MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 8
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Next up is RHP Spencer Schwellenbach, who has been roughed up in his last four outings, giving up 19 runs, with 17 “Ernies” in 21.1 innings. He has more strikeout upside than RHP Chris Bassitt, but also the tougher matchup and there is a chance for roving showers in Atlanta.
Turning our attention to Bassitt, the 36-year-old has been in the innings-eater phase of his career for a while now and while he has allowed only 13 runs this season, 11 of them have come in the last three games.
The schedule has been daunting for him with games in the Big Apple against both New York teams, in Boston, in Houston and against Atlanta, Baltimore and Cleveland. Each of those teams, save for Boston, was in the playoffs last year and while rosters evolve, these are still among the top offenses this season.
Mike Trout (knee) is on the injured list, though Yoan Moncada returned to action and the switch-hitter brings some pop from the left side of the plate. That is a weakness for Bassitt, though fortunately switch-hitters Luis Rengifo and Gustavo Campero are below replacement level against righties. Nolan Schanuel is the only other lefty in the projected lineup and he has been pretty anemic this season with the platoon-advantage, posting a .308 wOBA and .130 ISO in 104 plate appearances.
While there are only eight teams in action tonight, there are some fun potential paths to pitching success.
In the running out of things to say about the Chicago offense, there is a positive in that the White Sox have only been shut out four times this year. Bubic does a fine job of limiting power, not that the Pale Hose have many viable sluggers, with the southpaw also presenting strikeout upside.
Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert Jr. are the veteran bats that could cause trouble, with youngsters Chase Meidroth and Edgar Quero getting on the job training as the leadoff and cleanup hitters. Advantage Bubic.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
In his last start, the Phillies got to him for seven runs and two round-trippers in Philadelphia. The 26-year-old will be a frontline starter for the next half decade, but he isn’t quite there yet.
The MVPs at the top of the order in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the obvious plays, however, the back of the order can provide some discounted differentiation. James Outman should be in the lineup and he is only $2,200 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Hyeseong Kim should also be in the lineup, with Tommy Edman injured, with his ability to play either middle infield role as well as in the outfield. Max Muncy and Michael Conforto will each have the platoon-advantage and it is also favorable that they are not one of the former MVPs, which means they may see better pitches to hit from Pfaadt if he is in self-preservation mode.
Early Slate Contrarian Target: Minnesota Twins
Hat tip to RHP Dean Kremer, who just blanked the Royals for seven innings, ceding just three hits, with one walk and two strikeouts. He also has issued a scant nine walks in his 37.2 innings, but the feel good runs out there. The 29-year-old has only 22 strikeouts against 26 runs allowed, with four starts leading to five or more runs. Expect the strikeouts to trend up a little, though most season long projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat) have him around 7.5 per nine innings, which is a significant drop from his 8.3 per nine over the last two full seasons.
Most of the power for the Twins is at the top of the order with righties Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers on either side of lefty Trevor Larnach. Carlos Correa is not an easy out and though Royce Lewis has been towards the bottom of the order as he regains his sea-legs, it takes only one swing of his bat for his backers to be grinning from ear-to-ear. It would not be a surprise if someone among these recommended batsmen gets a day off with this being an early start time, but that will only serve to keep the attention away from this stack.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take Bailey Ober’s under 6.5 strikeouts, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Ober has a 25.3% strikeout rate over the last season and change, but this year he has slipped to 18.7%, in an albeit small sample size of 166 batters faced. The top of the Baltimore order does not strikeout much, plus lefties Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn and budding superstar Gunnar Henderson bring extreme power and that could cause problems for Ober and his flyball tendencies. The soon-to-be 30-year-old has notched six strikeouts twice in his seven appearances, but he has not cleared seven this season. In full transparency, he did reach seven-plus in half of his starts last year, though in 2023 it was in just 8-of-26 (31%) of his appearances.
