NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Luka Doncic Somehow Being Forgotten (February 27)

The NBA is back with a monster nine-game slate on Tuesday that tips off at 7 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Luka Doncic and Lonnie Walker IV. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, February 27

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Mavericks-Cavaliers: Luka Doncic

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 5.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000

Luka Doncic at low ownership is a rare treat, as he’s averaging a league-high 65.2 fantasy points per game. Doncic finds himself in a tough matchup against a Cavaliers team that continues to be excellent defensively, and while Doncic’s median outcome is lower in this spot than it otherwise normally would be, he has proven to be matchup-proof. Plus, despite his slate-breaking upside, the field isn’t getting to him at all on DraftKings.

Doncic is projected to be in just 2.10% of lineups on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is 5.80%, making him currently the best “spend up to be contrarian” play on the slate.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pistons-Bulls: Andre Drummond

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 13.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,200

NBA DFS legend Andre Drummond currently grades out as the second-best leverage play on the slate, and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments at a falling $5,200 price tag. Although Drummond has more volatility in his minutes than almost any other player in the league, he’s always been extremely productive when he’s on the court, and he’s $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he was two weeks ago. While Drummond is far from the safest play in the world, the risks are now baked into his price tag.

Though there are numerous signs pointing to value here, Drummond is severely underowned on DraftKings. He is projected to be in just 7.70% of lineups but has a 13.80% optimal percentage.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Nets-Magic: Lonnie Walker IV

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 16.50%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,900

Lonnie Walker IV is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. While he’s usually just a fringe rotation piece when the Nets are fully healthy, Walker has shown himself to be fully capable of playing big minutes when other players are out. With Cam Thomas hurt and Ben Simmons resting, Walker should firmly be in Brooklyn’s backcourt rotation tonight, and he’s emerged as one of the top value plays on DraftKings at $3,900. Despite his clear utility at a cheap price tag with both shooting guard and small forward eligibility, Walker is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.

Walker projects for only 20.90 fantasy points tonight, but Stokastic’s tools currently have him optimal 16.50% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, yet only 5.30% of lineups are projected to roster him.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock with on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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