Before the season’s second major (the PGA Championship) next week, the PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson, which will be held at TPC Craig Ranch (par 71, 7,414 yards, bentgrass greens) for the third straight year. K.H. Lee is the two-time defending champion of this event, winning at -25 in 2021 and -26 in 2022. The AT&T Byron Nelson’s field consists of 156 players, and there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut after the first 36 holes. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: The AT&T Byron Nelson
TPC Craig Ranch is one of the easiest tracks on the PGA, and to contend at this birdie fest, golfers need to be in good form with irons and putter. During both of his wins here, Lee collectively finished the event top 15 in both strokes gained on approach and strokes gained putting. This year, hole 12 of TPC Craig Ranch has been converted from a par 5 to a 493-yard par 4, making this course a par 71 rather than the par 72 it was the last two seasons. As a result, six of the 11 par 4’s now land between 450 and 500 yards, making players who are efficient on this specific length of hole strong targets.
Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.
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Seamus Power
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 12th, FanDuel: 3rd
After missing the weekend at the RBC Heritage, Power got back on track at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, finishing 18th while gaining strokes in every major category. For the season, he has eight top-25 finishes in 16 starts, including a win at the Bermuda Championship.
Power will now look to carry this momentum over to TPC Craig Ranch, where he has been stellar, finishing ninth and 17th the last two years. Power ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained at Craig Ranch. He has top-10 upside this week and is a sharp target for GPPs, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Michael Kim
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 52nd, FanDuel: 13th
Kim shined at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, with a solo seventh-place finish. He shot under par in every round, ranked seventh in total birdies and gained strokes in every major category at Quail Hollow, including a season-best 7.5 strokes from tee to green. Kim has now advanced to the weekend in nine of his past 10 starts – including six top-30 finishes – and sits at a career-best No. 157 in the world golf rankings.
Kim finished 67th in his only start at TPC Craig Ranch two years ago, but he should easily outdo this performance in the best form of his career this week. He is an elite target for GPPs, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Eric Cole
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 20th, FanDuel: 70th
After missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, this is an excellent time to buy low on Cole. Stokastic is projecting him for low ownership after this speedbump, and there are many reasons to expect a bounce-back performance from Cole at TPC Craig Ranch. He has made seven of his last 12 cuts, and despite being sent home early from Quail Hollow last week, Cole still gained strokes on approach, marking the eighth time he did so in his last 10 starts. Cole ranks ninth in strokes gained on approach over his last 24 rounds. Furthermore, he is seventh in 450- to 500-yard par-4 efficiency during this time, setting him up perfectly for TPC Craig Ranch.
Cole has advanced to the weekend in his next start following all four of his missed cuts in the new year – including three top-30 finishes. He makes for a great contrarian pick that could be a real difference maker in GPPs this week.
Ryan Palmer
Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 14th
Projected for minimal ownership on both DraftKings or FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections, Palmer is an awesome, cheap option for the Byron Nelson. He is a Texas native and has made the cut at TPC Craig Ranch the last two seasons, most notably with a fifth last year in which he ranked fourth in par-5 efficiency and ninth in strokes gained putting. Palmer now returns to McKinney on the heels of a 35th-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he gained strokes in every major category outside of around the greens.
Looking to build off this showing back in his home state, Palmer is a sneaky bet for a top-20 finish.
