NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Look to the Spurs for Contrarian Pieces (January 10)

The NBA is back with an eight-game slate on Wednesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including Victor Wembanyama and Keldon Johnson.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Victor Wembanyama: San Antonio Spurs-Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $8,900. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 19.3 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 4.5 stocks per game, Wembanyama has already established himself as one of the premier young players in the NBA at only 20 years old. Despite a minutes restriction after hurting his ankle on Dec. 23, Wembanyama has continued his dominant ways, as he is putting up 48.08 DraftKings points over his past five games. Although his upside is obvious at $8,900, the field is hesitant to spend up on Wembanyama, as he doesn’t project well from a median outcome standpoint.

As of this writing, Wembanyama is projected to be optimal 7.10% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. While that number would certainly be higher if not for the minutes restriction, Wembanyama still isn’t getting nearly enough love, as only 4.00% of lineups are expected to roster him. Matched up with a Detroit team that just gave up 77 DraftKings points to Domantas Sabonis, Wembanyama has monster upside tonight, and it is worth getting over the field on him in both large-field and small-field tournaments.

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Contrarian Mid-Tier — Keldon Johnson: San Antonio Spurs-Detroit Pistons

Sticking with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson is DraftKings’ top contrarian mid-tier play at $7,000, as he finds himself in the same dream spot that Wembanyama is in: A Pistons front court that routinely gets dominated by opposing wings and big men. With Wembanyama now the Spurs’ No. 1 option, Johnson hasn’t been asked to do as much this season, so his game-by-game production has been pretty up and down. Despite this, Johnson’s upside hasn’t changed, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.

Johnson is currently projected to be only 6.70% owned on DraftKings but has a strong 12.80% optimal percentage. Like Wembanyama, Johnson is expensive for his median outcome in this spot but has slate-winning upside at $7,000, as evidenced by the 51.3 DraftKings points he dropped on the Trail Blazers less than two weeks ago.

Contrarian Value — Marcus Morris Sr.: Philadelphia 76ers-Atlanta Hawks

Marcus Morris Sr. is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $4,100. With Joel Embiid still out, there are plenty of minutes up for grabs in the 76ers frontcourt, and Morris is a logical candidate to get extra run. While he doesn’t look quite as good as he did last time out when Philadelphia was missing both Embiid and Tobias Harris, Morris’ cheap $4,100 price point provides plenty of margin for error.

Although Morris is never exciting to roster, Stokastic’s tools have him optimal 10.80% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The field is completely missing the boat, however, as Morris is only projected to be 2.90% owned. While these numbers can certainly change as we get more news leading up to lock, Morris currently grades out as one of the best leverage plays on a slate, and the opportunity cost is small at only $4,100.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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