MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 21
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Veteran RHP Jacob deGrom is in New York taking on the Yankees in an early-evening affair. Game-time temperatures are going to be in the low 50s, and there is a 10 to 14 mph breeze coming in from center field.
Taking on the Bronx Bombers is never fun, particularly in their home park, but the 3.9 team total is indicative of how well deGrom has been pitching now that he is healthy for the first time in what feels like forever.
Based on most DFS weather sources as well as the standard ones available on the innerweb, there is going to be rain during this game. The only uncertainty is when and how much.
That means extra attention is going to be headed towards LHP Garrett Crochet at home against New York’s other team. The Mets lost five of the last six games and are looking to avoid a series sweep tonight. In this stretch, the offense managed to plate just eight runners, and there are starting to be media rumblings about a lack of effort and lackadaisical attitudes, which is never fun for players in a slump.
While this is far from an easy matchup, Crochet is one of the rising stars at his craft, and he is among the American League Cy Young Award frontrunners. Currently, he ranks ninth with his 2.00 ERA and he has the fourth-most strikeouts on the season. Francisco Lindor has been slumping from the right-side of the plate, while surprise Cinderella hero from last year Mark Vientos has also been dreadful with the platoon advantage. Veteran Starling Marte is on the back nine for his career, while Tyrone Taylor and Luisangel Acuna are nothing to worry about at the bottom of the order.
To be clear, the Mets are talented and going to be a playoff contender all season; however, Crochet needs to be able to handle tough matchups to make good on his immense potential. None of the other options tonight are giving any warm and fuzzy feelings, but some quick assessments are:
Dustin May at home against Corbin Burnes is facing the Diamondbacks for the second time in 11 days, having survived in Arizona with two runs in 6.2 innings. Injuries have kept him from being a regular contributor, so it has been hard to get a real read on his current talent level and strikeout efficacy. Burnes is in play, though who really wants to tangle with the boys in blue at Dodger Stadium?
Kevin Gausman is at home against the Padres, and while he is no longer an apex predator, he still will have his moments, though it could be tougher sledding against San Diego now that everyone is healthy. For the bold, looking at Randy Vasquez is an option, but this is more about the struggling Toronto bats than it is about him being a good pitcher, with a walk rate (13.3%) this season that is higher than his strikeout rate (11.7%) across 196 batters faced. He has a $5,500 salary on DraftKings, which would allow gamers to load up on the Phillies bats.
Rain is likely going to take AJ Smith-Shawver off the board in Washington, though back to Boston we can consider Tylor Megill against the BoSox. Taijuan Walker actually would be sneaky in Coors Field, particularly since he has been moved into a long-relief role.
Chicago is giving rookie RHP Cade Horton a second consecutive start after he performed well as the bulk innings option in his debut, battling the Mets in New York for four innings, with three “Ernies” and five strikeouts. He then held his own against the White Sox, in Wrigley Field, ceding three runs, with two strikeouts. Horton was the seventh overall selection in the 2022 MLB Draft after a solid career as an Oklahoma Sooner. He has only 47 innings at the Triple-A level, so expect him to be sent back down to the minors for more seasoning if he struggles in this matchup and all but assuredly when Shota Imanaga returns from the injured list.
Miami has been pesky at times this season, but the Marlins have not been at full strength for more than a handful of games. Currently, it is Xavier Edwards and Dane Myers who are hurt, and while that may not seem like much for a team that lacks any truly terrifying bats, every bit of above average depth is crucial.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Tertiary Target: Colorado Rockies
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has the Athletics and Los Angeles Angels as the two highest projected squads after the Phillies, with the teams doing battle in West Sacramento in 80-degree temperatures. Arizona has been written up here half a dozen times over the last fortnight, so covering them against May is redundant and The Masses will be taking shots against Vasquez with the key Blue Jays.
So in a fun twist, it is the Colorado Rockies who get the call out tonight. Normally, I do not specifically break down the Coors Field Extravaganza since the DFS world knows the advantages and disadvantages of this venue by heart. However, in the interest of new material, we are going to look to the Rockies and highlight a few players.
Walker is in his 13th MLB campaign, and the last two seasons he has bounced between a role in the rotation and as a multi-inning reliever. Though his home runs are down this year, his walks are well above his career rate and his 2.62 ERA has been a product of good fortune, considering his 3.61 xERA, 3.44 FIP and 4.24 xFIP.
The Philadelphia bullpen has seen moderate work, and while there are fresh arms available, manager Rob Thomson may elect to let Walker just work through any jams with one more game at elevation tomorrow and then a weekend series in homer-happy Sutter Health Park. There is also the bonus of the Phillies bats likely putting up early runs and creating a cushion for Walker to eat some innings.
Last year, Walker gave up a combined .419 wOBA and a .272 ISO, making the composite hitters going against him an MVP-level amalgamation. Ryan McMahon and switch-hitter Michael Toglia are the key hitters to target, with right-handers Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Jordan Beck and Hunter Goodman all in contention to round out full stacks.
The Phillies get one call-out who is less than obvious when surrounded by the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos, with Alec Bohm someone to consider both in DFS and in the wagering market. Currently, he is +560 to hit a home run on FanDuel while looking good on the pick’em sites with the over on 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Edmundo Sosa and Weston Wilson are the discount dandies for DFS that can help provide cheap exposure to the highest team total of the season.
Early Slate Primary Target: Chicago Cubs
Meyer was the third overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and he was the second-best prospect in the Miami system while ranking just inside the top 100 on most industry lists. This year he got off to a scorching start, peaking with a 14-strikeout performance against the Cincinnati Reds exactly one month ago. Through five starts, spanning 30 innings, he had 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings, limiting power and putting forth a sterling 2.10 ERA, 2.46 FIP and 2.12 xFIP.
The next four starts saw things normalize, with the nadir being a 10-hit outing, including three home runs, against the Athletics where Meyer did not record a single whiff. In these 20.1 innings, he had 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, a 7.97 ERA, 5.99 FIP and 4.17 xFIP. The 26-year-old is obviously talented, and he has a clear path to becoming a frontline starter, though he needs more reps under his belt and getting those against the top offense in baseball is a good learning experience but also fraught with danger.
Switch-hitter Ian Happ (oblique) has returned to the top of the order, which gives the Cubs an embarrassment of riches on top of the breakout season put forth by Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had been filling in as the leadoff hitter. There is the lefty-righty combo of Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki, who are getting protection from masher Michael Busch in the cleanup slot. Two-time All-Star Dansby Swanson is slipping on offense as he is now in his early 30s, but he can still get it done and has at least another handful of seasons as a top gloveman, which puts his pinch-hit risk to around zero.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Robert is going against RHP Logan Evans, who is making his fifth career appearance in The Show. Evans was a 12th-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft after spending four seasons in the college ranks, split between Penn State and the University of Pittsburgh. He is a middling prospect for Seattle who would be better served as a multi-inning reliever. He has a solid sweeper but a below-average fastball and no real secondary selection. That makes it tough for him to face hitters more than once in a game since they have already seen his meager options.
