Thursday brings another elimination game, with the Nuggets trying to find the equalizer against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Denver tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s break down the top NBA DFS picks and key lineup building blocks. These selections reflect the most up-to-date data — and for live updates, be sure to visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, May 15
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets vs. Thunder
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 64.96 | FanDuel: 61.92
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 78.7% | FanDuel: 83.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $13,800 | FanDuel: $17,200
Golden State reached the end of the line last night, while Boston forced a Game 6 against the Knicks in New York on Friday. Indiana and Minnesota are already in the respective Conference Finals, with their opponents to be determined over the next couple of days.
The Nuggets are 4.5-point underdogs in Denver, searching for the series equalizer after losing in Oklahoma City on Tuesday. The teams alternated victories until the Thunder took care of business at home, with a 112-105 victory.
Nikola Jokic has done everything in his power to carry the team, but the three-time and current MVP has not had much help from the shallow roster. Expect something north of 20 field goal attempts tonight and 15 rebounds in a performance that will hopefully extend this second round series so DFS gamers have more basketball.
Jamal Murray has been the other bright spot, though Your Ol’ Pal continues to go against him. Despite the tough matchups against Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace, the former Kentucky Wildcat has three games with 20-plus points while averaging 41.2 minutes, 17.2 field goal attempts, 21.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.8 “stocks” (combined steals and blocks). It is hard to truly avoid anyone when crafting 50-plus lineups on a single-game slate, so let personal preference be your guide with Murray.
Be sure to tune into Stokastic’s NBA Live Before Lock at 8 p.m. ET tonight for all of the up-to-date analysis and breaking news.
Michael Porter Jr. has been dealing with a left shoulder injury that makes it painful for him to raise his arm over his head. That impacts his rebounding, and even though it is his off arm, his shooting has been dreadful. Game 3 was his only effective outing, when he was 7-for-10 (70%) from the field and 5-for-6 (83%) from 3-point range. In the other four games, he was 5-for-32 (16%) and just 2-for-21 (10%) from beyond the arc.
Russell Westbrook has the best chance to gain minutes over Porter, though he needs to avoid Westbrick mode. Peyton Watson has played at least 14.5 minutes per game in this series aside from Game 3, when he logged 8.7. He is a solid discount dandy and could also play over Porter and Westbrook with a little luck on the court.
Aaron Gordon has been outstanding, morphing his game to whatever the team needs. He has a pair of 22-point games while also topping 14 rebounds twice, averaging just over two stocks per tilt. He rarely has bad shooting nights in the postseason, so a little extra volume would go a long way towards making him a “must have” tonight.
Christian Braun is getting minutes but deferring on offense and chipping in with rebounding, defense and other non-DFS related efforts. Being on the court is half the battle, but we have yet to see a truly impactful game from him this series. Julian Strawther is likely to see a few minutes, though it would be a shock if he had more than a handful of fantasy points outside of mop-up duty.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for this sample Showdown slate:
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Thunder at Nuggets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 52.91 | FanDuel: 53.33
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 54.4% | FanDuel: 72.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $14,200
Based on early projections, the best lineup on FanDuel has Gilgeous-Alexander in the multiplier slot and does not include Jokic. For DraftKings, the dynamic duo appears together, though both are in the flex slot.
The best Jokic lineup on the blue site is about 5 points lower than SGA’s, and the highest-projected lineup eschewing either is over 35 points shy of the optimal. On DraftKings, the best lineup without either is 15 points short of perfection.
Gilgeous-Alexander won the scoring title for the regular season with 32.7 points per game, and he has been outstanding in this series with 28.2 per game while averaging 38.4 minutes of run. We can see from the lead paragraph of this section that there are a plethora of potential paths to success, but the best ones all involve the presumptive NBA MVP.
The Thunder have significantly more options than the Nuggets, which leads to different decision points since salaries change with the players rather than guessing at which Nuggets will produce fantasy goodness outside of the “big three” of the postseason. Jalen Williams has the best all-around game and is the secondary offensive option. Chet Holmgren is no slouch in the scoring department, and with him roving on defense, he had three or more stocks in all but one game. Rebounding is his biggest variable in unlocking upside.
Isaiah Hartenstein continues to be a double-double threat each game, and while he has only one this series, he is averaging 11.8 points and 9.6 rebounds, along with three assists and 1.8 stocks. Plus he is doing solid work against Jokic in the paint and on the blocks.
From this point, things branch out with Caruso and Dort getting work as the defensive stoppers, while Wallace is a discounted version of Caruso at the guard spot. Aaron Wiggins is a wild card, though he has been chipping in just enough to be interesting, and if he hits a couple shots or lucks into a steal or two, he would be a slate-breaker, and he also has the best path to mop-up duty.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about winning in NBA DFS, you know the edge comes from having the right tools. The same principle applies to sports betting — and that’s where Portfolio EV steps in.
Take Chet Holmgren under 9.5 rebounds tonight, for example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value when compared to the best odds available across the market. But the real strength of Portfolio EV isn’t about finding just one good bet — it’s about consistently finding dozens. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale up, place a high volume of +EV bets, and let the math do the heavy lifting.
Just like you wouldn’t count on one DFS lineup to ship a GPP, you don’t count on one bet to carry your night.
Portfolio EV is built for long-term profitability. It helps you spot market inefficiencies, compare lines across books and generate a steady stream of +EV bets. It doesn’t chase heaters, but rather trusts the numbers, follows a process and builds sustainable profit over time.
In the five games this series, Holmgren corralled six, 11, 16, 13 and eight errant caroms. This was accomplished in 28, 26, 40, 29 and 34 minutes. Currently, he projects for 31.6 minutes and 8.79 boards. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, though the math is still on the side of the under.
