NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Jrue Holiday Going Overlooked (January 29)

The NBA has a monster 11-game slate on Monday, and using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, we are going to break down the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings. Tonight’s top picks include Donovan Mitchell and Jrue Holiday.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Donovan Mitchell: Los Angeles Clippers-Cleveland Cavaliers

In what sets up as potentially the game of the night in the NBA, the red-hot Clippers travel to Cleveland to face the surging Cavaliers. Although this game isn’t overly appealing from a DFS perspective, Donovan Mitchell is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,700. He comes in averaging 27.7 points, 6.1 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game, and Mitchell continues to be a top-15 asset in the fantasy basketball landscape. Despite his nightly production, the field isn’t prioritizing Mitchell at all on DraftKings.

Mitchell is projected to be only 3.70% owned on DraftKings, yet his optimal percentage is strong at 8.10%. While there’s some opportunity cost in rostering Mitchell and not one of the other studs in his price range, he has slate-breaking upside every time he steps on the court. It is definitely worth getting over the field on him in tournaments of all sizes.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Jrue Holiday: New Orleans-Milwaukee Bucks

Jrue Holiday’s price tag has fallen to the point where he looks like one of the stronger value plays on DraftKings. Despite his salary, the masses are mostly avoiding Holiday, and he has emerged as the top differentiator in the mid-tier.

Holiday is currently projected to be optimal 10.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The field isn’t getting to him at nearly this rate, however, as Holiday is only projected to be in 5.80% of lineups. With Boston mostly healthy in the backcourt and on the wings, Holiday might be priced correctly for his median outcome, but he’s way too cheap for his upside on any given night.

Contrarian Value — Trendon Watford: Utah Jazz-Brooklyn Nets

Trendon Watford is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,000. With Dorian Finney-Smith and Day’Ron Sharpe both out for Brooklyn, Watford is expected to get some run in the Nets frontcourt and the field is completely ignoring him on DraftKings.

Watford is projected to be only 1.90% owned on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 12.60%, Watford stands out as one of the better leverage plays we’ve had in a while. Now, these numbers tend to even out as the slate becomes more defined, Watford clearly looks good from a leverage perspective at the flat $3,000. He’s only projected for 14.36 fantasy points, but what he offers is a lot of lineup flexibility.

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Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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