NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: De’Aaron Fox Looks Great in Matchup with Pacers (January 18)

The NBA is back with a five-game slate on Thursday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include De’Aaron Fox and Collin Sexton.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — De’Aaron Fox: Indiana Pacers-Sacramento Kings

De’Aaron Fox has been a feature in this article recently, and he’s again the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,100. Fox comes in averaging 28.0 points, 5.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.0 steals/blocks per game, and he continues to establish himself as one of the top young point guards in the NBA. After a recent six-game stretch in which he saw his numbers start to dip, Fox has bounced back in a big way with back-to-back monster performances against the Bucks and Suns. Despite his nightly production, the field is struggling to prioritize Fox tonight, and he’s the highest-graded leverage play on the entire slate.

As of this writing, Fox is projected to be in only 9.30% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 16.20%, however, it makes sense why Fox looks so good from a leverage perspective. Pacers-Kings is definitely worth exposure, and Fox has emerged as arguably the top tournament play on the board in both large-field and small-field GPPs.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Collin Sexton: Oklahoma City Thunder-Utah Jazz

Collin Sexton is DraftKings’ top contrarian mid-tier play at $6,200. Sexton has been really productive in his second season in Utah, and he is averaging 37.95 DraftKings points over the past four games. While this is a small sample size, Sexton is clearly in good form right now and he’s not getting nearly the love he should be getting on DraftKings.

Sexton is projected to be optimal 15.50% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, yet the field isn’t getting to him at nearly this rate, as only 10.90% of lineups are projected to roster him. He sits behind only Fox as the second-highest-graded leverage play on the slate, and Sexton’s affordable $6,200 price tag makes it easy to get over the field on him in tournaments of all sizes.

Contrarian Value — Thaddeus Young: Chicago Bulls-Toronto Bulls

Thaddeus Young is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,900. Since being dusted off Toronto’s bench as a result of Jakob Poeltl getting hurt, Young has acclimated himself well back into the Raptors rotation. And those minutes in the Raptors frontcourt have opened up even more now that Pascal Siakam has been traded.

Similar to Sexton, Young isn’t getting completely forgotten about tonight, but the field still isn’t rostering him at close to the rate it should be. He is currently the third-highest-graded leverage play on the slate, but Young is projected for modest 15.90% ownership on DraftKings compared to a 20.30% optimal percentage. With his cheap price tag as well, Young gives you plenty of options up top with your lineup builds.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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