MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Blue Jays used most of their relievers at least once in the last two days, though only LHP Brendon Little pitched on both days. This is key background information since there is a good chance that manager John Schneider will not be afraid to lean on the bullpen with so much at stake.
In Bieber’s favor, the 30-year-old pitched into the sixth inning in all six of his starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. The team made sure he was good and ready, so he has been able to average 92.5 pitches per appearance. His strikeout rate is well below his pre-injury heyday in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but he is still getting nearly one per inning, with 34 in his 35.1 frames thus far.
Overall there is a paucity of strikeouts in the Tampa lineup, though the team is, of course, without slugger Jonathan Aranda, and now on-base maven Yandy Diaz is day-to-day due to a groin issue. Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero and Josh Lowe are all tough outs, but the rest of the lineup is rounded out by youngsters and deep reserves.
Special shout out to rookie Chandler Simpson, who has 43 stolen bases, which is the second most in the league, while former teammate Jose Caballero is at the top with 48 thefts. It is more impressive when realizing that he spent the first three weeks of the season in Triple-A before his debut and he was also sent down for most of June so he could work on his hitting. This should not dissuade anyone from taking Bieber tonight; it is just fun to note these tidbits with only three days left in the season for most teams.
In Seattle, RHPs Emmet Sheehan and George Kirby are squaring off as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Mariners do battle. L.A. has clinched the National League West and will be the No. 3 seed, meaning it hosts the Wild Card round against either the New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds (one game back) or the Arizona Diamondbacks (two games back, needing lots of help). The Chicago Cubs are likely going to be the No. 4 seed since they have a two-game lead over the San Diego Padres, though if the Cubbies melt down and the Friars surge, the series will be held in San Diego.
The Dodgers have some incentive to hold their one-game lead over the Cubs, but that will only come into play for homefield advantage if both teams make it to the National League Championship. Pushing for an advantage that is unlikely to come to fruition is a bit silly, so we could see some of the regulars get a day off for Los Angeles in this series.
If Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts end up being spectators, it will make Kirby a little more palatable against the offensive juggernaut.
The low salary does not have as much utility on FanDuel, aside from creating a lineup loaded with boppers at every position. DraftKings and Yahoo are different stories since they require two pitchers, creating a different opportunity cost proposition than on the blue site.
McDonald is a decent prospect, ranking in the top 10 for San Francisco, though he is in the 150 to 200 range across the expanded industry lists. He was an 11th-round selection out of high school in the 2019 MLB Draft, so the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season had a major impact on his development.
There is very little strikeout upside in McDonald’s profile, though he has done a nice job of inducing ground balls at an elevated rate during each stop in the minors. He rates out as a FV 45 level player, which means he is likely to be a back-of-the-rotation innings eater while on a very friendly contract.
San Francisco remains one of the better pitching parks, and the matchup against the worst offense in baseball is the enticing factor, combined with the low DFS salary on the two-pitcher sites.
The Los Angeles Angels are the gift that keeps on giving, with RHP Michael Lorenzen the latest mediocre pitcher to set or tie a personal high with nine strikeouts last night. On that principle alone, RHP Jason Alexander is squarely in play. Houston is one game behind the Wild Card scrum with either Cleveland or Detroit will taking the American League Central title and the other fighting for the final playoff slot. Boston is two games ahead, though that is a tougher get with only three days left on the schedule.
The Astros are -145 road favorites, which does give Alexander a chance at the win bonus if he is the pitcher of record and holding the lead after five innings. In his last two games, the 32-year-old baseball nomad lasted 1.1 innings against Seattle and 4.2 against Texas. He has been somewhat of a good luck charm, with the ‘Stros winning nine of his last 10 starts, though he earned the bonus points in just three of those games.
Strikeouts are not part of Alexander’s repertoire, but he had five or more in six of his last 10 appearances, including a personal-best eight against the Colorado Rockies. The Angels have ample power and are putting up runs, but the strikeouts can help mitigate most things for opposing pitchers from a DFS viewpoint.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Athletics
We have seen how unkind Sutter Health Park has been this season to fly ball pitchers, and game-time temperatures will be in the low 80s with a light breeze out to right-center field. Cameron is a top prospect for Kansas City, and he is just inside the top 100 on most industry lists, projecting to be a low-end starter for years to come. He has a strong changeup and overall solid command, though against the loaded A’s lineup in this hitters haven, well, we want to be backing the bats.
The priority plays are righties Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, along with rookies Jack Wilson and Colby Thomas. Tyler Soderstrom can hold his own against fellow lefties, and rookie masher Nick Kurtz has above-average power when he connects in lefty-lefty matchups.
Looking to the other dugout, the Royals have a nice matchup against RHP Luis Morales, who got an early cup of coffee with his expected arrival time to The Show being in 2027. He has flashed upside but lacks experience, and going against a veteran lineup like Kansas City is a tough task in this hitter’s paradise. The Royals are eliminated, so we could see some regulars get a day off this series, though that will create openings and opportunities for lower DFS salary options.
Veteran Salvador Perez is sitting on 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, which is a testament to the 35-year-old adapting his skillset. Bobby Witt Jr. is two home runs and three stolen bases shy of a 25/40 season, which may have him going for steals through the weekend. Similarly, Maikel Garcia needs two more steals to reach 25, and we know how everyone likes these mini-milestones. This trio, along with Vinnie Pasquantino and rookie catcher Carter Jensen, are the core options to select from.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Texas Rangers
San Francisco is far from an offensive park, but with Marquez on the mound, the analytics are flashing green for Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman. That is the contrarian trio to target on the featured slate, while Jung Hoo Lee and Casey Schmitt emerge as options on the late slate.
For those who prefer a more traditional stacking matchup, then the Houston Astros in Anaheim against RHP Kyle Hendricks are a more popular way to go. There are enough teams in the player pool tonight that even though the ‘Stros are one of the most popular, they will still be carrying single-digit tournament representation.
Jesus Sanchez, Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have the best profiles against Hendricks’ offerings, with Yanier Diaz in play to fulfill the catcher requirements on DraftKings and Yahoo. Jose Altuve is always a recommended play, but skipping him on the late slate is a quick path towards differentiation from other Houston stacks.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.
Take a bet like Trevor Rogers to allow more than 2.5 runs tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
Rogers has been outstanding this season, getting his walks under control and allowing only three round-trippers in his 106.2 innings. He has been lucky with his career-low 1.35 ERA well under his 3.08 xERA, 2.42 FIP and 3.54 xFIP. This has mostly been the result of a ridiculous .231 batting average on balls in play. In his 382.1 innings prior to this year, he had a .316 batting average on balls in play, a 4.24 ERA, 4.38 xERA, 3.77 FIP and 4.11 xFIP. Staying under three earned runs in Yankee Stadium against a loaded lineup with the team battling for the top record in the American League is a tough task for even the best pitchers.
