MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Look to Tyler Glasnow and the BoSox Boppers! (Aug. 4)

Monday brings a new week, along with a nine-game MLB docket beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Our MLB DFS picks today are packed with value if you’re using the right tools. Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections spotlight the top stacks, elite pitchers, and high-upside plays that have the strongest ROI.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

Glasnow’s velocity on his fastball has been in the 96 to 97 mph range, which is in line with his last two seasons. His 29.5% strikeout rate since his return is on par with his April outings, and while it is below his phenomenal 32.7% rate from last year, it is still elite.

The top of the St. Louis order is solid, though far from daunting, particularly when considering the bottom of the lineup card presents a three-up, three-down spot with Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages and Victor Scott II. If Glasnow is able to navigate the likes of Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson, he should press for a quality start and at least half a dozen strikeouts.

Texas will be hosting the New York Yankees and LHP Max Fried tonight. The roof is likely to be closed in Arlington, which is a boost for pitchers. The Rangers have been dreadful against southpaws this season, with only Corey Seager and young Wyatt Langford providing consistent production. Another potential top-end option is LHP Yusei Kikuchi going against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have had a homefield boost to the offense all season at Steinbrenner Field. The team will be without Jonathan Aranda, who is on the injured list, and both on-base maven Yandy Diaz and speedster Chandler Simpson are day-to-day with nagging injuries. Ha-Seong Kim was activated after missing the first part of the season, and he has looked rusty. The team also traded away Jose Caballero and Curtis Mead, making the team a little weaker against southpaws.

The long-time Atlanta prospect saw his strikeout rate tick up to 25.1% from 24.1% last year while also lowering his combined isolated power from a .190 ISO to a still high, but tolerable .164 ISO. Soroka missed both 2021 and 2022 recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon, though aside from hard contact and an elevated home run rate, he was serviceable against mediocre offenses over the last two-plus seasons, pitching for Atlanta, the Chicago White Sox and most recently Washington.

The Cubs gave up two mediocre prospects to nab Soroka, who should benefit from a better defense behind him and, of course, one of the best offenses in the league providing run support.

Tonight it will be in the mid-70s at Wrigley Field, though the 8 to 12 mph breeze in from right field will certainly aid Soroka against southpaws at the plate. The Cincinnati offense is solid, but we need to remember the Reds are buoyed by calling Great American Ballpark home. If this game were in Cincy, Soroka would not have as good of a fantasy point-per-dollar ratio as he does tonight.

In New York, LHP Sean Manaea and the Mets are hosting the Cleveland Guardians, who have scored the fifth-fewest runs in the league this season. The team was better over the last 30 days, ranking seventh with nearly five runs per tilt, though it has struggled against southpaws this season.

If Manaea can contain the likes of switch-hitters Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana, as well as Angel Martinez and enigmatic Gabriel Arias, he should be in the mix for a quality start. Lefties Steven Kwan and Daniel Schneemann, plus switch-hitter Brayan Rocchio and backup catcher Austin Hedges, have combined for a sub-.050 ISO against southpaws this season, with the latter trio averaging a 30% strikeout rate. Yikes!

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox

Tonight will be the first appearance for LHP Bailey Falter after being acquired by the Royals for minor league infielder Callan Moss and bullpen arm Evan Sisk going to Pittsburgh as part of the exchange. The 28-year-old southpaw saw his strikeouts fall each of the last four seasons since becoming a full-time starter, with his hard-hit rate trending up. The current 15.3% strikeout rate, 7.0% swinging strike rate and 9.5% barrel rate are a flammable combination with his 54.5% hard-hit rate.

While the Boston outfield is crowded with left-handed batsmen, the Red Sox still have plenty of righties to take advantage of southpaws. Rob Refsnyder is a steal on DraftKings ($3,700) and FanDuel ($2,700) as the projected leadoff hitter. Carlos Narvaez is a tremendous catching option on DraftKings and Yahoo, while veterans Alex Bregman and Trevor Story are solid fantasy point-per-dollar options. Plus Ceddanne Rafaela’s heater continues, and switch-hitter Abraham Toro provides differentiation from the bottom of the order.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for this MLB DFS slate:

Late Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres

There are no easy outs among the Padres, which is likely to make this a long or short night for RHP Brandon Pfaadt, depending on one’s vantage point. The Chase Field roof will be closed this series, though that should not dissuade savvy gamers from loading up on the Friars. Power has been an issue this season, with lefties getting to Pfaadt for a .215 ISO and right-handed batsmen contributing an elite .188 ISO. The 26-year-old righty has a career-low 19.4% combined strikeout rate, and he has technically been lucky with a 5.11 ERA below his 6.29 xERA.

Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth both profile well against Pfaadt’s offerings, making them viable options. Stalwarts Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill remain the foundational building blocks for any San Diego stack, and it will be fun to see how this reshaped lineup helps protect the trio at the top with the new additions.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right information. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Tails By OddsShopper shines.

Take a bet like Sandy Alcantara under 4.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.

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Alcantara has never recaptured the magic that helped him earn the 2022 National League Cy Young Award, and missing all of last year has really put a damper on his production this season. He is averaging a career-low 6.69 strikeouts per nine innings with a 16.8% strikeout rate. He does project for 4.47 whiffs against the Astros, and he had four, four, two, four, four, four, four, five, six and four strikeouts in his last 10 starts. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, though the math favors the under at any odds of -119 or better.