MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Dodge the Rain with a Los Angeles Stack! (July 1)

Tuesday keeps the week moving with a terrific 10-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is locking at 6:35 p.m. ET with a robust 14-game docket. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Los Angeles Dodgers at home against rookie Shane Smith and both sides of the Coors Field Extravaganza are the leading offenses to target. On the pitching front Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Matthew Boyd are the aces in action, with Jacob deGrom and Shane Baz alternative options.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

In Los Angeles, there are no weather concerns for RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto who will be facing the Chicago White Sox. The 26-year-old had three of his four “worst” starts in June, though he still ended the month with a 4.21 ERA, 4.49 FIP and 4.01 xFIP, collecting 26 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. In his last start, he blanked the Rockies in Coors Field for five innings, allowing just two baserunners. The Pale Hose are pretty pathetic again this year, after setting all sorts of dubious records in 2024.

Even with weather issues impacting half of the games tonight, plus a Coors Field Extravaganza, there are enough discounted bats across the various DFS sites to help facilitate employing Yamamoto along with a top-stack. Anything less than a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts will be an utter disappointment for the former Oriz Buffalo ace tonight.

Though his strikeout rate is down to 23.0% this season, the southpaw still limits walks and does a decent job suppressing power. Cleveland’s projected lineup has a sub-20% strikeout rate against lefties this season, however, four different batsmen have struck out at a 26.7% rate or higher.

While it is folly trying to project the win, the Cubs are -175 home favorites to garner the victory, which gives additional fantasy upside for Boyd.

Other options tonight include RHP Shane Baz in Tampa, though we will need to keep tabs on the forecast. The summer weather in this region is wild, with patchy storm systems that can dump an inch or more per hour in one location, yet there is nary a drop two miles away.

Baz has retooled his pitch mix, leaning on a cutter over the last couple of games, which has helped him to eight scoreless innings in Kansas City on Thursday and 6.2 clean frames two starts ago in New York, against the Mets. In betwixt, he did get roughed up for five runs at home against Detroit, though two out of three ain’t bad.

In Texas, RHP Jacob deGrom will be facing the Baltimore Orioles, with no worries about the weather. He projects to be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings, aided by a $500 savings when compared to Yamamoto. If Atlanta is dealing with rain, gamers are going to pivot away from RHP Grant Holmes, who is the most popular option across the main DFS sites, which could lead to Baz getting more tournament representation since this duo is at a similar salary.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Value Target: Colorado Rockies

The team has the second-lowest walk rate (7.3%), the highest strikeout rate (26.9%) and only the Los Angeles Angels have a worse stolen base success rate than the Rockies 68.2%. But wait — there’s more — Colorado has the second most errors in the league, trailing Boston by one, though with eight more than third place Cleveland. Finally they also have recorded the third-most double plays and while that would seem like a good thing, it really isn’t, since it means there are constantly opposing runners on base.

Now that we have covered the dreadful, let’s focus on the positives. The team is cheap, even on Yahoo and it will be a mostly right-handed lineup against LHP Colton Gordon. The rookie is essentially an unranked prospect in the Houston organization, who would normally be a nameless, faceless bullpen arm for most teams, if he even made it to The Show.

The 26-year-old bounced around three different Florida college programs, being drafted in the eighth round of the 2021 MLB Draft. He is a crafty lefty at best, with a fastball barely into the 90s, with moderate command of his breaking pitches. If not for Houston having an entire starting rotation on the injured list, we would not even know the kid’s name.

Look to Jordan Beck, Brenton Doyle and switch-hitter Michael Toglia as the trio to target for the home team. The ‘Stros have a mediocre bullpen, with an average age of 30.5 years, with closer Josh Hader and RHP Bryan Abreu the only high-level arms.

Houston rates out as the top-stack, facing RHP Chase Dollander, who has been called up after just 122 MiLB innings, with his only Triple-A action being four innings this season. He is a decent prospect, but getting on the job training, since Colorado really doesn’t have any other choices. He is a top-20 prospect on most industry lists, though he was not projected to be ready for the big leagues until next year. He has a good fastball with movement and velocity, but his secondary pitches are all lacking polish.

The Astros are hurting without Yordan Alvarez, with only switch-hitters Victor Caritini and Cooper Hummel swinging the stick from the left side of the plate. Christian Walker has also been disappointing as the big bat brought in to offset the losses of Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, though Isaac Paredes has been solid as an on-base machine with above average power. Cam Smith has moved into the cleanup slot, with Walker sliding down the batting order, making him a priority play. Jeremy Pena was just placed on the injured list, so expect Jake Meyers to be near the top of the order.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Alternate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers

Smith was a Rule 5 draft selection from Milwaukee, so the expectation was that he would stick around as a reliever this year for Chicago. Instead, he worked on a changeup, which has been a tremendous add to his arsenal and it enabled him to make the rotation. He has good velocity on his fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and he has been able to touch 100 mph on occasion. This is a fun story, though it is important to remember that most teams would keep him as a reliever, though with the ChiSox, he is one of three rookies in the rotation, with retreads Aaron Civale and Adrian Houser holding down the other two spots.

The Yahoo salary algorithm has undervalued Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez, making this the trio to target on the secret site. It is a similar situation on FanDuel, with the blue site giving Shohei Ohtani a $4,700 cap hit, with no other Los Angeles player above $3,500. DraftKings has Ohtani at $6,500 and Freeman at $5,000, though the rest of the usual suspects are at a fair value.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Chase Dollander under 3.5 strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

Dollander was covered above in more detail, but in summary he is not quite ready to face major league hitters. He projects for 3.8 strikeouts tonight, which is still below the four needed for this under to fail. The expected Houston lineup has a 20.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season-plus, with Dollander’s 17.8% rate below that. In his last five starts, Dollander has a high of four strikeouts, with just 11 total in his 23.2 innings during this span. On the season, he has four or more strikeouts in seven of his 13 starts.