MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
During a four-game series in Seattle, all losses, the Angels struck out 17, 11, 16 and 18 times. RHPs Bryan Woo (13 strikeouts) and George Kirby (14 strikeouts) each set career marks against the Halos. This was the second time that Kirby struck out 14 against Los Angeles this season, and he also had a nine-strikeout performance in between those two efforts. In those three tilts, he tallied 37 strikeouts in 19.1 innings, which is almost two per frame.
Peralta has been outstanding this season, earning All-Star Game accolades, and he is currently second in the league with 16 wins, enjoying the fruits of the Milwaukee offense as the Brewers hold a narrow 1.5-game lead over Philadelphia for the best record in baseball. The Brewers have clinched a Wild Card berth, though they have not quite put away the Chicago Cubs for the National League Central division title.
The projected lineup for Anaheim has a 26.9% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, with only light-hitting Luis Rengifo (18.5%, 417 plate appearances) having a sub-25% rate. There is ample power at the top of the order, though the bottom of the lineup card with Rengifo, Logan O’Hoppe, Logan Davidson and Bryce Teodosio hardly walks, barely has extra-base hit upside and strikes out like it is its job. This is a three-up, three-down dream for opposing pitchers.
We will be paying top dollar for Peralta tonight with a Coors Field Extravaganza also looming, but this still a strong allocation of salary.
Isaac Paredes is out for the rest of the season, and on Monday night Yordan Alvarez sprained his ankle crossing home plate in the first inning. He left the park on crutches and with his left foot in a boot. With further diagnosis pending, it would be a shock if he plays for the next week at a minimum.
Texas brought RHP Merrill Kelly over from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline. The 36-year-old has performed well in his eight appearances, posting a 3.19 ERA, 4.50 FIP and 4.08 xFIP.
Kelly has always been a better “real life” pitcher than a DFS asset. However, he does provide a discount from Peralta on DraftKings (20%) and Yahoo (16%).
Even without two of its better hitters, the Houston lineup is still stout, buoyed by the deadline additions of Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Correa. Long-term prospect Zach Cole is up from Triple-A, though the 25-year-old has a 2027 arrival target. He has ample power and speed, but he repeated at Double-A to start the season and his 36.3% strikeout rate was not much better than his 38.3% from last year. Kelly does not have much in the way of strikeout stuff, but veteran savvy should give him an edge over the rookie.
Tonight Shohei Ohtani will be starting for the Dodgers in Los Angeles, though he has a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies and the team has indicated he will not pitch more than five innings under any circumstances.
In his last five starts, he averaged 4.2 innings and a 4.71 ERA, accompanied by a hefty 32 strikeouts in 21 frames. He averaged 71.4 pitches in this stretch, with highs of 80 and 87 throws.
LHP Cristopher Sanchez (+1600) has been sublime this season, currently trailing RHP Paul Skenes (-10000) for the National League Cy Young Award, just ahead of Peralta (+4000). It is never fun taking on the boys in blue at Dodger Stadium, particularly with the team piling up 45 runs in the last six games.
RHP Logan Gilbert is in play, though he does not offer much in the way of a discount to Peralta and Kansas City has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, with the Royals projected lineup at 17.6% this season.
Finally, there is also LHP Eduardo Rodriguez at home against the San Francisco Giants. The Chase Field roof will be closed this series, which is a boost to pitchers, though the real appeal for Rodriguez is his $6,500 salary on DraftKings and $34 on Yahoo, where gamers are required to roster two pitchers.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Value Target: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are not a flashy team, though they are pretty pesky. Luis Robert Jr. (hamstring) is out, but Miguel Vargas returned to action after a stint on the injured list with a sprained left hand. He is still shaking off the rust, but having him in the heart of the order is helpful.
Chicago not only can be rostered on the cheap, but the team has an underrated matchup against RHP Dean Kremer. In his last outing, Kremer held the Dodgers hitless and scoreless for three innings before leaving the game with forearm soreness. It would appear that he avoided any serious issues, and he has been cleared after taking it easy for the last 10 days and looking solid in a bullpen session.
In his two preceding starts to the injury, he was knocked around for 16 hits and 14 runs, with only five strikeouts against a trio of taters in 15 combined innings against Houston and in San Francisco. The 29-year-old has challenges against opposite-handed power hitters, and thus the ChiSox to target first will be catcher Kyle Teel, shortstop Colson Montgomery and veteran Andrew Benintendi. Michael Tauchman is a fine option from the leadoff slot, with righties Lenyn Sosa and Vargas rounding out full stacks.
Baltimore has a weak bullpen, plus the team just put Albert Suarez and Shawn Dubin on the injured list. Enjoy!
Main Slate Tertiary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee has been outstanding up and down the lineup, recording a wicked 5.08 runs per game, trailing only the Yankees (5.16) and Dodgers (5.11). Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and catcher William Contreras remain the core four. Sal Frelick is in play if he is leading off, and Jake Bauers is a differentiation piece to gain separation from other Milwaukee stacks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Austin Wells to hit a home run tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Home runs are fickle, but it is crazy to not shop for the best odds as these can be a sucker’s bet when comparing the best and the worst lines available. Wells will be towards the bottom of the order, though with the Yankees having an embarrassment of power throughout the lineup, he will be one of the easier targets for RHP Zebby Matthews. Lefty power has been an issue for Matthews, who suffered a .190 ISO in his last 257 opposite-handed matchups.
