexander Mattison: Volume gets him right around double-digit fantasy points each game, but in this matchup he is going to need a touchdown to move the needle.
- Greg Joseph: Has distance, but accuracy is lacking, with him converting just 6 of 13 (46.1%) from beyond 50 yards in his last 23 games.
- Jake Moody: Third-round rookie out of Michigan is perfect on 22 PATs, with a strong 10-for-12 on his field goal attempts.
- Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason: Both sites did a good job adjusting the salaries to account for McCaffrey potentially missing this game. Each is in play, though the path to success is mop-up duty or a hot hand if CMC is carrying the load as expected.
- San Francisco D/ST: Not as opportunistic as we would expect; that should course-correct over the remainder of the season.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for 49ers-Vikings
- Ray-Ray McCloud III: Returns punts and kickoffs; should get a couple schemed-looks with Samuels out.
- Minnesota D/ST: Likely to be on the field a lot; it just takes one fortuitous play to pan out.
- Cam Akers: The loyalty to Mattison is going to wane at some point, perhaps tonight.
- Kyle Juszczyk and Ronnie Bell: Viable wild cards for those crafting 50-plus lineups.
- C.J. Ham, Charlie Woerner, Johnny Mundt and Ross Dwelley: They will at least get offensive snaps; opportunities are another story.
- Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler: May get a glimpse of them on special teams.
- N’Keal Harry, Tyrion Davis-Price, Trishton Jackson, Ben Sims and Willie Snead IV: If they beat us, so be it.
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.
