MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: Stack Tampa + Toronto on the Road! (June 29)

Sunday brings an 11-game featured-slate with a 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. You will want to register early on Yahoo, which is locking with the first game at 12:05 p.m. ET. As we review the MLB DFS picks for today, leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Sims optimizer and MLB DFS projections is the smartest way to uncover value. Whether you’re building the best MLB DFS stacks today, locking in top pitchers or rounding out your roster with high-upside value plays, using data-backed tools is key.

According to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the Tampa Bay Rays look good in Baltimore, along with the Orioles in hitting friendly Camden Yards, while the Toronto Blue Jays have merit in Boston, against RHP Walker Buehler. On the pitching front, Chad Patrick looks to follow an yesterday’s impressive performance by Quinn Priester against the Colorado Rockies in Milwaukee, with Spencer Strider, Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander as alternative tournament targets.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers

DraftKings has Patrick with a $1,100 premium compared to Priester, while FanDuel has Patrick $400 higher than his predecessor was yesterday. Patrick is a soon-to-be 27-year-old rookie, who was chosen in the fourth round of the 2021 MLB Draft, after four seasons at Purdue. He was selected by Arizona, then traded to the Athletics in 2023 at the deadline, then again in November of that year to Milwaukee for the well-travelled Abraham Toro. It is important to note that Patrick is the 24th ranked prospect for Milwaukee and he has a Future Value score of 40, which is marginal at best.

The Rockies have lost eight of their last nine games, scoring three or fewer runs five times in this stretch, with a scant eight combined runs in the last four games — which includes two tilts at Coors Field. Colorado has a league-low 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season and the current collection of batsmen is also last when including last year, with an 81 wRC+ in the full dataset. Weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes ball park effects, among other factors, creating a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100.

This means the Rox are scoring runs 23% less efficiently against righties this season when compared to league average, which for perspective is 46% worse than the Los Angeles Dodgers. The roster also has the highest strikeout rate against righties this year (27.1%) and dating back to the start of last year (26.1%).

Even with Patrick coming off a career-high nine strikeouts against Pittsburgh on Monday, this recommendation is all about the matchup, though the elevated salary on DraftKings and FanDuel are squeezing the potential profit upside.

The 26-year-old suffered an elbow injury at the beginning of last season, with the subsequent surgery and rehabilitation costing him a year. In his first five starts, Strider was around 95 mph on his fastball, down from his 97-to-98 mph range in 2023. Across his last three appearances, he is just above 96 mph, which is a positive indicator that he is getting back to full health.

Three starts ago, he collected 13 whiffs against Colorado, then he had 16 in home and away games against the New York Mets, in 11 total innings. His walks are a tick high and his groundball rate a touch low, but he has otherwise been solid.

The projected lineup for Philadelphia has a low 18.9% strikeout rate against righties this season, with some power upside, mostly concentrated with Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh. Bryce Harper (wrist) is still not ready to return to action, but he is getting closer.

Looking at the other options on the short list, LHP Framber Valdez is at home, though in a tough matchup against the Chicago Cubs. The top of the Northsiders lineup has the power and the strikeouts, while the latter portion has above-average contact rates against southpaws, though they struggle with producing extra-base hits. The Cubbies have a 3.7 implied team total, which shows that Valdez is definitely a tournament target.

In Chicago, RHP Justin Verlander gets the cherry matchup against the White Sox, with the 42-year-old likely to support a workload of 85-to-90 pitches. He missed a month with a pectoral strain, the returned to action with an 83 pitch effort against Cleveland, followed by an 86 pitch performance against Miami on Tuesday. The Pale Hose may have handed the baton for worst offense in the league to the Rockies, but this is still a woeful team to target with regularity.

MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays

This season, RHP Dean Kremer has a dreadfully low 18.8% strikeout rate, sliding from a below average 22.2% rate last season. This has him in the bottom 20% of all starting pitchers, with his 4.30 xERA and .270 xBA not much better. Lefties are his biggest concern, with a .205 ISO across 211 batters faced this season. That bodes well for Brandon Lowe (.299 ISO, 601 plate appearances), Jonathan Aranda (.201 ISO, 354 PAs) and Josh Lowe (.161 ISO, 458 PAs).

Kremer doesn’t exactly shut down same-handed batsmen, which means on-base maven Yandy Diaz and the power bat of Junior Caminero (.251 ISO, 354 PAs) can be employed in full-stacks.

The Orioles will be facing RHP Taj Bradley, who has posted a career-low 21.0% strikeout rate this season, well down from his 26.5% last year. He does have a career-best 49.6% groundball rate, though strikeouts had been his calling card during his first two MLB campaigns. The 24-year-old has been better away from Steinbrenner Field this season, but there is no reason to avoid the O’s this afternoon.

While Baltimore has disappointed, compared to lofty expectations, the team has still been solid against right-handed hurlers. Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holiday and Colton Cowser all have the platoon-advantage, making them the foundational pieces for any Orioles stacks. Ramon Urias is a discount dandy, if he is slotted in the two-hole again, with catcher Gary Sanchez carrying the load while Adley Rutschman is out of action. Ramon Laureano has become a complete hitter, so he too is yet another option from the Batters of Birdland.

Stokastic’s MLB DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a game-changing tool that transforms lineup construction through powerful, data-driven simulations — essential for serious DFS players. See how the Simulator analyzes this single lineup for today’s MLB DFS slate:

Main Slate Alternate Target: Toronto Blue Jays

Aside from that, he has been subpar in his 138.1 innings on either side of the playoffs. In this timeframe, he has a 5.79 ERA, 5.64 FIP and 4.56 xFIP, allowing a lofty 1.89 hme runs per nine innings, with a low 19.1% combined strikeout and high 46.6% hard hit rate.

The DraftKings salary algorithm has taken note of how good the matchup is for Toronto, though FanDuel is asleep at the switch once again. This has the Jays as a nice contrarian stack on the former, with the team holding a solid value rating on the blue site.

Look to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, a resurgent Bo Bichette and a surging Addison Barger as the foundational pieces for stacks. Alejandro Kirk is in play on DraftKings and Yahoo, to meet the pesky catcher requirement and outfield Nathan Lukes is a potential discount dandy if he lands on the lineup card.

Late Slate Quick Notes:

There are only two games this afternoon, with LHP Eduardo Rodriguez looking like the best pitching option, at home against the Miami Marlins. That makes things tricky on DraftKings, where gamers have to roster two pitchers, with the remaining options being RHP Jack Kochanowicz and LHP Mitchell Parker leading the Angels and Nationals on the field in Anaheim, with RHP Cal Quantrill having the tall order of holding the Diamondbacks in check.

Yahoo is including ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, which expands the pitching options with reigning American League Cy Young Award winner and current frontrunner LHP Tarik Skubal ($60) at home against the hapless Minnesota Twins (2.6 implied run total), with RHP Chris Paddack ($32) in play on the other side as an alternative to Rodriguez ($37), with a popularity discount.

Do not be afraid to roster a hitter or two against your pitcher on DraftKings and FanDuel, since it is unlikely they remain unscathed in the respective matchups. In Anaheim, this would include CJ Abrams and James Wood against Kochanowicz, and Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Jo Adell for the Halos against Parker. In the desert, Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman, Agustin Ramirez and Heriberto Hernandez are discount dandies, with the platoon advantage against Rodriguez, while the top half of the D’Backs lineup looks good for anyone bold enough to ride with Quantrill.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about making sharp MLB DFS picks, you already know that long-term success starts with using the right tools. The same approach applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Chad Patrick under 5.5 strikeouts. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet — meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. And with Portfolio EV, you’re not relying on one-off picks. You’re stacking dozens — even hundreds — of +EV wagers at scale using the Mass Entry tool, turning small edges into long-term profit.

Just like one DFS lineup won’t win you a GPP, one smart bet doesn’t build a bankroll. But a consistent process does. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks. It’s about making smart, data-backed decisions every day and letting the math do the heavy lifting.

in the DFS analysis above, we can see the merits for and against Patrick, who does project for a tick shy of six strikeouts this afternoon. The various sportsbooks are split, with a large portion offering the under on 6.5 strikeouts, but at a -145 to -165, which works out for a negative 4%-to-6% expected ROI. The other collection of operators is at the under 5.5 strikeouts figure, though offering +120 to +127, which is why the +152 stands out and projects for a 7.2% expect ROI when considering the range of outcomes on the field.