Wednesday has a robust nine-game featured slate, with the NBA action getting underway at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including Anthony Davis and whoever is starting at point guard for Dallas, plus Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson and the Clippers Big Three in play as the teams square off in Atlanta. These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, December 3
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Anthony Davis: Mavericks vs. Heat
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 45.43 | FanDuel: 45.87
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 28.1% | FanDuel: 4.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,400
Tonight there will be a flurry of nonstop news with the nine games on the docket tipping off in waves every half hour until 8:30 p.m. ET. San Antonio, Portland and New York are each on the second leg of a back-to-back, while Brooklyn travels back home from Chicago to host the Utah Jazz tomorrow.
Anthony Davis played twice after returning from a 14-game absence due to a strained calf. He did skip the second leg of this weekend’s back-to-back, playing 28.3 minutes on Friday and then logging 32.5 on Monday. He looked good in leading Dallas to a 131-121 victory in Denver, posting 32 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and a trio of stocks (combined steals and blocks).
Clearly, the salary algorithms for DraftKings and FanDuel took different approaches, with The Brow a strong option on the former and a differentiation play on the latter. He has a median minutes projection of 29.1, though based on Monday’s matchup, he could see a few more ticks in a competitive game.
Dereck Lively II (foot) is out for at least another week if not two, but PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are questionable, having missed the last two games with their respective ankle issues. If either is out, then Naji Marshall will become an appealing option, though he is irrelevant if both players return.
Rookie Ryan Nembhard started the last three games, averaging 26.3 minutes with a scorching 67% conversion rate on his 33 field goal attempts in this stretch. He averaged 17.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 0.3 steals, playing 23.3, 20.8 and 34.8 minutes, with his 12-for-14 (86%) performance helping the shorthanded Mavericks topple the Nuggets. This coincided with Brandon Williams returning to a reserve role, so it will be interesting to see how coach Jason Kidd handles the point guard position going forward since that will influence the popularity for whichever of this duo is with the first five.
Rounding out the Mavs, Cooper Flagg has some appeal on FanDuel, as does Washington. Neither projects for double-digit popularity on DraftKings. Turning our attention to the Heat, Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo are in play on the blue site, while Davion Mitchell joins Adebayo on DraftKings.
Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Hawks vs. Clippers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 37.03 | FanDuel: 35.73
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 22.5% | FanDuel: 42.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $6,500
Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s popularity is running a little hot in the early projection run, though he was outstanding in the 15 games he played since Trae Young was sidelined. In this stretch, NAW has proven that he can be a consistent scorer averaging 21.7 points per game, along with 3.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.8 stocks while playing excellent defense.
The last three games were particularly impressive as the NBA nomad scored 30, 34 and 26 points. The 34-point effort was in double overtime, though his 38 points in San Antonio two weeks ago came in regulation. In his career, Alexander-Walker had 30-plus points in eight games, three of which were during the last fortnight.
Jalen Johnson has a five-figure salary on both DraftKings ($10,100, 20.1%) and FanDuel ($10,200, 25.5%), though he is still projecting to be well represented in tournaments. Injuries cut short most of his four seasons, but for the fifth consecutive year, the 24-year-old has increased his scoring average, currently up to 23.2 points per game. He also is averaging 10.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals, tying last year’s personal marks, accompanied by a giant leap to 7.3 assists per game. He looks like an All-Star and also is an excellent defender.
Need help getting started with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims? Check out all of these FREE resources before making NBA DFS picks today!
- How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
- How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
- NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
- NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
- NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
- NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy
Kristaps Porzingis is dealing with an illness, playing in just three of the last nine games as his most recent appearance came before Thanksgiving. This led to more playing time for Onyeka Okongwu, though tonight will be a tough rebounding matchup against Ivica Zubac. Okongwu is posting personal-best averages in most categories, and depending on how much time Porzingis misses, he should have a complete sweep of the pertinent categories. Dyson Daniels also stepped up with Young out, though he is nearly unplayable on DraftKings ($7,200, 4.1%) but in the mix on FanDuel ($7,100, 17.2%), where blocks and steals are awarded 3 fantasy points.
Last night, the Los Angeles Clippers parted with Chris Paul, sending the 40-year-old back to California. Overall this was a bit odd, considering Paul’s stature among the fanbase and that he had already acknowledged this would be his last season in the league, plus he had no trouble coming off the bench. Yes, his numbers are down, but he was mostly on the court for the minutes that James Harden was resting, playing alongside him occasionally.
General manager Lawrence Frank issued a statement, saying this move was not on Paul and that he took responsibility for the team struggling with a 5-16 record, having lost 14 of the last 16 games. This will hardly move the needle on the court since CP3 was playing around 14 minutes per game off the bench, but it is not like he was blocking a younger player from getting run, nor is this move going to motivate a very veteran team. There will probably be more that comes out on this and friction behind the scenes, but it does seem a little silly. Back to DFS …
Kris Dunn may pick up some lead-guard minutes when Harden is off the court, along with some combination of Jordan Miller, Cam Christie or Kobe Sanders. Keep in mind that Derrick Jones Jr. and Bogdan Bogdanovic are hurt and Bradley Beal (hip) is done for the year. Again, very odd to make this decision now since all it does is attract more attention to how poorly things have been going for the last several weeks in yet another lost season for the cursed franchise.
For DFS tournament, Zubac, Harden and Kawhi Leonard are all in play as secondary targets. Zubac is back to heavy minutes, Harden is continuing his late-career evolution and Leonard should push for 20 field goal attempts in this 28 to 30 minutes per game while healthy. John Collins gets a “Remember Me?!” game, though more importantly, he is getting a few minutes as the nominal center, when Zubac and Nicolas Batum are on the bench. Brook Lopez did not play in the last four games, and at this point it is likely he will ride the pine unless something happens to another frontcourt player.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take a bet like Myles Turner to have fewer than 5.5 rebounds tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.
Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Turner is currently listed at Hard Rock at +100 for under 5.5 rebounds, with popular books like DraftKings and Onyx offering a punitive -145 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 8.3% expected ROI, while Hard Rock is a positive 8.5%, based on the “true odds” of -119. Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.
Tonight Turner will be battling with Jalen Duren, who is second in the league at 11.8 rebounds per game, plus teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is fifth with 10.7 per game. Detroit has the fifth-best rebounding rate as a team, and given Turner’s inconsistent minutes, there is a good chance he will fall shy of the six rebounds needed for this wager to lose. He corralled at least six errant caroms in 14 of his 22 (64%) of his games this season, which is why getting the even money on Hard Rock is crucial.
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