Monday Night Football caps the Week 11 action with a marquee matchup of last year’s Super Bowl as the Philadelphia Eagles head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Eagles-Chiefs DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Eagles-Chiefs DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Eagles-Chiefs DFS Picks
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Jalen Hurts as the QB3 for Week 11 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The dual-threat quarterback is rushing for only 35.1 yards per game, which is his lowest mark of the last three seasons. He does have seven rushing touchdowns, but that too is off of last year’s pace. This is somewhat offset by a career-best 260.8 passing yards per game, and with 15 aerial scores, he is among the league leaders.
The Kansas City defense has done a good job of containing mobile quarterbacks this season, holding Trevor Lawrence (26), Justin Fields (47), Justin Herbert (5) and Russell Wilson (31, 30) to minimal yards and zero rushing touchdowns. Additionally, Kirk Cousins (284) is the only opposing signal-caller to top 260 passing yards.
This should not keep us away from Hurts, but it does demonstrate that tonight is not going to be a walk in the park. Overall, the defense has allowed only 15.9 points per game, courtesy of the third-best passing DVOA.
For the majority of the season, the Philadelphia backfield has been a two-man show, with D’Andre Swift seeing two-thirds of the snaps and Kenneth Gainwell logging the rest. Boston Scott (24 snaps) has been on the field for one offensive play over the last three weeks, while Rashaad Penny (11 snaps), saw two plays last week, which were his first since the second game of the season.
Swift has been getting it done in all facets of the game, ranking fourth on the team with 35 targets, and he has at least 16 carries in four of the last five contests. Gainwell is good for a couple carries and a couple of targets, though he is live in the red zone, with six of his 19 opportunities coming in the last three games. Hurts (56), of course, leads the team and Swift (27) is second, but Gainwell truly is a strong candidate for the optimal lineup, recording rushing scores in two of the last three weeks.
A.J. Brown is averaging just over 10 targets per game, and his 111.7 yards per game is the third highest number in the league, as are his 46 first downs and 18 plays of 20-plus yards. DeVonta Smith is a perfect complement to Brown, and he is second on the team with 60 targets. He is not as dynamic as Brown, but he also has had some bad luck and drops on long passes that have curbed his overall numbers.
Things thin out quickly after this duo, with just 20 targets going to the rest of the wide receivers. Olamide Zaccheaus (12) has at least two targets in five of the last seven games, so at least he has some consistency. Over the last three weeks, veteran Julio Jones has been working in for 15 or so offensive plays, though the 34-year-old has just three targets.
Dallas Goedert is out with a fractured forearm. This is unfortunate, as he has at least five targets in four of his last five games, with 33 total looks in this timeframe. He has been on the field for 89.4% of the snaps this season, which limits the opportunities for the rest of the tight ends.
Jack Stoll plays around one-third of the snaps, though he has just three targets this season and none over the last four games. Albert Okwuegbunam saw his first action of the season, getting on the field for half a dozen plays, with Grant Calcaterra in the concussion protocol. Calcaterra has been practicing, so it looks like this will be the trio stepping into the void created by Goedert’s injury.
DraftKings moved Stoll up to $3.200, though his counterparts are still rock-bottom salaries. On FanDuel, Stoll is $500 above his teammates, who are at the $5,000 blue site minimum.
Philadelphia is averaging three sacks per game and just over one takeaway. Kansas City has allowed a league-low 12 sacks; however, the nearly two turnovers per tilt are somewhat uncharacteristic.
Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career-low 271.3 passing yards per game, and his 5.1% touchdown rate is also setting a new floor. Last year the 28-year-old led the league in passing yards, yards per game, touchdowns and QBR on the way to his second league MVP and, of course, the Super Bowl. This year there has been very little help from his wide receivers, though Mahomes continues to be a wizard and has willed this team to the fifth-best passing DVOA.
Philadelphia is not quite the shutdown unit that we saw last year, but the Eagles have the second-best rushing DVOA, which has pushed teams to take their chances with the 22nd passing DVOA. Three different quarterbacks have throwing for 360-plus yards, including Sam Howell (397) and Dak Prescott (374) the last two weeks. Four different opposing signal-callers have tallied three or more touchdowns, so there is plenty of fantasy upside attainable for Mahomes.
No opposing ball-carriers have run for more than 60 yards against the Eagles this season, and the team is allowing a league-low 66.3 rushing yards per game and just three total touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco will be on the field for around 60% of the snaps, with Jerick McKinnon playing around 25% of the time. Pacheco has a baseline of carries in the mid-teens and a couple targets. McKinnon has three receiving touchdowns, though he is averaging just under two totes per tilt and 2.5 targets.
Because the Chiefs are coming out of a bye and their last game was in Germany, gamers may have missed that Clyde Edwards-Helaire was inactive for Week 9 after getting on the field for just two offensive plays in Week 8. La’Mical Perine was active and on the field for four plays, getting one carry for a yard and one target, which he did not convert. These were his first NFL touches since Week 14 of the 2021 season when he was with the Jets.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Travis Kelce leads the team with 72 targets, 57 receptions, 597 yards and four scores, despite missing the opener. Rookie Rashee Rice also has four touchdowns, and he is second on the team with 41 targets. The rest of the wideouts are a grab bag of dysfunction and disappointment. Skyy “Butterfingers” Moore has three targets in each of the last three games, with Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman Jr. and Marquez Valdes-Scantling getting similar, though less steady opportunities.
Kadarius Toney has one target in each of the three games since Hardman was reacquired from the Jets, so of course he is somehow going to luck into a touchdown tonight. After Kelce and Rice, it is probably tight end Noah Gray who is the next-best point-per-dollar option, with Watson vying for that mantle. Plus, to add a little more uncertainty, Richie James (knee) has been a full practice participant and could be activated from the injured reserve. If James is active, he will likely supplant Hardman as the main kick returner.
None of the flotsam and jetsam is appealing on FanDuel, and it makes more sense to drop down to the Philadelphia tight ends and try to upgrade another roster slot, rather than play whack-a-mole.
Kansas City has 21 sacks over the last five games, with four interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Despite just one touchdown return, this unit has six games with double-digit fantasy points. Hurts is usually good for a couple sacks per game, though he has just one interception in the last three.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Eagles-Chiefs DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Jalen Hurts: Hurts so good.
- Travis Kelce: In play for the multiplier, particularly on FanDuel.
- D’Andre Swift: There is an argument for him to be the cash game (e.g. H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans) captain on DraftKings.
- Jack Stoll, Albert Okwuegbunam and Grant Calcaterra: Salary savers; good luck guessing which one is the most desirable.
- Isiah Pacheco: Stays above the kickers, only if the rain and wind are going to be around during the game window.
- Kansas City D/ST: Favorable salary, underrated unit.
- Rashee Rice: Rookie has continued to develop.
- Harrison Butker: Perfect on the season with 18 field goal attempts and 22 extra points.
- Jake Elliott: Converted 13 of his last 15 from beyond 50 yards.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Chiefs
- DeVonta Smith: Good player, but salary constraints are not in his favor.
- Justin Watson: Intriguing DraftKings option; drop to the top of the lottery section on FanDuel.
- Kenneth Gainwell: Meh, needs something to happen to Swift before he sees more than a handful of touches.
- Olamide Zaccheaus: Hard to see him with more than half a dozen fantasy points from his metronomically consistent two targets per tilt.
- Philadelphia D/ST: Would be at the top of this category if the game were in Philly.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Eagles-Chiefs
- Jerick McKinnon: Expensive and in need of a touchdown to break even.
- Boston Scott: Really long shot; needs one of his backfield mates to suffer an in-game injury.
- La’Mical Perine, Noah Gray, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman Jr and Richie James: May the odds be ever in your favor.
- Britain Covey: Main Philly kick returner, offensive snaps unlikely.
- Kadarius Toney and Julio Jones: Yikes.
- Blake Bell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Rashaad Penny: Double-Yikes!
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
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