MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 17
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Warren has issues with left-handed batsmen, though Los Angeles only has first baseman Nolan Schanuel and anemic Luis Rengifo, who presents almost no power. It is interesting that Warren still has a decent strikeout rate (27.8%) across his 388 MLB hitters faced, despite a low-ish 10.3% swinging-strike rate. His fastball sits in the low 90s, though he does have excellent secondary offerings with a sweeper and a slider. This has him ranked as the third-best New York prospect and just inside the top 75 for most industry lists. He was an eighth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft after playing four seasons at Southeastern Louisiana University.
The Angels have power against right-handed pitching, with the projected lineup boasting a .174 ISO, though that is accompanied by a 27.4% strikeout rate this season. Rengifo and Schanuel have the least power in the lineup, but each limits strikeouts. Rookie Christian Moore was just called up, and he projects to have a 28% to 30% strikeout rate. He was the eighth overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, coming out of Tennessee with a stellar power profile, though it will take a little time to develop in The Show.
That means the team is relying heavily on their top 3 prospects in Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer. Campbell is in a major dry spell, and Anthony has not popped yet in his brief time in The Show. Mayer has the best bat so far, but we are to be cautioned by the slim 54-plate appearance sample size.
So why are we not full speed ahead with Woo? Well, his current form has been dicey as each of his last three games resulted in two home runs for the opposition and just 12 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. In this stretch, the budding frontline starter had a 5.79 ERA, 6.61 FIP and 4.36 xFIP.
On the positive side of the ledger, Woo completed the sixth inning in all 13 of his starts. He is the second0most efficient starter in the league, with 14.10 pitches per inning, trailing only reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (14.06).
After a strong rookie season which resulted in 9.55 strikeouts per nine innings, Woo has slid down to a 7.64 per nine and a 21.7% strikeout rate over his last 203.2 innings. He is definitely in the mix tonight as a top consideration; it is just important to see the full picture with so many teams in action.
In San Francisco, LHP Robbie Ray will be taking on a Cleveland squad that has a hefty 25.1% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Stretching back to the start of last year, the projected lineup for the Guardians has been much better with a 17.1% strikeout rate, though that is overinfluenced by Steven Kwan (11.0%, 245 plate appearances), Jose Ramirez (10.0%, 249 PAs) and Carlos Santana (17.0%, 235 PAs).
The Ray-ller Coaster projects for 5.9 strikeouts, which is a tick below the 6.1 for Woo. Across his last nine starts, Ray allowed only one home run, and he earned eight quality starts in this stretch. San Francisco should have a good crowd tonight with Devers expected to make his Giants debut.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
Tonight the temperature at first pitch is going to be around 90 degrees in West Sacramento, and the righty-laden lineup for Houston is popping in the models against LHP JP Sears. Since the start of the 2023 season, Sears has ceded 77 home runs, which is the most in the league. He is also tied with Charlie Morton and Nick Lodolo at 34 hit by pitches, though to be fair, Sears has logged 37.1 more innings than Morton and nearly 200 more than Lodolo.
Over the last season-plus, Sears has allowed a .203 ISO against 878 right-handed batters, while fellow lefties have tagged him for a .173 ISO. It has been a rough go of things for Christian Walker, who has been dreadful this season with the platoon advantage, posting a .151 wOBA and a .033 ISO. He is 3-for-30 with one double in these situations. His final season in Arizona was not much better, but he was at least closer to league average. In 323 plate appearances between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Walker had a .276 ISO, which ranked eighth among qualified hitters in that timeframe.
The priorities at the top of the order are Isaac Paredes, Jose Abreu and Jeremy Pena. Switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini is a nice click on DraftKings and Yahoo to meet the backstop requirement, and Cam Smith is a solid discount dandy.
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Main Slate Tertiary Target: Athletics
The now 32-year-old is a real-life Crash Davis, having meandered through the minors for eight seasons. He punched his ticket to The Show in 2022 with Milwaukee — his third franchise at that time. He logged 71.2 innings that season across 11 starts and seven relief appearances. After that season, he suffered a rotator cuff injury and then spent time with Boston and the Athletics, starting in Triple-A for each organization.
The A’s released Alexander after a dreadful nine-run relief appearance against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Houston picked him up, and this will be his first start for the Astros. He has made four starts for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys with a 1.47 ERA and .247 batting average against, but that is a mirage when held up to his larger body of work.
Lefties are the priority, though same-handed batsmen were very productive against Alexander in his 77.2 career innings. Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker and Nick Kurtz are the core four, with Jacob Wilson and JJ Bleday not far behind. Max Muncy looks better on the late slate, as does infielder Max Schuemann.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Ray can be both a good play in DFS and also someone we can wager against getting to seven strikeouts. The 33-year-old southpaw recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. As detailed above, while Cleveland has struck out more this season against lefties, the projected lineup still has a strong two-year track record of limiting whiffs.
