MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Aside from his salary cap hit and popularity, it is the homer happy pitching environment at Great American Ballpark, with offensive friendly weather that bring the only negative marks against Strider. Clearly he is the foundational play for “cash game” (H2Hs, 3-mans, 50/50s, etc.) lineups, while also being fine for tournaments. Though with baseball being baseball, a Reds counter-stack is something savvy gamers will be considering, with Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Jake Fraley and Spencer Steer being the most intriguing options, with Gavin Lux en vogue for those seeking full-stacks.
DraftKings has taken an unusual approach of eschewing the lone 7:15 p.m. ET Game, so it looks like RHP Aaron Civale in Anaheim is going to be in the mix as he will be taking on the Angels, who have been mediocre on their best days. Civale has allowed just one unearned run in his last 11 innings, blanking the Pirates for six in Pittsburgh, then allowing the lone unearned run at home against the crosstown rival Cubs. Though Civale is a little better than a replacement level pitcher, he still has a slightly better projection than venerable veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks, who has the golden opportunity against Civale’s teammates on offense.
Opposite Strider is RHP Chase Burns, who is the wildest of wild cards, having struck out 10 hitters in each of his last three games. Doing it against the Dodgers in his last start was impressive and it is no slight that it was in Washington and against Colorado for the other two. No matter how it is dissected, 30 whiffs in 17.1 innings is DFS gold. He did have three walks, 17 hits, with of the eight extra-base variety including two round-trippers. His 5.19 ERA is well above his 2.17 FIP and 1.96 xFIP, caused by a hefty .385 batting average on balls in play, with a 59.4% strand rate in this trio of tilts. The Atlanta offense is in shambles and now Ronald Acuna Jr. is back on the injured reserve.
In Washington, the Nationals are welcoming RHP Brandon Woodruff and the Milwaukee Brewers, who are not only battling the Chicago Cubs for the National League Central Division, but these two teams are also fighting for the best record in the senior circuit as well.
Woodruff has had four efficient starts, since missing two-plus years with a shoulder injury, working his pitch count up from 70, to 81, to 62 and 85 on Sunday. The 32-year-old has closed out the sixth inning in three of the four starts, with a sterling 29 strikeouts in 22.1 innings.
It is going to be tricky threading the needle with his 85-to-88 expected soft pitch count, while also providing a return on his salary, though this is a matchup where he should succeed.
Washington’s projected lineup has just over a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, with a woeful .111 ISO. The Brewers are road favorites against RHP Jake Irvin, which also means Woodruff should be in the mix for the win, if he can finish up the fifth inning.
In Seattle, RHP Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers are going against M’s veteran rotation stabilizer RHP Luis Castillo. T-Mobile Park is the Coors Field of pitching, so both frontline starters are worthy of our consideration.
The Mariners improved their lineup by adding Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez in separate deals with Arizona, which increases the degree of difficulty for deGrom. Texas has been better over the last month, though it looks like Castillo could also be returning to form with an uptick in his effectiveness in the same timeframe.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Athletics
Veteran RHP Zac Gallen is coming off a rough three-game stretch, where he has suffered an 8.47 ERA, with 16 runs allowed across 17 frames of work. There has been a lot of bad luck as indicated by his 4.62 FIP and 3.73 xFIP, but considering these games were in Pittsburgh, Anaheim and at home against Houston, it could also be the sign of a troubling trend that is taking hold.
Across 547 batters faced this season, Gallen has suffered a .203 ISO with same-handed batsmen getting him for a .217 ISO and lefties also murdering the ball with a .187 ISO. Flyballs have been an issue and that is only going to be exacerbated in this hitting friendly venue, with the 8-to-10 mph breeze out to center field.
The top-five hitters are the main targets, with lefties Lawrence Butler, rookie Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom the first wave of desirable DFS clicks, followed by righties Brent Rooker and catcher Shea Langeliers.
It will be RHP J.T. Ginn toeing the rubber for the A’s, which bodes well for switch-hitter Ketel Marte and budding superstar Corbin Carroll. Geraldo Perdomo is likely to slot ahead of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., since the switch-hitting shortstop is much better from the left-side of the plate. Depending on where he is in the lineup, Adrian Del Castillo is a viable salary saver, both in stacks and as a one-off on DraftKings ($2,900) and FanDuel ($2,500).
Main Slate Alternative Target: Houston Astros
Somehow Buehler was a solid contributor throughout the postseason for the Dodgers last year, otherwise he had a dreadful regular season similar to this campaign. Across his last 812 batters faced, the recently minted 31-year-old has a subpar 18.2% strikeout rate, while allowing a .218 ISO to lefties and a .182 ISO to fellow righties.
Adding Jesus Sanchez from Miami gives the Astros a left-handed hitter they can put in the top of the order, which will help disburse a mostly right-handed lineup. Jeremy Pena was also activated from the injured list on Friday, which gives the team another competent hitter at the top of the order. Houston also brought back Carlos Correa, incentivized by $33 million from Minnesota, lowering the three-year cost to $96 million for the ‘Stros. It is expected that the oft-injured shortstop will move to third base, where his glove will still far outperform his bat, which has not been consistent for the last couple of seasons.
Christian Walker has also scuffled in his first season away from Arizona, though sliding down the order should also help his production. Taylor Trammell and switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini are the other two hitters to target with the platoon-advantage over Walker, assuming they are in the lineup.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Aaron Civale under 4.5 strikeouts allowed tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates!
For Civale, he projects for 4.39 strikeouts, which is below the 4.5 threshold and of course the five needed for this under to fail. Most books have posted this wager in the -140 to -150 range, so the -122 on NoVig is appealing. Letting PortfolioEV do the heavy lifting is key as the math behind baseball wagers is often complicated, since most offerings are event based actions, that are far more rare than say yards in the NFL or points and rebounds in the NBA.
