NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Austin Reaves and Midwest Magic! (Dec. 5)

Friday’s featured NBA DFS action tips off at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into the best NBA DFS picks today, including potential value options from Chicago and Indiana, along with Austin Reaves, Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr. and more! These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.

NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, December 5

NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

James’ incredible streak of 1,297 games with double-digit points ended as he had only 8 last night, but at this point of history, it is unlikely anyone will ever come close to that mark, which was 19 years in the making. Michael Jordan had the second-longest streak, though his 866 pale in comparison to James. The next three longest active streaks are Kevin Durant (267), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (170) and Luka Doncic (133). Speaking of Doncic, his availability is also unknown as he was back in Slovenia for the birth of his second child. If either is out tonight, Reaves will see his median fantasy point projection push north of 50 fantasy points, and if both are out, then he is a borderline must-play, with the sizeable player pool expected to mint several discount dandies as injury reports are released throughout the day.

Jaylen Brown missed his first game of the season last night due to “illness” that was more of a strategic rest spot in Washington, and Boston crushed the Wizards 146-101. If Brown is back with the first five, he is a strong option as Los Angeles is not exactly filled with defensive stalwarts and is likely to be down two starters. If Brown were to miss again, then Payton Prichard and Derrick White would become solid clicks in all formats.

Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura are in play if both James and Doncic are out, though it is likely they will be surpassed by better fantasy point-per-dollar plays leading up to lock.

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Even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, this game is essentially a pick’em with both Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. intriguing tournament targets. After being injured in the opener, Porter ramped up from 24.5 to 31 to 35.2 minutes in his three games back. During his absence, Rollins effectively usurped him in the starting lineup, showing that he could in fact be a solid scorer with 17.9 points per game while running the offense (5.9 assists) and playing solid on-ball defense (1.6 steals). Rollins saw his salary slide with the return of Porter, though he has a more favorable cap hit on FanDuel.

Porter in turn is far more appealing on DraftKings ($6,600, 57.1%) than FanDuel ($6,800, 17.9%), even with the blue site also including the lone late game tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET as the Oklahoma City Thunder are 15.5-point home favorites against the visiting Dallas Mavericks.

Be sure to tune in to the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-the-minute injury reports and DFS analysis. Tournament strategies for both the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will be discussed.

Myles Turner is a neutral option even with Antetokounmpo out since he tends to not be overly impacted by his Greek teammate. Turner should have a clearer path to rebounds with Antetokounmpo and Embiid off the court, though that is a mercurial part of his game, and Andre Drummond is still one of the best rebounders in the league when he is on the court.

Tyrese Maxey is a tick above Cade Cunningham for their median fantasy point projection, with both players nearly 15 points behind Nikola Jokic on DraftKings and a dozen back on FanDuel. Other players could enter the conversation for the 76ers, depending on the availability of George. Jokic is always a priority target, and he will likely settle into a 10% to 15% tournament representation range.

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• How to Use NBA DFS Sims: Expert Strategy Guide, Tips & Advice
• How Stokastic Sims Are Better Than and an NBA DFS Optimizer
• NBA DFS Sims: Single-Lineup Simulator Is a Lineup-Building Godsend
• NBA DFS Contrarian Strategy: How to Use Stokastic Ownership Projections
• NBA DFS Late Swap Strategy with Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims
• NBA DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Large Field GPP Strategy

Josh Giddey and Nikola Vucevic are in play regardless of who is available, though if White remains out, they will be more intriguing since their upside will be more attainable. This game has a 236.5 total, so we will want to pay attention to both sides.

Indiana is without Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard, in addition to the other long-term injuries that we are all aware of by now. This makes Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin secondary targets, with T.J. McConnell a differentiation piece due to his elevating salary.

Jarace Walker is a strong discount dandy who should maintain his relevance, even as other injury news is released for the 23 teams playing tonight. Ideally, he will be with the first five tonight, though that was the case for just three of the last five games. In his last two outings, one as a starter (29.3 minutes) and one off the bench (21.5), he averaged 9.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.0 combined blocks and steals. Considering the opponent, he should be in the mix for low-20s fantasy points off the bench and pushing for upper 20s as a median projection if he is starting.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks

If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV shines.

Take a bet like Bennedict Mathurin to have fewer than 20.5 points tonight. On the surface, it’s a simple play. But behind the scenes, it’s a +EV bet, meaning it’s mathematically profitable based on the best odds available. Portfolio EV finds these +EV bets and allows you to bet them at high volume with just a couple clicks, maximizing your bankroll’s long-term profitability.

Digging into the details on Portfolio EV, Mathurin is currently listed at Hard Rock at +125 for over under 20.5 points, with other books using that threshold in the -105 range, which is a NEGATIVE 3.4% expected ROI. Half of the operators have elected to increase the target to under 21.5 points, though the -118 to -125 odds are also rather punitive.

To a casual bettor, these all seem about the same, but to the savvy better, everything other than the current Hard Rock offering of +125 for under 20.5 points at a 10.9% expected ROI is a hard pass.

Let Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting, pitting the books against each other and finding the best values from a top-down betting approach.

Tonight Mathurin projects for 20.7 points, which is a tick above the Hard Rock number, though that is the median outcome and clearly offset by the +125 against the “true odds” of +103. Since returning from an 11-game layoff, Mathurin made nine starts, averaging 31.1 minutes, 14.0 field goal attempts, and a below-average 50.8% effective field goal rate. In this stretch, he had three games (33%) of 21 or more points, but he had more than 15 only twice in his last six games, with highs of 19 and 20 points. Going against Chicago is a favorable matchup for opposing offenses, though this is still a wager to target on Hard Rock ASAP, as it is likely to disappear soon.

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