MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Can the Luis Castillo Magic Continue?! (July 5)

Saturday sees the main DFS sites diverging with their “main slates” though that means wall-to-wall baseball and everyone coalescing for a six-game docket locking at 7:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Coors Field Extravaganza is the priority target on the featured slate, with the San Francisco Giants not far behind in West Sacramento against the Athletics. Offense is plentiful this afternoon, with the the Boston Red Sox in Washington against the Nationals and the Minnesota Twins hosting the Tampa Bay Rays giving gamers four excellent stacking scenarios. Pitching is a little thin, with Luis Castillo the “best” option tonight and Ranger Suarez grading out well for the afternoon action.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

Turning our attention to the Pacific Northwest, it is going to be favorable weather for pitchers in Seattle. Gamers continue to love offenses in Coors Field, yet do not grant the same bump to pitchers at T-Mobile Park, even though the metrics have it as the most advantageous pitching venue in the league. This has been an interesting season for RHP Luis Castillo, who has a personal-low 7.38 strikeouts per nine innings, which is well below his 9.57 strikeouts per nine earned across his career, albeit with one-third of his innings occurring back when he faced fellow hurlers as hitters. Each of the last two seasons he has a 19.4% combined strikeout rate, so there is a possibility of improvement in actual whiffs.

On Friday, Seattle repelled the Pirates, who had won eight of their last 10 games, blanking Pittsburgh for the first time since Memorial Day. The Bucs have tallied the fourth fewest runs in the league this season and their projected lineup has a sub-.110 ISO this year against right-handed hurlers. Oneil Cruz and catcher Henry Davis are the only hitters who strike out more than league average against righties, though with Castillo’s current form lacking that strikeout upside, suppressing extra-base hits and preventing runs is the recipe for success.

Other options include RHP Logan Webb, who should be able to survive home-happy Sutter Health Park with his proclivity for inducing ground balls (56.3% across last 1,303 batters faced). For the Pirates, RHP Mike Burrows will have the same environmental benefits as Castillo, which should help him hide his power issues.

Though the Reds are facing another southpaw, Cristopher Sanchez is a vastly different pitcher than Luzardo. Sanchez has become a groundball artist and while he is not quite at the same game-to-game consistency as Webb and LHP Framber Valdez (61.5% versus the last 1,164 batters he has faced), the former reliever is not far behind with a 57.1% rate over the last two-plus seasons.

The 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod last year and over his last 66 starts, he has allowed more than four runs only four times. Game-time temperatures will be pushing 90 degrees, with a light 6-to-9 mph breeze out to right field.

For sites including the Los Angeles Angels on the road against the Toronto Blue Jays, RHP Max Scherzer is in play. The soon-to-be 41-year-old missed almost three months after injuring his thumb in March, though he has closed out the fifth inning in his two starts since returning to action.

He should be good for around 85 pitches this afternoon and while the Halos have power, they also strike out at the second-highest rate (26.0%) in the league against right-handed hurlers.

Rookie RHP Chad Patrick is worthy of consideration in Miami against the Marlins. He is a mediocre prospect, ranking 24th for Milwaukee, with above average strikeouts, but allowing plenty of hard hits and too many fly balls. He should be able to hold down a bullpen role once the Brewers have a fully healthy rotation, though for now he is likely to get the ball every five or so days through the summer.

Gamers who are feeling adventurous can also consider LHP Carlos Rodon in tournaments as he is at CitiField, taking on New York’s other team. Rodon is always a solid source of strikeouts, though his walk rate is running a little high and home runs are a risk, with his preference for challenging opposing hitters. Valdez is in Los Angeles, facing the Dodgers, though if any pitcher can survive against that endless offense, it is Fabulous Framber.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Alternative Target: San Francisco Giants

Fortunately RHP Luis Severino got a stellar 3-year, $67 million contract from the Athletics, because pitching in Sutter Health Park has not done him any favors. It has been a half-decade since Severino last flirted with 10-plus strikeouts per nine innings, but his 6.12 this season is by far a career-low and well below his 7.96 per nine from the two preceding campaigns. To his credit, he has limited home runs, though seven of his 11 this year have been at home, where opposing batsmen have looked like a parade of all-stars with a .300/.359/.468 triple-slash line.

The 31-year-old has been unlucky in his home park with a 58.2% strand rate, though that is partly on him for allowing so much contact of the hard hit (51.3%) variety. It is going to be in the mid-80s, with an 8-to-12 mph breeze towards centerfield during Severino’s pitching window, which is another challenge he will need to overcome.

San Francisco has a top-heavy lineup, though veteran Matt Chapman (hand) is on track to return from his injury today or tomorrow after missing nearly a month. He had three at bats yesterday in Triple-A, with one walk, one strikeout and a run scored.

Rafael Devers, Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames and Mike Yastrzemski profile well as the first four, along with Chapman. Dominic Smith is a discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,200) and FanDuel ($2,600), though he is a pinch-hit risk if lefties Sean Newcomb or Hogan Harris come in to relieve Severino.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for this sample MLB DFS slate:

Early Slate Primary Target: Washington Nationals

The 30-year-old has struggled mightily in his last six starts, with a 10.38 ERA, 8.47 FIP and 5.90 xFIP in 26 innings. He does have 23 strikeouts, but the 19, yes, NINETEEN walks have been problematic, as have the nine round-trippers. Lefties have had Buehler’s number, which bodes well for the best Nat’s bats.

James Wood has been tremendous this season and there is a good chance he makes the All-Star squad once the reserves are announced. He and CJ Abrams are each live for a multi-extra base hit game this afternoon, making this duo a foundational building block in all formats. Lefties Nathaniel Lowe and Luis Garcia also profile well against Buehler, as does veteran switch-hitter Josh Bell.

The BoSox also get to face a mediocre pitcher, with LHP Mitchell Parker doing his best to survive. The second-year starter has allowed four or more runs in six of 17 (35%) appearances, with to multi-home run games in his last four outings. Rob Refsnyder should be near the top of the order and he pairs nicely with catcher Carlos Narvaez on DraftKings and Yahoo, fulfilling the pesky backstop requirement. Romy Gonzaalez and Trevor Story can be added to the mix for a full-stack, will still leaving two outfield slots open for boppers from other teams.

For those playing in tournaments that include the first game of the day, do not worry too much about the weather as things look to clear up around 5 o’clock. Temperatures will be around 80 degrees and the elevated humidity along with a light 7-to-10 mph breeze out to centerfield should aid the offenses. Target RHP Taj Bradley with Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton and switch-hitters Willi Castro and Brooks Lee. The erstwhile ace has posted a career-low 20.3% strikeout rate this season and he is allowing a lot of power to lefties.

Minnesota is expected to call up RHP Travis Adams, who will most likely be serving as the “bulk” pitcher. Adams was a ninth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft and he profiles as a spot-starter/multi-inning reliever. This will be the first MLB action for the 25-year-old, who has five starts and three saves at Triple-A, with 19 total appearances. He has allowed just three home runs in 63.2 innings, though lefty-power at the major league level is likely to give him trouble.

Josh Lowe, Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe are the trio to target, with on-base maven Yandy Diaz and slugger Junior Caminero both worthy of DFS consideration.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

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O’Hearn has struggled in lefty-lefty matchups this season and it is likely that LHP Aaron Bummer will be the bulk pitcher for an Atlanta bullpen game today. Baltimore has struggled as a team against southpaws and in addition to Bummer and closer Dylan Lee, Atlanta has two other fresh lefties in the pen with Dylan Dodd having last worked Wednesday and Austin Cox an option, having logged 30 throws on Thursday.