MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Over the last seven games, the Pirates plated more than four runners only twice. Pittsburgh does rank 16th overall with 4.39 runs per game since the All-Star Break, though that drops to 3.55 when excluding the 30 runs in a three-game Coors Field Extravaganza. The projected lineup for the Bucs has struck out just 21.6% of the time against right-handed hurlers this season, but this motley crew has a pitiful .113 ISO.
Peralta’s strikeout rate has slipped from 27.6% last year to 25.9% this season; however, that still has him positioned well among the frontline starters across the league. Aside from Oneil Cruz, there are not many worrisome bats, even accounting for leadoff man Liover Peguero, switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds (who is much better against southpaws) and 38-year-old franchise legend Andrew McCutchen.
The concerns for Skenes, aside from the salary premium and equally difficult chance to collect the win bonus, is that Milwaukee has scored the second-most runs in the league since the Midsummer Classic with 6.22 per game, posting an 18-4 record in that time. Skenes is the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award, though it looks like the team is going to be content to have him stick with a soft cap of 95 or so pitches and six innings. It has been two months since Skenes saw action in the seventh inning, and he averaged just over 90 pitches across these 11 appearances.
The mustachioed maven is still in play for tournaments, but it is important to weight the outcomes against other top-end throwers such as LHP Carlos Rodon in Yankee Stadium against the meandering Minnesota Twins and RHP Jack Flaherty, who is in a get right spot in Chicago against the woeful White Sox.
Manny Machado is still terrifying with the platoon advantage, Jake Cronenworth has been effective in same-handed matchups, plus the addition of Ramon Laureano gives the Padres lineup some punch.
LHP Robbie Ray has a 25.7% strikeout rate this season, though it is important to call out that the projected lineup for San Diego is stellar in that category with a scant 14.1% collective strikeout rate against lefties.
Ray has performed well in his last three starts — in Pittsburgh and then a home-and-away set against the New York Mets. He is clearly in play on the featured slate for the large-field tournaments, though after digging into the matchup, we can see that it is not as favorable at first blush, with San Diego limiting strikeouts.
The discount dandies are not as appealing tonight as they were on Monday. RHP Ben Brown is on the road in Toronto, though the Blue Jays are stingy with strikeouts (13.5%) against righties.
The L.A. teams are squaring off in Anaheim, and RHP Emmet Sheehan at least has some strikeout potential against the Angles, along with the backing of the Dodgers offense. LHP Nestor Cortes will be making his second start for San Diego and his fourth appearance of the season, though it would be surprising to see him with more than 80 to 85 pitches after throwing 76 in his return from a four-month absence.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Hatch toiled with the Cubbies, not clearing Double-A until he was subsequently traded to Toronto. The Blue Jays gave him a cup of coffee, though he ultimately petered out and the team released him after the 2023 trade deadline. Two days later, Pittsburgh claimed him but released him in November, and he went to pitch in Japan. After one season with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, the NPB did not ask him to return, so he landed a deal in the KBO with the Doosan Bears. Ultimately, his Korean adventure was over before it started as he did not pass the physical.
Kansas City took a chance on the baseball vagabond, waiving him after one outing in The Show. That led to Minnesota claiming Hatch, which brings us to present day. It is hard to get a great read on Hatch with just 74.1 MLB innings, but considering his meandering course during his professional career, it is pretty safe to say that he is someone to target against as long as he remains in the league.
The Yankees are spendy, though that in concert with the expensive pitchers is going to keep their tournament presence low. The lineup literally runs nine-deep against righties, so there are plenty of ways to craft stacks built around the Bronx Bombers. Hatch had been fully stretched out in Triple-A with the Royals, though there is a chance the Twins could use an opener tonight. That should not dissuade anyone from focusing on the New York offense, as the Minnesota bullpen is in shambles with inexperienced youngsters and less-than-effective veterans.
For those seeking a cheap New York stack on DraftKings, Jasson Dominguez ($3,700), Ryan McMahon ($3,400) and catcher Austin Wells ($3,500) fit the bill, while each has the platoon advantage to boot.
Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Across three seasons in The Show, Mederos has just 12.1 innings of work to his credit. Over the last two years, he has 97.1 Triple-A innings, though he has been below average on his best days. Depending on how one views Mookie Betts, who continues to slump at the plate this season, the Dodgers run seven strong with the usual suspects, who we all know well at this point in the season.
Considering the expensive pitchers and bucks deluxe stack recommendations, there are a few discount dandies to highlight across DraftKings. Atlanta has been a mess this season, though Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies and Eli White won’t break the bank against RHP Clay Holmes, who allows a lot of balls in play. Jonathan India and Randal Grichuk are both playable in Kauffman Stadium against LHP Mitchell Parker and a dreadful Washington bullpen.
The Rangers are at home against RHP Anthony DeSclafani, with Josh Smith, Adolis Garcia, Rowdy Tellez and Joc Pederson all holding discounted salaries. The latter two are pinch-hit risks, though the Diamondbacks used two of three lefty relievers on Monday.
FanDuel continues to have soft pricing, so there are ample paths to roster construction without going too deep into the player pool. Things are tougher on Yahoo, but Christopher Morel, Abraham Toro, Thomas Saggese, and the Miami trio of Liam Hicks, Dane Myers and Eric Wagaman can all be had for $10 or less.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Nestor Cortes to record fewer than 4.5 strikeouts tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. With Tails, you can follow experts who provide tons of other +EV bets just like this. Upgrade to full Tails packages to join expert Discords, or check out the Free Picks page for daily updates.
