NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Swimming in the Contrarian Poole (February 23)

Coming off a wild Thursday night in the Association, the NBA returns with another six-game slate on Friday that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Bam Adebayo and Jordan Poole. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, February 23

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Heat-Pelicans: Bam Adebayo

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 12.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400

Coming off his first career All-Star start, Bam Adebayo enters tonight’s action averaging 20.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.1 stocks per game. As the Heat look to make a strong second half run, Adebayo continues to establish himself as one of the best young centers in the NBA. Despite his nightly production, however, he is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.

Adebayo is projected to be in just 6.80% of lineups on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is 12.30%, making him one of the best differentiators on the slate and an elite tournament building block at $8,400.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Wizards-Thunder: Jordan Poole

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500

Jordan Poole is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. Poole’s first year in Washington has been marred by struggles and inconsistencies, and it reached a new low point on Thursday when he came off the bench for the first time all year. He still played 30 minutes in a blowout loss to Denver, yet the masses are spooked by Poole right now, and the field has little interest in prioritizing him at $5,500 on DraftKings tonight.

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Poole is a forgotten man on DraftKings and grades out as the clear top leverage play on the board. He is projected to be in just 4.50% of lineups but has an 11.90% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to minutes uncertainty in his new bench role, Poole’s upside is massive at $5,500, and embracing that volatility is vital in GPPs.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Clippers-Grizzlies: Derrick Rose

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 5.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,900

We’re back to dumpster diving for contrarian value, and Derrick Rose is the catch of the day on DraftKings at $3,900. With DraftKings doing away with the four 10:00 p.m. EST games, value is at a premium on the main slate, and Rose stands out as the best cheap differentiator on the board. Plus, his $3,900 price tag offers windows to roster construction that the majority of the field won’t be able to open.

Rose projects for only 15.89 fantasy points tonight, but Stokastic’s tools currently have him optimal 5.30% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.00% of lineups projected to roster him, it’s clear why Rose looks so good from a leverage perspective.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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