Monday Night Football brings the first doubleheader of the season, which also means the first two-game featured slate, one that will create ample opportunities across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down Monday Night Football DFS for Week 2 with the Buccaneers-Texans and Chargers-Raiders comprising the player pool. Let’s get ready by analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Monday Night Football Week 2 NFL DFS Picks
Tonight there will be six-plus hours of commercial-filled football, relegating the MLB playoff races to the shadow realm. The NFL is King, and nothing else is even close in the DFS world.
Quarterback NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 2: Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900
FanDuel: $8,100
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.74
FanDuel: 20.57
Justin Herbert has a median fantasy point projection that is almost 15% higher than anyone else in the player pool. That includes both DraftKings full-PPR and FanDuel half-PPR scoring formats.
In fact, on both of the main DFS sites, the quarterbacks have the highest median fantasy point projections, which is actually a little surprising. Speaking of surprises, did anyone see the Chargers leading the league at a 15% PROE (pass rate over expectation) in Week 1 with a first-round running back and Jim Harbaugh, plus Greg Roman, calling the shots?!
Herbert led Los Angeles to a 27-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL’s second game in Brazil. He racked up 318 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers while also adding 32 rushing yards on seven carries. Nine different pass-catchers saw targets, with five players getting rushing attempts. Things were concentrated among the starters, which does give Herbert clearer stacking options than some of his counterparts.
Looking at the free OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Herbert has -113 odds on over 252.5 passing yards, -116 for his over 17.5 rushing yards prop and -116 for over 1.5 passing touchdowns.
The Raiders allowed second-year signal-caller Drake Maye to roll up 287 yards, though he did attempt 46 passes. The team is not expected to have a daunting defensive secondary, with new head coach Pete Carroll likely to lean on his offense to take pressure off the defense. That bodes well for Herbert to be a foundational building block tonight.
Quarterback Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS
Looking at the rest of the position, Geno Smith has the second-highest median fantasy point projection, and while the NFL nomad is playing for a new team, he at least has plenty of familiarity with Carroll, who helped him break through when this duo was in Seattle. The biggest question mark for Smith tonight is not about how he will deal with the Los Angeles defense, but if his premier pass catcher Brock Bowers is available after suffering a knee sprain in the opener. He did not practice Thursday or Friday and was only “limited” on Saturday, so there is still concern that he may not suit up tonight.
That should not dissuade anyone from avoiding Smith, but it does have the potential to change the distribution of the passing attack. Indications are that he will play, though we know these situations tend to be viewed with rose-colored glasses.
C.J. Stroud did not look particularly effective in the opener against the Los Angeles Rams, recording only 188 passing yards and an interception, along with five carries for 32 yards on the ground. The Houston offensive line is a mess, and the running game is currently relying on a worn-down Nick Chubb with a cast of role players. That is going to make for a tricky situation against Todd Bowles’ defense, which will be looking to rebound after ceding 298 yards to Michael Penix Jr. in the opening game.
Stroud was sacked three times by the Los Angeles Rams, and the Texans allowed 54 sacks last year, which were the third most in the league. Fortunately, this game is in Houston, though that only takes the crowd out of the equation and not a ferocious Tampa Bay pass rush.
Baker Mayfield had only 167 passing yards in Week 1, but he had three touchdowns, with another 39 yards on the ground and no turnovers. The Texans did a good job of keeping Matthew Stafford in check, though tonight will be a tougher task as Mayfield is far more mobile.
- Herbert: Easy click.
- Smith: Slips below Mayfield if Bowers is out.
- Mayfield:Â Helming another fun offense. My, how his career has been transformed as the Tom Brady heir.
- Stroud: Shaky offensive line, anemic run game, proclivity for taking sacks and a revamped receiving corps … Yikes!
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Running Back NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 2: Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,000
FanDuel: $6,800
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.21
FanDuel: 15.51
Rookie Ashton Jeanty looked strong last week, racking up 19 of the 22 running back carries and both targets. Veteran Raheem Mostert was inactive, and Zamir White was only on the field for the nine plays that Jeanty was not.
The touches and playing time are his; now we just need to see him run for more than 2 yards per carry. He did have a touchdown and the Raiders pulled off the victory in New England, which had the team feeling good about all of the offseason changes.
In Brazil, Kansas City had 10 running back carries for 41 yards against the Chargers, though the Chiefs were trailing the entire game, and after two weeks, it is pretty clear that Isiah Pacheco is not effective, losing snaps to scrap-heap survivor Kareem Hunt. Jeanty has far more talent and juice than that duo, so he should be able to turn his volume into fantasy goodness tonight.
Running Back Positional Preview for Monday Night Football
Bucky Irving saw action on 44 (76%) plays, with Rachaad White on the field for 14 (24%) and Sean Tucker seeing two (3%) snaps. The Buccaneers have been pretty clear that they do not want to run Irving into the ground, though in close games he is likely to see a preponderance of the touches.
White should have more opportunities tonight, but it is hard to overlook the gap in talent. The Texans were solid against the run last year, and that looks to be holding true after the first week as well.
Tune into the Stokastic MNF Live Before Lock Show at 6 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.
Omarion Hampton was the 22nd overall selection in the most recent NFL Draft, and he was projected to share the Los Angeles backfield with former Pittsburgh Steeler stalwart Najee Harris. Unfortunately, Harris suffered an eye injury in a fireworks mishap, which kept him sidelined for most of training camp.
In the opener, Hampton was on the field for 52 (80%) snaps, while Harris earned 12 (18%) and Hassan Haskins got one offensive play. There were only three passes to running backs, with Hampton getting two and Harris one. Last year the Chargers running backs saw around three targets per game, which curbs the DFS appeal for Hampton.
Nick Chubb is a two-down back with a lot of mileage on his body, now being thrust into a primary role with Joe Mixon on the shelf. Injuries limited the former workhorse to just 10 games over the last two seasons after he earned four consecutive Pro Bowl nominations. The explosiveness is gone, which caps Chubb’s upside since he is unlikely to do much of anything, even if he gets a target or two. That makes him a “decimal back” who is going to need to score touchdowns to move the needle this season.
Dare Ogunbowale is the third-down back, with fourth-round rookie Woody Marks and former starter Dameon Pierce working in as well. Gamers building 10 or fewer lineups have no real need to roster any Houston running backs.
- Jeanty: Clear top option.
- Irving: Just a tick behind Jeanty.
- Hampton: Average receiver at best in college, though still more accomplished than Chubb.
- Chubb: Looking for one last hurrah.
- White: Next man up after a significant gap.
- Ogunbowale: Better on DraftKings in the full-PPR format.
- Harris: Hoping he falls into the end zone.
- Pierce: Needs Chubb to be ineffective or get hurt.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 2: Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,900
FanDuel: $6,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 14.21
FanDuel: 11.52
Veteran Jakobi Meyers is coming off a strong season that saw him with his first 1,000-yard campaign. He was looking for a new contract and potentially considered demanding a trade, though ultimately he is playing under his current deal. He did not want to be a distraction for his teammates and is hoping his play on the field will earn him a revised extension.
Amari Cooper was brought in by the team late in the preseason, though he ultimately decided to retire after only a few days with the franchise that drafted him fourth overall in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Meyers is a strong fantasy point-per-dollar play on DraftKings, and he will surge on FanDuel as well if we get word that Bowers is limited or out. The Raiders have enough offensive options, a veteran quarterback and a savvy coach, which help elevate Meyers over Nico Collins, and his popularity discount from Ladd McConkey provides tournament appeal.
Wide Receiver Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS
Collins is going to be getting the full attention of defenses this season, with Stefon Diggs now in New England and Tank Dell recovering from a gruesome knee injury that included a dislocated kneecap and all ligaments being torn, plus his meniscus. He may not be back this season, which is a shame since he also had a season-ending injury his rookie year.
Christian Kirk was signed in free agency, though he is out with a hamstring injury suffered at the end of training camp, leaving the team to rely on third-year wideout Xavier Hutchinson and his 22 career receptions, rookies and fellow Iowa State Cyclones Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, plus journeyman Justin Watson.
McConkey is the foundational play at this position, though so many rosters will be starting with him, Herbert and Jeanty that differentiation will be key. The budding superstar can play everywhere on the field, but with Keenan Allen back in the fold after a one-year respite in Chicago, the slot role is a little crowded.
Herbert knows what he is doing and focused his efforts on Allen (10 targets), McConkey (9) and enigmatic Quentin Johnston (7). That left eight looks for the rest of the team, making it easy to see the pecking order for Los Angeles.
Mike Evans is looking to extend his streak of 1,000-yard seasons to 12, and while the future Hall of Famer doesn’t have his wingman Chris Godwin, rookie Emeka Egbuka was solid in the opener. Though we should not expect many more multi-touchdown games, it is going to be an embarrassment of riches at this position with Godwin likely to return in October.
Jalen McMillan suffered a neck injury that is likely to keep him out of commission for the first half of the season and potentially longer. That opened the door for Sterling Sheppard to see six targets, tying Egbuka for second, while Evans led the way with eight.
- Meyers: Best bang for our buck.
- McConkey: He will get his this season.
- Allen: Great rapport with Herbert.
- Collins: Lone bright spot on offense, attracting ample attention from the defense and gamers who are not rostering McConkey.
- Evans and Egbuka: The $1,000 savings on DraftKings and $1,300 discount on FanDuel keep Egbuka on par with Evans.
- Johnston: Should be better now that he is the third option and getting weaker coverage from defenses.
- Sheppard: Enjoy the $3,100 tag on DraftKings.
- Tre Tucker and Dont’e Thornton Jr.: Dart throws who would get a little bump if Bowers were out.
- Higgins, Hutchinson, Noel and Watson: Lottery tickets at best; good luck figuring out which one .
Tight End NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 2: Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,300
FanDuel: $7,100
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 15.16
FanDuel: 12.21
Bowers had the best rookie season for any tight end in NFL history. The sport has evolved, and there are more games in a season than when Mike Ditka put up 1,076 yards in 1961 in only 14 games. Ditka also ranked fifth with 56 receptions, adding the fourth-most yards, and his 12 touchdowns were second overall.
Bowers played in all 17 games, tallying 153 targets (6th), 112 receptions (3rd), 1,194 yards (8th) and five touchdowns. His 112 catches easily crushed the 86 by Sam LaPorta in his rookie year; plus shout out to Keith Jackson, who had 81 as a rookie in 1988. Travis Kelce still has the best all-around season, with his 2022 campaign seeing him collect 152 targets, 110 receptions, 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. It would not be a surprise to see Bowers increase his yards and touchdowns to take that crown in the next couple of years.
Putting all this information up front is key since it would be wild for the Raiders to let Bowers play if he is not close to 100% effectiveness. He probably will have a knee brace on tonight, though ideally that will mostly be for precautionary reasons.
If Bowers is out, then Michael Mayer will become the best discount dandy on the board, with the 35th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft no slouch himself. In the opener, it looked like Dalton Schultz was actually behind Cade Stover, though Stover broke his foot on the last drive of the game and is going to be out for a while. Schultz has started 22 of 33 games with the Texans, as the team went with more three-wideout looks in 2023 and Brevin Jordan was the blocking tight end. Last year it was Stover supplanting Jordan, though Schultz easily led the position with 85 targets to the 22 of Stover and three for Jordan.
Cade Otton is the lead tight end for Tampa Bay, seeing the field for 86% of the offensive action, with Payne Durham, Ryan Miller and Ko Kieft sprinkling in for 32 combined snaps. Though he had only three targets in Week 1, he was second on the team last year and had the fourth-most looks in 2023, helping pick up the slack due to injuries to Evans, Godwin and McMillian.
- Bowers: Fingers-crossed he avoided serious injury.
- Schultz:Â Strong option considering the lack of competition in Houston.
- Otton: Should not be forgotten.
- Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin: Even the announcers got them mixed up last Friday.
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