NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Look to Memphis for Tournament Differentiators (March 18)

We’re back with another NBA slate on Monday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Jaren Jackson Jr. and Oshae Brissett. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, March 18

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Grizzles-Kings: Jaren Jackson

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings. Like pretty much every player on the Grizzlies’ roster, Jackson Jr. has been in and out of Memphis’ lineup this season as the big man has been hampered by multiple injuries. When he’s been on the court, however, JJJ has been an elite fantasy producer, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight in a matchup with the Kings.

Coming into tonight’s action averaging 37.9 DraftKings points per game, Jackson Jr. has steadily seen his play improve since the calendar turned to 2024. With no Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart and a host of other rotation players for Memphis, Jackson Jr. has had to put this team squarely on his back. While the results have been inconsistent, his upside on any given night is massive, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.

As of this writing, Jackson Jr. is projected to be in just 3.40% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 8.80%, it makes sense why Jackson grades out so well from a leverage perspective.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Grizzlies-Kings: Jordan Goodwin

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 10.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,000

Sticking with the Grizzlies, point guard Jordan Goodwin is second-highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. As such, he’s the clear top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,000.

With the majority of ownership on this slate going to players from Sacramento and Cleveland, Goodwin is getting forgotten about in DFS. He is projected to be in just 2.50% of lineups but has a 10.30% optimal percentage. While these numbers tend to even out as we get more news closer to lock, Goodwin undoubtedly stands out as one of the best differentiators on the slate.

His floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to the volatility of the Grizzlies, but Goodwin has real upside at $5,000, and he’s clearly worth getting over the field on in tournaments of all sizes.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pistons-Celtics: Oshae Brissett

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 16.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,400

Oshae Brissett is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he currently stands out as one of the better leverage plays we’ve seen all season. Again, these numbers can change drastically as we get closer to lock, so make sure to watch the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock to stay up on all relevant news.

Although Brissett is usually just a fringe rotation piece when everyone is healthy, he’s in line to play a much bigger role tonight as Boston could potentially be without four rotation players. After playing 29 minutes on Sunday against Washington, it’s logical to think Brissett fills in again tonight in another cake spot against the Pistons.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Brissett optimal 16.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 3.80% of lineups projected to roster him, Brissett is an easy way to get different without sacrificing much opportunity cost given his cheap price tag.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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