NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Draymond Green & Chimezie Metu (March 22)

We’re back with an eight-game NBA slate on Friday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Tyrese Maxey and Draymond Green. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, March 22

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

76ers-Bucks: Tyrese Maxey

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700

Tyrese Maxey is currently the odds-on favorite to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings tonight at $8,500. Coming into this evening’s action averaging 43.4 DraftKings points per game, Maxey has been instrumental in keeping the 76ers afloat without the services of Joel Embiid. As a result of his stellar play, Maxey rarely falls through the cracks on DraftKings. Coming off his worst game of the season, however, the field is uninterested in building around him, despite a favorable matchup against the Lakers.

As of this writing Maxey is projected to be optimal 11.80% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 7.80% of lineups expected to roster him, Maxey is the top spend up to be contrarian play on the slate.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pacers-Warriors: Draymond Green

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 15.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,500

Draymond Green is the second-highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,500. Although Green has been more solid than spectacular this season, he’s got massive upside on any given night, and his ceiling is sky-high in a matchup with the defenseless Pacers.

Despite clear signs of value at $6,500, Green is only projected to be in 10.70% of lineups on DraftKings. Compare that to his 15.40% optimal percentage and it makes sense why Stokastic’s tools have him as the second-highest graded leverage play on the slate.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Celtics-Pistons: Chimezie Metu

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 4.60%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,700

We’re back to dumpster diving for cheap differentiators, and newly minted Piston Chimezie Metu is the catch of the day at $3,700. Metu was decently productive in limited run in Phoenix earlier this season, and the former Florida State Seminole now finds himself on a Pistons team that has been hit hard by the injury bug. Despite only projecting for 17.05 fantasy points, Metu stands out in big way from a leverage perspective, as he currently ranks as one of the highest graded leverage plays on the board.

As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Metu optimal 4.60% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.40% of lineups projected to roster him, it’s worth getting over the field on him in large field GPP’s.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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