According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Cincinnati Reds are the coveted play, though there are plenty of alternative paths, including the Orioles and Miami Marlins in Baltimore, the Tampa Bay Rays in Boston and the Colorado Rockies in Great American Ballpark. On the pitching front, there are ample aces on both slates, with Hunter Brown the priority in the early games and Cristopher Sanchez for the afternoon action.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The 26-year-old is posting career highs across the board, and he leads the American League with a 2.21 ERA while also being named to his first All-Star team. The matchup today is far from a cake walk, as Texas scored the second-most runs in the league over the last 30 days. Brown still has the advantage of being one of the best pitchers in the league, and he is in the chase group just behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet for the American League Cy Young Award race.
Strikeouts are the currency of the MLB DFS realm, and that is where Brown excels with an impressive 30.8% combined strikeout rate, well above his excellent 25.5% rate from last season. Collectively, the projected Texas lineup has a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, though Adolis Garcia (23.4%, 282 plate appearances), Wyatt Langford (26.6%, 233 PAs) and Jake Burger (27.1%, 225 PAs) are well above league average.
Other options on the featured slate include RHP Logan Gilbert in Detroit, though we are paying full freight for the Seattle ace. In the five games since returning from a six-week absence, he recorded 84, 90, 84, 95 and 88 pitches. For the Tigers, RHP Jack Flaherty is in play as the Motor City Kitties head into the All-Star Break with the best record in the league. The Mariners have been locked in during their Motown stay, scoring 27 runs in the first two games of this series, so there is underlying risk for both of the frontline starters in this matchup.
The discount dandy on DraftKings ($6,800) and Yahoo ($28) is RHP Joey Cantillo in Chicago taking on the hapless White Sox. Cantillo opened the season as a multi-inning reliever, then he spent June in the minors getting stretched out as a starter. He logged 68 and 84 pitches since returning to The Show, and while it probably will be touch and go for the 26-year-old to close out the fifth inning, he is a fine SP2 option on the two-pitcher sites.
Friday the Padres had to deal with LHP Ranger Suarez, and last night it was RHP Zack Wheeler, which presents a nice dichotomy for Sanchez’s unique pitching style after his fellow aces. San Diego has struggled against southpaws this season, and the projected lineup has only Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as consistent contributors against left-handed hurlers.
In Anaheim, RHP Merrill Kelly will be facing the mostly right-handed Halos lineup, with the 36-year-old boasting a 27.2% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters over the last season plus.
It will be interesting to see how many gamers take this less-traveled path once they get a glimpse of the 4.7 team total for the Angels.
Kelly is in the midst of a resurgent season, and while he is typically classified as a “better in real life” pitcher, savvy DFS gamers will make sure to have him well represented in their player portfolio.
The final recommended pitcher is RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was embarrassed in Milwaukee on Monday, getting pulled from the game in the first inning after allowing five runs and recording only two outs.
That was the third time this season that Yamamoto was tagged for five runs, with San Francisco being one of the teams giving the 26-year-old trouble during a mid-June meeting in Los Angeles.
This should not dissuade anyone from selecting Yamamoto as a foundational building block, but it is still worth calling out. In that game, the Giants were patient, getting five walks, along with six hits. The former NPB star is still a top-20 starter, though he is going to have to work to hold onto that designation for the latter half of the season.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Colorado Rockies
POP QUIZ: When did RHP Nick Martinez make his MLB debut? Well, dear reader, it was all the way back in 2014 with the Texas Rangers. In 2018, he washed out of the big leagues, opting to spend four seasons in Japan playing for the Nippon Ham Fighters and the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. San Diego took a chance on him in 2022, and he spent two seasons eating innings for the Padres before moving on to the same role for Cincinnati.
While he did take a no-hit bid into the eighth inning against the Friars three starts ago, the Regression Monster was waiting, and in his two subsequent starts, he allowed 16 hits, three walks and 14 runs in 11.2 innings while striking out only four. The Rockies are cheap on most sites, with the heart of the order providing a variety of above-average options at multiple positions.
Mikey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Ryan McMahon and Jordan Beck are the core four, and switch-hitter Michael Toglia is a contrarian play. Full stacks are probably overkill, though one-offs, duos and trios are the perfect way to obtain salary cap relief to facilitate a two-ace build with a strong primary stack on DraftKings and Yahoo.
More conventional stacks outside of this game include the Brewers in Milwaukee against RHP Jake Irvin, whose best attribute is making regular starts for Washington. Tampa Bay looks intriguing in Boston against RHP Brayan Bello in warm weather, with both sides of the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles having appeal as the mercury crests at 90 degrees in Camden Yards. Finally, the Cleveland Guardians are in Chicago facing old friend RHP Aaron Civale, whom the Brewers banished and dealt to the White Sox after he chose to not accept a bullpen role.
Late Slate Primary Target: Toronto Blue Jays
Home runs are always an issue for RHP Jose Berrios, who has allowed the second most in the league since the start of 2022. He mostly survives by limiting walks and inducing weak contact, with his strikeout stuff a thing of the past. Outside of his rookie year, Berrios has had only one season in which he recorded an ERA over 4.00. This year he is holding strong at a 3.53 ERA, though he allowed five or more runs in four of his 19 (21%) starts.
The A’s are loaded with power bats, so there is no shortage of options to roll out this afternoon. This year it is fellow righties who have given Berrios the most trouble, but last year it was lefties. Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom comprise the first wave of options. Catcher Shea Langeliers and utility man Max Muncy are below average at making contact in same-handed matchups; however, each boasts a .205 ISO or higher.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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