MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Get Some Angels in the Outfield! (July 3)

Thursday brings us to the cusp of a three-day weekend with an eight-game featured slate locking at 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch on FanDuel and Yahoo, while DraftKings is locking at 7:70 p.m. ET with a seven-game docket. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Los Angeles Dodgers at home against journeyman Aaron Civale, with the New York Yankees looking good against RHP Chris Bassitt in Toronto and the Los Angeles Angels profiling well against RHP Bryce Elder in Atlanta. On the pitching front, Robbie Ray is the “best” foundational building block, with Bryan Woo in Seattle against the Kansas City Royals a direct salary pivot, with oft-injured Dustin May getting a desirable matchup against the hapless Chicago White Sox.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

The favorable salary for Ray on Yahoo isn’t going to break the bank and while it is the second-highest for the featured-slate, there are enough discounted bats that it is not a challenge to employ the 2021 American League Cy Young Award winner against one of his former teams. In a mid-May matchup against Arizona, Ray logged a quality start with a season-high nine strikeouts. He has ceded three or fewer runs in his last 13 appearances, while continuing to produce solid strikeout production.

It is sad to see Corbin Carroll (wrist) sidelined, along with catcher Gabriel Moreno and utility infielder Ildemaro Vargas. The D’backs still have productive hitters against southpaws in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., switch-hitter Ketel Marte and the resurgent Eugenio Suarez. The bottom of the lineup card should provide three-up, three-down potential with unheralded prospects Tim Tawa and Blaze Alexander, along with 35-year-old journeyman backstop James McCann.

Josh Naylor returned to action after missing a couple games with a sore neck, though he has struggled in lefty-lefty matchups this season with a .275 wOBA and .089 ISO. Randal Grichuk provides power when he makes contact, though he is far from a daunting bat at this stage of his career.

Unfortunately, a myriad of maladies limited May to just 191.2 career innings, since he got his first callup in 2019. This year he has remained mostly healthy and his 82.2 frames are easily a season-high and represent nearly one-third of his action in The Show.

June was rough for May, as the 27-year-old issued 15 walks in his five starts, spanning 27 innings. He had just 17 strikeouts, along with five home runs, which was lucky considering his flyball tendencies.

So how the heck did May land in the featured recommendation? Well, he is going against the Chicago White Sox, who are a dreadful team by any measure and now without Luis Robert Jr. (hamstring) and potentially Michael A. Taylor who’s head collided with Max Muncy’s knee while the third baseman was trying to tag Taylor out on a stolen base attempt.

That leaves journeymen Andrew Benintendi and Mike Tauchman, along with former Dodgers prospect Miguel Vargas as the only worrisome bats. May does have four quality starts in his last seven outings, so that bonus is in play on FanDuel and Los Angeles is currently -300 home favorites, so if the erstwhile ace can close out the fifth inning, there is a good chance he will be in line for the win.

Other candidates for tournaments tonight include enigmatic RHP Brandon Pfaadt against Ray and the Giants, RHP Bryan Woo and the Mariners hosting the Kansas City Royals in Seattle and RHP Clarke Schmidt in Toronto as the New York Yankees battle the Blue Jays. May the odds be ever in your favor.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Contrarian Target: New York Yankees

That game being left off of the DraftKings slate is why there is a sizeable different between the top stack probability for the Yankees. New York will be facing RHP Chris Bassitt, who is coming off a dreadful start in Boston, where he allowed nine runs in just two innings. Even more troubling, he issued four free passes and hit a batter, with a double being the lone extra-base hit.

Prior to this start, the 36-year-old had been mostly steady, with a 3.61 ERA, 3.43 FIP and just 21 walks in 92.1 frames, with a strong 90 strikeouts and only 10 home runs allowed. It could have just been “one of those games” for the 12-year veteran, though going against the Yankees is far from a “get right” spot.

The best way to go after Bassitt, is to look for left-handed power, which puts Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger on the shortlist of players to target, along with Aaron Judge, who is in the midst of a splendiferous season.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Contrarian Target: Los Angeles Angels

Elder can be attacked by power bats of either-handedness, with lefties getting to him for a .196 ISO since the start of last year and same-handed batsmen crushing to the tune of a .222 ISO in the same timeframe. This season, Elder has a .302 xBA, a .518 xSLG and a 5.70 xERA, essentially making all opposing hitters look like prime Mike Trout.

Speaking of which, present day Trout has been excellent this season in righty-righty matchups, with a .236 ISO in 200 plate appearances. Taylor Ward (.255 ISO, 291 PAs), Jo Adell (.242 ISO, 219 PAs) and Zach Neto (.188 ISO, 217 PAs) have all performed well against same-handed hurlers. Atlanta playoff hero Jorge Soler has returned after missing the last fortnight with a back injury, giving the Angels another upgrade. First baseman Nolan Schanuel has better power numbers against opposite-handed pitchers, putting him squarely in contention as a stackable piece as well.

Atlanta did use four relievers yesterday, though the Braves have an above average bullpen, so there are options to follow Elder if he falters. He has closed out the fourth inning only once in his last three starts, though manager Brian Snitker has allowed him to try to work out of jams on his own, before sending in the cavalry.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Dustin May under 4.5 strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

In the DFS section above, May was covered in detail and while he is an intriguing option in that format, we can still wager against him in the betting markets. He does project for a tick over 4.5 strikeouts today, though still less than the five needed for this under to fail. The projected lineup for the White Sox has a 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, which is around league-average, while May has a 21.0% K-rate, which is below average for a starter. Ideally the patience of Tauchman, Benintendi, Vargas and rookie Chase Meidroth will help use up the pitch count before the Ginger Hammer cobbles together five strikeouts.