NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Build Around Miles and Mikal Bridges (March 13)

We’re back with another seven-game NBA slate on Wednesday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Miles Bridges and Mikal Bridges. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, March 13

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Hornets-Grizzlies: Miles Bridges

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.50%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800

Miles Bridges has yet to appear in this article this season, but he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings tonight at $8,800. Coming into this evening’s action averaging 39.5 fantasy points per game, Bridges has re-emerged as a key piece of Charlotte’s future after sitting out all of last season. With Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward gone and LaMelo Ball sidelined, Bridges and Brandon Miller have become the clear focal points of the Hornets’ offense. As a result of his stellar performance this season, Bridges rarely falls through the cracks on DraftKings. With a rising price tag, however, the field is sleeping on him in a big way tonight.

Bridges is projected to be in just 4.30% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 8.50%, it’s clear why Bridges stands out as one of the best plays on the slate from a leverage perspective.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Nets-Magic: Mikal Bridges

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 13.70%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,900

Sticking with the theme of M. Bridges, Mikal Bridges grades out as the second-highest leverage play on the DraftKings, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play at $6,900 price. Bridges has undoubtedly struggled in his first full season in Brooklyn, but those struggles are now baked into a price tag that is $600 less than his average salary on DraftKings this season. Although Bridges finds himself in a tough matchup in Orlando against the Magic, he’s coming off his best performance in over a month, as the former Villanova star dropped 46.8 DraftKings points in an equally tough spot against the Cavs. Despite his clear value at a falling price tag, the field isn’t getting to Bridges at nearly the rate they should be.

Bridges averages 35.6 fantasy points per game on the season, but he’s been much more of a boom/bust type GPP player than he ever has been in years past. Embracing that volatility is key in GPP’s, and Bridges has emerged as one of the best tournament plays on the slate.

Bridges is projected to be in just 8.20% of lineups but has a 13.70% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his overall inconsistencies, Bridges has massive upside at $6,900, and he’s clearly worth getting over the field on in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Cavalies-Pelicans: Isaiah Mobley

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 4.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,000

It’s always nice to be able roster players at the flat $3,000 with positive leverage, and Cavs forward Isaiah Mobley fits that bill on DraftKings. Although no one will argue that the older Mobley isn’t more solid than spectacular, he stands out in a big way from a leverage standpoint for DFS purposes.

Although he’s not even sniffing the Cavs’ rotation when everyone is healthy, Mobley has gotten decent run the past two games as Cleveland continues to be hit hard by the injury bug. Regardless of how many minutes he plays, Mobley is still highly unlikely to put up a score that’s needed to win tournaments. His $3,000 price tag, however, opens up paths to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.

Despite projecting for just 11.75 fantasy points, Stokastic’s tools currently have Mobley optimal 4.20% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.00% of lineups projected to roster him, Mobley offers a decent amount of leverage without much opportunity cost.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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